The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Herzlos

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Denying London access to a market to which you're allowing Singapore, Hong Kong, etc... without having trade deals in place with those countries/regions wouldn't stand up to a legal challenge. That's why it was a boon for the UK financial industry in the event of 'no deal' between the UK and the EU after article 50.

It all depends on what deal we actually make. They may want us to apply for it from scratch, and twiddle our thumbs for 5 years whilst it's taken care of. There will be minimal incentive for the EU to hurry things along.

And even if the EU does open itself up for a legal challenge, you could have lost your financial industry before it gets settled.

You're putting a lot of reliance onto getting something that is in no way guaranteed.

TrickyTree83

Herzlos wrote: »

I've never heard of that, beyond warnings not to try and strategically vote out.

Are there more of these pro-indy pro-leave voters that have been mentioned in papers than, say, pro-leave voters who admit that they didn't either (a) understand the question or (b) expect to win?

If you're claiming bad votes on the Remain side, you need to factor in the bad votes on the Leave side. Which is likely to have skewed the numbers further? Bear in mind that after the polls closed, the top google searches in the UK were "What is the EU?" and "What happens if we leave the EU?".

How does anyone know who did those google searches?

On balance of probability I'd put it down to the youth with their smartphones. But no one can know for sure.

There's an article further back in this thread by a newspaper (I forgot which one) where they interviewed someone from Lossiemouth who was asked to vote remain when they actually wanted to vote to leave as it would trigger another independence referendum if the rest of the UK voted to leave. So Scotland had to make sure they voted to remain according to the SNP. A strapline alluding to that was plastered all over the SNP's official website too.

Bad votes on the leave side, sure but if the nationalists are to be believed those people would be in the minority wouldn't they? So even if there were they would be a smaller number on the minority side of the vote.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Don't start rowing backwards now.

Well then, why don't you listen to what Fox has to say in that case.

TrickyTree83

Herzlos wrote: »

It all depends on what deal we actually make. They may want us to apply for it from scratch, and twiddle our thumbs for 5 years whilst it's taken care of. There will be minimal incentive for the EU to hurry things along.

And even if the EU does open itself up for a legal challenge, you could have lost your financial industry before it gets settled.

You're putting a lot of reliance onto getting something that is in no way guaranteed.

Personally - I want and EEA/EFTA arrangement. But if we don't get that I would think the PM will test the legality of denying London access but allowing it for Singapore and Hong Kong under WTO rules and the ECJ before invoking article 50 in order to protect UK jobs.

You need to understand the UK is going to do everything it possibly can to protect its position and industry, no care will be given to an independent Scotland if your sole plan for economic prosperity is to take jobs from the rest of the UK. It's not going to be as straightforward as you seem to think either.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Well then, why don't you listen to what Fox has to say in that case.

Everyone is aware that deals cannot be signed before the UK leaves the EU.

Discussions can, and are taking place to thrash out what the deals would look like. This is the plan the UK government is undertaking.

https://next.ft.com/content/cde1dc04-4c31-11e6-8172-e39ecd3b86fc

Ignore it if you want.

Edit: Well done on re-framing the discussion on the UK's situation with regards to non-EU trade deals. Nothing to do with an independent Scotland.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Everyone is aware that deals cannot be signed before the UK leaves the EU.

Discussions can, and are taking place to thrash out what the deals would look like. This is the plan the UK government is undertaking.

https://next.ft.com/content/cde1dc04-4c31-11e6-8172-e39ecd3b86fc

Ignore it if you want.

Edit: Well done on re-framing the discussion on the UK's situation with regards to non-EU trade deals. Nothing to do with an independent Scotland.

You posted that the UK/Liam Fox wasn't being blanked, giving the impression he was swanning about the US and Canada doing 'fruitful' deals. Happy to correct you on that point.

Fox is looking for a hard Brexit, lets make no bones about it. This is directly relatable to Scotland and this thread in terms of possible future consequences.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

You posted that the UK/Liam Fox wasn't being blanked, giving the impression he was swanning about the US and Canada doing 'fruitful' deals. Happy to correct you on that point.

Fox is looking for a hard Brexit, lets make no bones about it. This is directly relatable to Scotland and this thread in terms of possible future consequences.

Not being blanked though are they.

You must be able to read and google for it. As I said, can't sign the deals, but you can work them out unofficially. That is the aim, and that is what Liam Fox's job is right now. He's been making platitudes about being able to sign loads of deals with loads of people very easily and has been told to tone it down by Number 10. The aim of the job remains the same.

I never said anything like 'fruitful' deals. You've made that up.

It has no consequence for an independent Scotland inside the EU, short of we'll buy and sell to these countries to make up for what's lost with iScotland.

This has no relevance to whether or not Scotland should or should not be independent since Sturgeon has said EU single market membership is the red line, therefore iScotland will only exist in a tariff and hard border world with the rest of the UK. If the UK won't accept freedom of movement, they damn sure won't accept porous borders with Scotland in Schengen.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Not being blanked though are they.

You must be able to read and google for it. As I said, can't sign the deals, but you can work them out unofficially. That is the aim, and that is what Liam Fox's job is right now. He's been making platitudes about being able to sign loads of deals with loads of people very easily and has been told to tone it down by Number 10. The aim of the job remains the same.

I never said anything like 'fruitful' deals. You've made that up.

Fox did, and was slapped down according to the newspaper article I highlighted for you.

It has no consequence for an independent Scotland inside the EU, short of we'll buy and sell to these countries to make up for what's lost with iScotland.

This has no relevance to whether or not Scotland should or should not be independent since Sturgeon has said EU single market membership is the red line, therefore iScotland will only exist in a tariff and hard border world with the rest of the UK. If the UK won't accept freedom of movement, they damn sure won't accept porous borders with Scotland in Schengen.

Well then it will be goodbye to Scotland, NI and possibly Gibraltar.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Fox did, and was slapped down according to the newspaper article I highlighted for you.



Well then it will be goodbye to Scotland, NI and possibly Gibraltar.

I don't think the UK will break up at all.

However.

NI and Gibraltar are not Scotland, they haven't voted in (on a 52% turnout mind) a nationalist devolved government, so lets not presume to speak for them shall we.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I don't think the UK will break up at all.

However.

NI and Gibraltar are not Scotland, they haven't voted in (on a 52% turnout mind) a nationalist devolved government, so lets not presume to speak for them shall we.

Brexit puts the Good Friday agreement in jeopardy, N Irish people are applying for Irish passports so fast that the Passport offices can't keep up. Enda Kennedy has said to expect a border poll ( reunification referendum ) if there are to be returning borders. Even better for NI, they can hold a referendum any time they like.

As for NI not having a nationalist govt in power. Yes, well..

A new team of ministers has been appointed to the Northern Ireland power-sharing executive.Most of the posts have been shared out between the two biggest parties, the Democratic Unionists and Sinn F!in.

That depends how you define it.


Spain will cause trouble over Gibraltar. They're already making noises about it.