The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

In the last Scottish parliament elections the SNP returned a minority government whereas previously there was a majority. Or did the real world imagine that?

The D'Hondt voting system. The SNP did so spectacularly well in the FPTP section, that the list system made up the difference in Labour/Conservative/Green/Lib Dem MSP's.

Being up 6% in the constituency vote, and down 2% on the list vote ( with many second votes going to Greens ), was enough for the system to kick in and rebalance with Labour and Conservative seats. Majority governments in Holyrood are flukes.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

The rest of the UK, at 64% of Scottish national exports. Sourced from Scottish government papers.

So according to Scottish nationalists Scotland therefore thinks that voting to leave the EU and try to retain some single market access where 44% of UK exports go is a good enough reason to vote to leave another union (UK) where 64% of Scotlands exports go to favour a single market into which less than 46% of their exports go, because outside the UK the USA is Scotlands biggest trading partner as far as nation states go!

Sound logic there, very sound.

Are those exports that go TO England for consumption, or those that just pass through England on their way to ports ? Care to clarify ? Whisky alone is a quarter of UK food and drink exports and is clearly a Scottish product.

But does it count as an 'export' to England, or a 'UK export through English ports'. Genuine question.

CLAPTON

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Are those exports that go TO England for consumption, or those that just pass through England on their way to ports ? Care to clarify ? Whisky alone is a quarter of UK food and drink exports and is clearly a Scottish product.

But does it count as an 'export' to England, or a 'UK export through English ports'. Genuine question.

what point do you want to make
that scotland would be indifferent to the loss of the rUK market?

Tromking

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Whether it is next year or five years from now, the SNP dominating politics in Scotland, and the Conservatives in Westminster will only ever end up with Scottish independence.

There won't be any slide backwards towards ( whats left of ) unionist Labour support in Scotland unless a left leaning Corbyn-esque Labour party looks like winning the next General Election. Support for the political day to day running of the union via Westminster is waning very badly in Scotland. England/Wales couldn't care less in the main these days if Scotland left either.

I notice you fail to mention the burgeoning support for the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party. The Nationalists have seen off Scottish Labour, I get that, but its not whole story is it?

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Turkey has little to do with it. Westminster might try and ignore a Scottish referendum which results in a Yes vote. But other countries both and outwith the EU won't. I rather suspect England and Wales are a little frightened of their Brexit result, and the idea that both Scotland and NI will leave the UK off the back of it isn't a nice thought. Would like some hand holding jumping off that cliff.

The loss of Scotland and NI would be a disaster for the UK establishment, everyone else would get on with things fairly quickly. The political and economic fallout of the break up of the Union would be most keenly felt in the exiting nations of course.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

No you've got the wrong end of the stick. It was pro-indy supporters such as myself, and even the SNP White paper that kept pointing out and insisting that there was a possible EU/Brexit vote coming up, and Scotland could potentially be out of the EU anyway.

I was told I was living in fantasy land every time I brought it up here. In fact any pro-indy person who brought the Conservative promise of an EU referendum up, anywhere I saw online and elsewhere was told exactly the same. Labour were leading in the polls at the time. The Conservative manifesto didn't come out until April 2015.

So according to pro-independence supporters the choice was, be independent and out of the EU, or remain part of the UK and possibly leave the EU?

The Scottish people then chose to remain part of the UK and take the chance on an EU referendum vote.

Why does that position now change because it didn't pan out the way you would like? Compeltely ignoring what the Scottish people said in 2014, only 2 years ago.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

It's part of a wider fracturing of UK politics that's been going on slowly but surely in Scotland since the Conservatives took power in 1979. Scotland is part of the UK on the basis of a political union. I think the Brexit vote is perhaps a step too far just to suck up, especially with the Trident vote on top of it yesterday.

The only fracturing has been in Scotland. Labour is still in power in Wales and Conservative power remains largely the same in England. The fracturing is down to Scottish nationalism and it's poisonous message within the rest of the UK. Just like UKIP within the EU parliament.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Then you obviously don't know how the Holyrood voting system works.

Where's the biggest swing (acceleration) here:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2016/scotland/results

Vote share percentage –

SNP: +1.1 in constituencies, - 2.3 in the regional lists

Conservatives: +8.1 in constituencies, +10.6 in the regional lists

Scottish Labour: -9.2 in constituencies, - 7.2 in the regional lists

Scottish Greens: +0.6 in constituencies, +2.2 in the regional lists

Liberal Democrats: -0.1 in constituencies, no change in regional lists

Turnout was 55.6 per cent.

https://www.holyrood.com/articles/inside-politics/scottish-parliament-election-2016-result

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Wishful thinking.

