The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

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:wave:

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Herzlos wrote: »

I don't get this though; it's an economic wonder for the UK to split off, whilst it'd be a disaster if Scotland split off?

Sure, we'll probably take a bit of a hit if trading with England becomes harder, but on the converse; if trading between the England and the EU becomes harder, there's more incentive for English Businesses to cross the border to interact with the EU again.

The reason I want Scotland to be independent because I value the EU, in terms of trade, legislation and movement, whilst I feel that the Tories are the worst thing that can happen to the country.

Sure, there's no guarantee that we'd get into the EU properly, but I can't see us doing any worse than under a hard Brexit. I'd love to stay in the UK (within the EU) but that option is gone now.

I'd agree with most of that - except of course the Tories bit given I'm a life long Conservative voter.....:o

Thrugelmir

Herzlos wrote: »

I don't get this though; it's an economic wonder for the UK to split off, whilst it'd be a disaster if Scotland split off?

Nicola seems distracted by the lure of independence rather than day to day management of the economy. May well come back to bite her at a later date. The challenges were never addressed at the last referendum debate. As time ticks by is going to get harder and harder to put forward a case.

Shakethedisease

robin61 wrote: »

Yes I agree. Bottom line is that I am not prepared to just sit back and say nothing while the [STRIKE]SNP[/STRIKE] 62% of Scottish voters from all parties who voted to remain in the EU tries to blackmail the rest of the UK and ignores decisions they do not like.

Fixed that for you. You're in danger of accusing folks like Hamish of being SNP'ers. And that would never do.

TrickyTree83

Herzlos wrote: »

I don't get this though; it's an economic wonder for the UK to split off, whilst it'd be a disaster if Scotland split off?

Sure, we'll probably take a bit of a hit if trading with England becomes harder, but on the converse; if trading between the England and the EU becomes harder, there's more incentive for English Businesses to cross the border to interact with the EU again.

The reason I want Scotland to be independent because I value the EU, in terms of trade, legislation and movement, whilst I feel that the Tories are the worst thing that can happen to the country.

Sure, there's no guarantee that we'd get into the EU properly, but I can't see us doing any worse than under a hard Brexit. I'd love to stay in the UK (within the EU) but that option is gone now.

All of this is predicated on Sturgeons assertion that Scotland would have a vote for independence if there is no single market membership (because membership is different to access, everyone can access it, apart from sanctioned individuals I imagine).

I believe the statistics are that 44% of UK exports are with the EU, so whilst it will be painful to re-orient that to other destinations it should be easier to achieve somewhere around 20% whilst retaining a percentage of the trade that currently exists with the EU. Particularly with the purchasing power of the Chinese and Americans.

Scotland would need to re-orient a significant proportion of 64% of its exports which is with the UK. Currently only 15% of Scottish exports go to the EU. Whilst remaining shackled by the EU's trade regulations, no bilateral deals like the UK will be able to do.

Scotland has (including North Sea oil and gas) a minimum of a £9bn deficit per year. So if you lose trade and you start with a deficit it will result in higher taxes, or lower public spending, or both. Without taking into account any share of UK national debt Scotland will likely be required to take as part of a break up.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Fixed that for you. You're in danger of accusing folks like Hamish of being SNP'ers. And that would never do.

Give over.

When are you going to accept that the EU referendum result in Scotland is tainted? Never? Despite there being evidence to support it?

Shakethedisease

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Nicola seems distracted by the lure of independence rather than day to day management of the economy. May well come back to bite her at a later date. The challenges were never addressed at the last referendum debate. As time ticks by is going to get harder and harder to put forward a case.

Nicola has been pro independence for decades. The SNP in power for 9 years and she still has amazing approval ratings

Scottish voters // On how well N. Sturgeon is doing as First Minister:

Well: 62% (+3)
Badly: 28% (-5)
(via YouGov / 20 - 25 Jul)

As time ticks by it becomes more and more likely that the UK will follow some sort of Norwegian model, ( if Theresa May can actually sell it ) which will no doubt mean current independence support off the back of the Brexit vote takes a hit. However, should that happen then we'll get down to some real nitty gritties about just how strongly Scottish voters individually feel about their EU citizenship being removed, and just how much Scottish people are looking forward to Conservative governments for years to come.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Give over.

When are you going to accept that the EU referendum result in Scotland is tainted? Never? Despite there being evidence to support it?

You have no evidence. All Scottish parties were pro Remain. Scotland voted Remain. The SNP had the biggest section of voters who voted to Leave.

I'm not following your logic, people voted how they voted for a myriad of reasons, and you're no mind reader of entire electorates.

TrickyTree83

Gave you the evidence for the SNP campaigning in the EU referendum trying to persuade pro-indy voters who wanted to leave the EU to vote to remain in the EU.

Scroll back through if you missed it. It's there, in the media and even on the SNP's own website.

See robin - they just ignore it.

Sodding la-la-land.

Herzlos

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

So if you lose trade and you start with a deficit it will result in higher taxes, or lower public spending, or both. Without taking into account any share of UK national debt Scotland will likely be required to take as part of a break up.

We're already seeing savage cuts to public spending as part of Project Pain, so I'm not sure if going it alone can make it any worse. We get lots of EU grants that I'm positive will not be recouped by Westminster.

I can't see trade with England being cut entirely, if it does, then England<-> EU trade will have taken a similar cut and we'll ideally be able to take some of that over.

Even if trading becomes more expensive, trading with England will still be cheaper than trying to trade half way round the world.

Maybe I'll re-phrase it. I don't think independence for Scotland is strictly the best thing, but I think it's the least bad option we've been presented with. I can only see any meaningful Brexit bringing England down, so the question is more whether we want to get dragged down with them, or if we want to step aside and try to move on on our own?