The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

beecher2

elantan wrote: »

We're you a no voter as well Beecher?

If so what changed your mind ?

If you don't mind sharing

No, I was a very strong yes voter, I was devastated with the result. My conversation in Belfast was a long time ago when I was still voting Labour. A lot has changed since then, but I still dont see myself as a nationalist or want independence for the reasons some seem to assume.

Thrugelmir

mrginge wrote: »

When do you think the referendum will be held?

When the SNP think that it will be a yes.

As there won't be a third time.

beecher2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Just before any of you get too excited about my conversion- I can't emphasis enough how much I hate the idea of an Indy Scotland - to the point that I would feel physically sick having to vote for it.

Ifeel far more British than I do Scottish.

I firmly believe that Scotland should not be independent from the UK and that we'll be worse off if we are, just as I firmly believe the UK should not leave the European Union and we'll be worse off if we do.

If forced to choose between two absolutely awful scenarios, a permanently poorer and diminished UK outside the EU and more importantly single market, or a permanently poorer and diminished Scotland outside the UK but still in the EU, I'd choose the iScotland in the EU.

To be clear, the level of short to medium term pain for Scotland in that scenario would be little short of spectacular, but that's better than the death by 1000 cuts we'd endure staying with the UK as it sank into irrelevance over decades outside the Single Market.



I absolutely don't want independence and hope a deal can be done that doesn't force our hands.

But that deal must include full single market access and unrestricted freedom of movement for Scotland.

As much as I hate to say it, Sturgeon's red lines are spot on, lets hope she has the courage of her convictions when it comes to deal time.

I know it would be a very reluctant vote, and although I welcome your potential vote, I also feel really sorry for you being forced into it. I can't face the thought of another referendum so soon after the last one as it really was one of the most emotional events of my life, but we're in a position we didn't want to be in so best get on with it.

TrickyTree83

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Just before any of you get too excited about my conversion- I can't emphasis enough how much I hate the idea of an Indy Scotland - to the point that I would feel physically sick having to vote for it.

I feel far more British than I do Scottish.

I firmly believe that Scotland should not be independent from the UK and that we'll be worse off if we are, just as I firmly believe the UK should not leave the European Union and we'll be worse off if we do.

If forced to choose between two absolutely awful scenarios, a permanently poorer and diminished UK outside the EU and more importantly single market, or a permanently poorer and diminished Scotland outside the UK but still in the EU, I'd choose the iScotland in the EU.

To be clear, the level of short to medium term pain for Scotland in that scenario would be little short of spectacular - but that's better than the death by 1000 cuts we'd endure staying with the UK as it sank into irrelevance over decades outside the Single Market.



I absolutely don't want independence and hope a deal can be done that doesn't force our hands.

But that deal must include full single market access and unrestricted freedom of movement for Scotland.

As much as I hate to say it, Sturgeon's red lines are spot on, lets hope she has the courage of her convictions when it comes to deal time.

Interesting. We're actually closely aligned up to the point of having to have the single market and freedom of movement as red lines.

I would prefer the single market and the freedom of movement but don't consider them to be red lines at all. A deal will be done if not in time for the break away from the EU then soon after, there is little that would need to be changed in the UK in order to comply with regulation since we're already compliant.

In a situation where a deal has been done for single market membership, either in EEA/EFTA/bilateral deal, would be sufficient I would have thought and you would be fine staying as part of the UK since although freedom of movement wouldn't be there. Visa restrictions probably wouldn't be there for travel, possibly for settlement though.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

beecher2 wrote: »

we're in a position we didn't want to be in so best get on with it.

Agreed.

I still maintain most Yes voters have absolutely no idea of the level of cuts to benefits, public services, and public sector employment/wages that would be required for an indy Scotland to stay solvent and keep our deficit down to a level the markets would tolerate to lend to us.

Even with much business heading north to stay in the EU we'd go through perhaps a decade of needing to cut an amount equivalent to the entire local authority budget for the whole of Scotland from our spending each year without the Westminster subsidy.

Or about 60 times Scotland's contribution to Trident - or 3 times the total projected Scottish military/defence/intelligence spend - or half of Scotland's NHS budget - each and every year for up to a decade.

The Yes campaign last time around were thoroughly dishonest about the implications of a Yes vote and the suffering it would bring to ordinary people for quite a long time (just as the Brexit camp were equally dishonest in the EU ref).