The above vote swing is contradicting this acceleration in favour of the SNP that you speak of.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Really...



http://www.timeslive.co.za/world/2016/07/15/Brexit-sparks-surge-in-European-support-for-EU

The polls on the EU by IFOP contradict the polls accepted by the EU commission. You would think one of them is correct. Ignoring polling, the new anti-EU mayor of Rome flies in the face of what IFOP are suggesting. I suspect you'll see more of the same across the EU as national elections pan out over the course of the next 12 months.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Survation/Scottish Daily Mail 1,055 47% 41% 12% 6% 25–26 Jun 2016
Panelbase/Sunday Times 626 47% 44% 8% 3% 25 Jun 2016
Survation/Daily Record 1,002 48% 41% 9% 7% 24–28 Jun

Yes, Half of Scotland are now 'nationalist' according to those bold figures above. You're making this about the SNP. But are forgetting the Greens and those unaffiliated with any political party. EU nationals who voted No last time round will vote Yes next time.

If you actually look at the statistical data in those polls there's actually very little movement from 2014. If these polls were representative of a new independence referendum it would indicate that a vote for independence would likely lose again, the undecided 9.1% would likely side with the status quo if statisticians are to be believed.

The polls also show there is a majority of people in those polls who do not think that an indy2 referendum should be held. So if you held a referendum on holding an indy2 referendum the answer would be no? Does that mean Scottish nationalists won't use these statistics now?

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Neither do I.

So you acknowledge that Scotland voted to remain in the UK in 2014 and took a decision with the rest of the UK in the EU referendum?

Shakethedisease wrote: »

However those people are now in the minority.

Based on what? Your opinion? The polls don't appear to show this at all.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

They were, but were told they were living in fantasy land that a Brexit would ever happen, questioning that a referendum would ever be held.

Reducing their vote to a single issue about the European Union, so they didn't possibly vote to remain part of the UK for any other reason other than - according to you - a misplaced belief that remaining in the UK would guarantee EU membership?

I wouldn't put down the Scottish electorate in this way, I think they were well aware of the possibility and that they chose to remain part of the UK regardless.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Representing the wishes of 62% of your electorate isn't what I would call dirty tactics. It's good politics.

So telling people to vote to remain in the EU to get another indy referendum when they themselves want to vote to leave the EU is good politics?

Shakethedisease wrote: »

More wishful thinking.

The momentum appears to be moving in that direciton. And it's absolutely bang on about the right to hold a referendum and the right to secede.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

UKIP does a pretty good English 'nationalist' job to be honest. But immigration control is their topic of choice. I'm thankful the SNP aren't in any way, shape or form like them.

Even if we stretch the truth and call the UK Independence Party an English nationalist movement, they still only represent 13% of the UK populace (included people from Wales.. love to know how that one works). Again, it is Scottish nationalism that is poisonous, the SNP voice is much louder and much more frequent than UKIP.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

And the above is so woefully uninformed I don't know where to start.

Which bit? I don't see that any of it is.

I posted bullet points earlier on in the thread that haven't been shot down, they're factual points that go against the grain of the Scottish nationalist narratives. No one's shut them down yet, and proponents of an indy2 ref on these boards have also acknowledged them as being issues that need to be addressed. You ignore them.

Nicola Sturgeon absolutely went out of her way to convince pro-indy EU leave voters to vote against their conscience in a UK wide EU referendum.

Scotland gets a better deal than Wales, Northern Ireland and England out of the UK. Scotland has a less voters to MP's in Westminster and is the 2nd largest national voice in the UK parliament.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

As I've said before in the post above. I think you're a little scared of the prospect of being 'England and Wales' in isolation in the world hence the 'don't leave and the sneery 'no-one will ever want Scotland anyway' narratives. It's a little sad.

I'm not scared about Scotland leaving at all, it'll probably save the rest of the UK some money.

The Scottish nationalist arguments for independence are hollow and do not stand up to questioning. It was the same in 2014 just with different questions.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Are those exports that go TO England for consumption, or those that just pass through England on their way to ports ? Care to clarify ? Whisky alone is a quarter of UK food and drink exports and is clearly a Scottish product.

But does it count as an 'export' to England, or a 'UK export through English ports'. Genuine question.

