The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

All of this is predicated on Sturgeons assertion that Scotland would have a vote for independence if there is no single market membership (because membership is different to access, everyone can access it, apart from sanctioned individuals I imagine).

I believe the statistics are that 44% of UK exports are with the EU, so whilst it will be painful to re-orient that to other destinations it should be easier to achieve somewhere around 20% whilst retaining a percentage of the trade that currently exists with the EU. Particularly with the purchasing power of the Chinese and Americans.

Scotland would need to re-orient a significant proportion of 64% of its exports which is with the UK. Currently only 15% of Scottish exports go to the EU. Whilst remaining shackled by the EU's trade regulations, no bilateral deals like the UK will be able to do.

Scotland has (including North Sea oil and gas) a minimum of a £9bn deficit per year. So if you lose trade and you start with a deficit it will result in higher taxes, or lower public spending, or both. Without taking into account any share of UK national debt Scotland will likely be required to take as part of a break up.

The EU, Canada and the US are all blanking the UK at the moment concerning trade deals all waiting until Article 50 is triggered. The UK will find itself in a very weak negotiating positon after it is.

Should this result in Brexit lite. Then there will be no worries about trade between Scotland/England. We'll then move on to other realities and practicalities of leaving the EU. Would those be enough to call another Scottish referendum, who knows. Everything is up in the air because no one knows where they stand so far.

A hard Brexit however, will result in an immediate and quick Scottish referendum. Loads of rumours on twitter from 'sources' saying an 'EU over UK' faction in Scottish Labour ( notably those that support Corbyn too ) will be challenging Dugdale in the very near future. Be an interesting development if true.

As for the rest debt/deficts/higher taxes etc. Change the record, you're starting to sound like George Osborne a few weeks back.

TrickyTree83

Herzlos wrote: »

We're already seeing savage cuts to public spending as part of Project Pain, so I'm not sure if going it alone can make it any worse. We get lots of EU grants that I'm positive will not be recouped by Westminster.

I can't see trade with England being cut entirely, if it does, then England<-> EU trade will have taken a similar cut and we'll ideally be able to take some of that over.

Even if trading becomes more expensive, trading with England will still be cheaper than trying to trade half way round the world.

Maybe I'll re-phrase it. I don't think independence for Scotland is strictly the best thing, but I think it's the least bad option we've been presented with. I can only see any meaningful Brexit bringing England down, so the question is more whether we want to get dragged down with them, or if we want to step aside and try to move on on our own?

:wall:

The economic impact is just a numbers game.

Take the hit (bigger than brexit will be for rUK) and take your chances.

I'm losing the will to live trying to explain all this now.

The sum plan I've heard off indy supporters on this thread so far has basically been "we'll ideally be able to take some of that over", just doesn't work if you're talking about financial services. See ESMA ruling on the 19th Jul 2016.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

The EU, Canada and the US are all blanking the UK at the moment concerning trade deals all waiting until Article 50 is triggered. The UK will find itself in a very weak negotiating positon after it is.

Should this result in Brexit lite. Then there will be no worries about trade between Scotland/England. We'll then move on to other realities and practicalities of leaving the EU. Would those be enough to call another Scottish referendum, who knows. Everything is up in the air because no one knows where they stand so far.

A hard Brexit however, will result in an immediate and quick Scottish referendum. Loads of rumours on twitter from 'sources' saying an 'EU over UK' faction in Scottish Labour ( notably those that support Corbyn too ) will be challenging Dugdale in the very near future. Be an interesting development if true.

As for the rest debt/deficts/higher taxes etc. Change the record, you're starting to sound like George Osborne a few weeks back.

You must be in some kind of nationalist echo chamber, around you and online and in the media you follow. Discussions are already taking place with the US, Canada and national governments of the EU member states.

I can't argue with you anymore, you're impossible.

You just ignore, deflect and re-frame.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Gave you the evidence for the SNP campaigning in the EU referendum trying to persuade pro-indy voters who wanted to leave the EU to vote to remain in the EU.

Scroll back through if you missed it. It's there, in the media and even on the SNP's own website.

See robin - they just ignore it.

Sodding la-la-land.

So you think all SNP voters who voted to Remain have been brainwashed ? And that they might not actually want to remain in the EU ?

I don't care who you think is in la-la land. But at least I'm not suggesting I'm some sort of voting mind reader who can 'just tell' the EU vote in Scotland is tainted. It's as valid as the Leave vote elsewhere, which in many people's mind was tainted by complete b*****cks of promises, big red buses, hysteria over immigration and Turkey.

La-la land indeed.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

So you think all SNP voters who voted to Remain have been brainwashed ? And that they might not actually want to remain in the EU ?

I don't care who you think is in la-la land. But at least I'm not suggesting I'm some sort of voting mind reader who can 'just tell' the EU vote in Scotland is tainted. It's as valid as the Leave vote elsewhere, which in many people's mind was tainted by complete b*****cks of promises, big red buses, hysteria over immigration and Turkey.

La-la land indeed.

If you actually read what I posted and understood it you wouldn't have said:

"you think all SNP voters who voted to Remain have been brainwashed"

Thanks for illustrating my previous post.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

You must be in some kind of nationalist echo chamber, around you and online and in the media you follow. Discussions are already taking place with the US, Canada and national governments of the EU member states.