As a handy hint for all you Yes campaigners - it would be good to see a lot more honesty this time around because like it or not the No campaign were right about the short to medium term economics - and people need to be prepared if you don't want to see an awful lot of social discontent spilling over into the streets when the inevitable consequences happen.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

you would be fine staying as part of the UK since although freedom of movement wouldn't be there. Visa restrictions probably wouldn't be there for travel, possibly for settlement though.

Settlement is key for us.

Scotland is sitting on a demographic time-bomb and urgently needs mass immigration to defuse it.

CLAPTON

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Settlement is key for us.

Scotland is sitting on a demographic time-bomb and urgently needs mass immigration to defuse it.

without immigration how much will the workforce fall in scotland over the next 5 years?

how much is wage inflation in scotland at the moment?

do you really believe there will be no significant productivity improvements in scotland over the next 20 year?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

CLAPTON wrote: »

without immigration how much will the workforce fall in scotland

The number of retired people in Scotland will increase by 100% by 2039.

Assuming we maintain the immigration levels we've had from the EU so far, the number of working age people in Scotland is forecast to rise by just 1% by 2039.

Without that immigration the number of working age people falls rapidly - it decreases by about 200,000 by 2039.

If we only maintain current levels of pre-Brexit immigration our dependency ratio (and thus the costs every worker has to pay in tax to support the elderly population) increases by almost 40% by 2039.

In order to compensate for this without a bigger society, bigger economy and bigger workforce for government to tax, we'd need to increase productivity (and wages/taxes) by the same near 40% by 2039 - and that's 40% in real terms after you adjust out inflation.

The chances of that happening are frankly, well..... Lets just say unless Willy Wonka moves here with a half million Oompah Loompahs.... It's just not going to happen.

UK labour productivity has increased by just 16% in the last 16 years.

You seem to be suggesting it's probable that Scottish productivity will increase by 40% in just 23 years - whereas any objective analysis would conclude it's not even remotely plausible.

The reality is Scotland needs mass immigration - of a level far beyond what we have achieved so far - and we need it urgently. As that pensions deficit, and increase in the dependency ratio, is not some future problem.

It's already begun to happen and it'll only get worse with every year that passes.

CLAPTON

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

The number of retired people in Scotland will increase by 100% by 2039.

Assuming we maintain the immigration levels we've had from the EU so far, the number of working age people in Scotland is forecast to rise by just 1% by 2039.

Without that immigration the number of working people falls rapidly - it decreases by about 200,000 by 2039.

If we only maintain current levels of pre-Brexit immigration our dependency ratio (and thus the costs every worker has to pay in tax to support the elderly population) increases by almost 50% by 2039.

In order to compensate for this without a bigger society, bigger economy and bigger workforce for government to tax, we'd need to increase productivity (and wages/taxes) by the same near 50% by 2039 - and that's 50% in real terms after you adjust out inflation.

The chances of that happening are frankly, well..... Lets just say unless Willy Wonka moves here with a half million Oompah Loompahs.... It's just not going to happen.

lots of things can happen in 23 years time : no point in panicking and smashing our standrad of living for gains in 23 years

however

without immigration how much will the workforce fall in scotland over the next 5 years?

how much is wage inflation in scotland at the moment?

do you really believe there will be no significant productivity improvements in scotland over the next 20 year?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

CLAPTON wrote: »

lots of things can happen in 23 years time : no point in panicking and smashing our standrad of living for gains in 23 years

UK labour productivity has increased by just 16% in the last 16 years.

You seem to be suggesting it's probable that Scottish productivity will increase by 40% in just 23 years - whereas any objective analysis would conclude it's not even remotely plausible.

The reality is Scotland needs mass immigration - of a level far beyond what we have achieved so far - and we need it urgently.

As that pensions deficit, and increase in the dependency ratio, is not some future problem.

It's already begun to happen and it'll only get worse with every year that passes.

Also immigration doesn't "smash" our standard of living.

It vastly enhances our standard of living.

A bigger society and economy provides far more opportunity for our young, it provides far more opportunity for our businesses and employees, and it provides far more cultural enrichment to our society.

I'm all for Scotland adopting Schengen border free travel and becoming fully integrated into Europe, including the Euro, as only then will we truly unleash the power of the Single Market.