Rest of UK exports account for 64% of all exports from
Scotland (international and rUK combined).

http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0049/00493251.pdf

Come on now.

Does this stand up to scrutiny? Scottish government papers clearly stating the vast majority of Scottish trade is with the rUK.

What's the magical SNP solution for this if there's a hard border and tariffs in place?

Because if there's no tariffs then... what's the point in independence apart from some mis-guided thought that somehow the rest of the UK is out to get you. Or that Scotland is somehow picked on more than the rest of the UK. I don't see people in England or MP's in England moaning like crazy about Hinckley Point. But you can be damn sure Scottish people will benefit from the electricity it produces.

.string.

CLAPTON wrote: »

what point do you want to make
that scotland would be indifferent to the loss of the rUK market?

Speaking of which:
https://www.englishwhisky.co.uk/
nothing is for ever


[Waits patiently for Shakey to reach for her Whisky Bucket and breath deeply]

Shakethedisease

Tromking wrote: »

I notice you fail to mention the burgeoning support for the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party. The Nationalists have seen off Scottish Labour, I get that, but its not whole story is it?

The loss of Scotland and NI would be a disaster for the UK establishment, everyone else would get on with things fairly quickly. The political and economic fallout of the break up of the Union would be most keenly felt in the exiting nations of course.

Burgeoning support for the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party stands at 22% compared to the SNP's 46.5%. It is unlikely to go any higher. Ruth peeled off the hard core unionists and Blair leading Labour supporters. She has limited mileage now.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

It is unlikely to go any higher. Ruth peeled off the hard core unionists and Blair leading Labour supporters. She has limited mileage now.

Pure speculation surely? According to polls you use to defend your position the majority of people polled do not favour a 2nd indy referendum!

So how can your insights about the political landscape of Scotland be representative when the majority of people in those polls disagree with your view on actually trying to achieve independence?

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I'm not scared about Scotland leaving at all, it'll probably save the rest of the UK some money.

The Scottish nationalist arguments for independence are hollow and do not stand up to questioning. It was the same in 2014 just with different questions.

I can't reply properly as it would be quote within quotes and it's really messy to read.

So I'm going to condense this down for you. It doesn't matter what you or I think. But all the signals coming from the Scottish Govt ( which includes the Greens, Labour and Lib Dems ) is that this Brexit result has changed things.

The SNP want to stay in the EU.
Scottish Labour wants to stay in the EU
The Scottish Greens want to stay in the EU
The Scottish Lib Dems want to stay in the EU.

Scottish voters want to stay in the EU by a large margin. ALL of the parties above have a political duty to those they represent to persue remaining in the EU by whatever means necessary. Scottish Labour for instance are now advocating full fat federalism, as are the Lib Dems. Scottish Greens and the SNP might go along with that.. but the signals coming from the EU themselves, are that only with independence would Scotland remain within the EU.

Theresa May and Nicola Sturgeon are on a collision course whatever happens next. Even if I was a fully paid up unionist Conservative voter, it's as plain as day to see whatever your political persuasion. You need to accept that now. You also need to accept that 62% of the Scottish electorate, from all political persuasions from the Greens to those that normally vote Conservative are fully behind her on this one.

Neither the SNP nor the Scottish electorate are at fault when it comes to the Brexit vote. But they do have a duty to represent what they feel is in Scotland's best interests. That may not be staying in the UK.

To me it looks as if Theresa May looking for a 'UK wide approach' before hitting the Article 50 button is scared of what will happen next. And not just constitutionally regarding Scotland and NI. I'm beginning to wonder if she'll go through with it at all to be honest.

So rail and wail all you like. The Scots won't be leaving the EU quietly, and it's highly questionable if they'll be leaving it at all. The same goes for NI. If England/Wales want to stop trade flowing between Scotland/England as well as start from scratch negotiating trade deals with every other single country in the world, then by all means go for it. And good luck with the job/economic situation that will arise from it.

3 hrs ago

New SNP Scottish independence drive to launch 'within weeks'


A NEW drive to build support for independence is to launch within weeks, SNP sources have revealed...

...An SNP source said: "It's no secret that we're in a situation, post-Brexit, in which it's very important to listen to what people have to say about the case for independence. Brexit has influenced the context in which we'll be undertaking this exercise, and it is obviously a factor. But it will be going ahead, we'll be talking to the whole of Scotland."

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14626959.SNP_s_summer_independence_drive_to_launch__within_weeks_/