I can't argue with you anymore, you're impossible.

You just ignore, deflect and re-frame.

No, I just read the news occasionally. As should you since you have a vested interest.

America will not negotiate a new trade deal with Britain until the UK's future relationship with the European Union becomes clearer. US Trade Representative Michael Froman said on Monday that the two countries cannot launch negotiations on bilateral trade and investment deals until more is known about any newly-shaped agreement between Britain and Europe.

http://www.itv.com/news/update/2016-07-25/no-uk-us-trade-deal-until-britains-eu-relationship-clearer/

NEW Trade Secretary Liam Fox was slapped down by the Canadians today – after boasting of “very fruitful” talks over a post-Brexit deal. Canada’s International Trade Minister Chrystia Freeland said the talks last week were “positive” but they were largely about the country’s deal with the EU as a whole.


Canada wants to sign an EU-wide Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) in 2017.
But the deal needs to be approved by each EU member states’ individual parliament, as well as both the European Council and European Parliament.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1464259/canadians-slap-down-trade-secretary-liam-fox-for-boasting-about-post-brexit-deal/

The European Commission has appointed a chief Brexit negotiator but has made clear he will not engage with Britain until Article 50 is formally triggered...

...He is known to be a purist on the principles of the single market as a fundamental tenet of the EU. When he was European commissioner for internal markets in 2013, Mr Barnier attacked UK eurosceptics for attempting to negotiate a “pick and mix” approach to EU financial services regulation while remaining in the EU.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/european-commission-appoints-chief-brexit-negotiator-but-says-he-wont-speak-to-uk-until-article-50-a7157731.html


As I posted. They're waiting to see what the EU/UK deal will be first. I'm hardly deflecting and reframing. The UK is being blanked until Article 50 is triggered.

I did say you'd get bored and wander off.

TrickyTree83

Yeah and stuff like this doesn't exist according to you.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jul/20/us-seeking-bilateral-trade-deal-with-uk-to-press-eu-on-ttip

In the weeks since the referendum result, Mike Froman, the US trade representative, has held discussions about a UK-US trade deal with Dr Fox’s predecessor as business secretary, Sajid Javid, and other senior government figures.

Republicans in Congress have also called on President Obama to speed up efforts to reach a trading pact with Britain after the vote for Brexit.

Dr Fox is expected to hold talks with Mr Froman this week before flying to America as early as next weekend.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/16/theresa-may-plans-for-brexit-trade-deals-with-the-usa-and-austra/

According to you, discussions were not taking place. How can anyone trust what you say when you call it one way and it ends up another.

But anway, enough.

I get bored and wander off because you are impossible, you don't acknowledge anything that doesn't suit you.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

If you actually read what I posted and understood it you wouldn't have said:

"you think all SNP voters who voted to Remain have been brainwashed"

Thanks for illustrating my previous post.

You're wandering into the realms of semantics. You said the entire EU vote in Scotland is tainted somehow almost entirely due to the SNP. But fail to mention all the other parties in Scotland also advocating a Remain vote, and indeed Ruth Davidson was on national tv doing just that in extremely strong terms.

Your argument only stands up if you can conclusively prove that SNP voters were really hoping for a Leave vote but voted otherwise. Bearing in mind of course, that up until about 1am on 24th June when the Newcastle/Sunderland results came in, everyone thought a Remain vote would win anyway. Even you I'd assume.

Herzlos

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

:wall:

The economic impact is just a numbers game.

Take the hit (bigger than brexit will be for rUK) and take your chances.

I'm losing the will to live trying to explain all this now.

The sum plan I've heard off indy supporters on this thread so far has basically been "we'll ideally be able to take some of that over", just doesn't work if you're talking about financial services. See ESMA ruling on the 19th Jul 2016.

The plan is largely "We're going to get shafted mercilessly by Brexit and an unchecked Tory party with no competition. We'll get less shafted going it alone and trying to get back into the EU".

Plus I'm not talking about just moving financial services (which is apparently a major fall-back plan for a lot of financial institutes), we also don't know if England will get a new financial passport, as there's no incentive for the EU to generate one when France & Germany can use it to encourage the financial services to come to them.
Should we get a hard Brexit with no financial passporting, the EU financial traders will be given some destination choices; Dublin, Edinburgh, Paris, Berlin. Edinburgh becomes the easiest for them through pure geography & culture.

We can do pretty much everything England can do, with less overhead to the EU in the even of a hard Brexit. I can see lots of English companies moving staff North of the border to get back into the EU.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Yeah and stuff like this doesn't exist according to you.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jul/20/us-seeking-bilateral-trade-deal-with-uk-to-press-eu-on-ttip


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/16/theresa-may-plans-for-brexit-trade-deals-with-the-usa-and-austra/

According to you, discussions were not taking place. How can anyone trust what you say when you call it one way and it ends up another.

But anway, enough.

I get bored and wander off because you are impossible, you don't acknowledge anything that doesn't suit you.

At least one of those articles is well out of date. I'm sure discussions are taking place, but productive discussions are another matter entirely. They're all waiting on Article 50.