The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Post-Brexit-Scottish-Attitudes-Poll.pdf

Page 5.

There were 2 Survation polls. A telephone poll on the 25th June and an online one on the 29th..

And we all know what happened with telephone polls and predictions on the 23rd of June. The text I quoted from Scotgoespop is from the last poll taken on the 29th June. Your tables are from the Survation telephone poll on the 25th.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

There were 2 Survation polls. A telephone poll on the 25th June and an online one on the 29th..

And we all know what happened with telephone polls and predictions on the 23rd of June. The text I quoted from Scotgoespop is from the last poll taken on the 29th June. Your tables are from the Survation telephone poll on the 25th.

Well if you want to be like that, then we all know what happened with the EU referendum polls.

Why don't you answer some of my questions instead of asking me to constantly defend my position.

mrginge

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Well if you want to be like that, then we all know what happened with the EU referendum polls.

Why don't you answer some of my questions instead of asking me to constantly defend my position.

Don't worry about it mate. I'm still waiting to hear why the Scots will vote to leave before they know what remain actually looks like.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Lets talk about democratic unacceptabilities shall we.

You know that vote in 2014, the one where the electorate clearly knew about the EU referendum vote in advance and accepted that as a risk and voted to remain a member of the UK. Is it ok for that to be overturned on the basis of a referendum on UK membership with the EU? Do the views of millions of Scots who told you and others like you "No" in 2014 not matter?

Two referendums have been held in 2 years, and the SNP and Scottish nationalists (if they're even different) want to overturn them both.

THAT is democratic unacceptability.

Nah. People in 2014 were told and voted on the basis that the only 100% guaranteed way to stay in the EU was to vote No and stay in the UK.

That didn't turn out so well for them. Many are now reconsidering what a Brexit means now. And when it comes to the point that even people like Hamish and other's I personally know in real life..are very reluctantly reconsidering their options should it come to a second vote ( single market access ). Then it seems something pretty monumental really has changed in terms of what is and what isn't democratically acceptable to your average Scottish voter, whether they voted No last time or not.

A Brexit vote didn't just dismay SNP voters. It dismayed the majority of Scotland. Yes/No, SNP/Labour/Greens and Tory voters alike.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Well if you want to be like that, then we all know what happened with the EU referendum polls.

Why don't you answer some of my questions instead of asking me to constantly defend my position.

Because I'm hogging the board trying to reply to three or four posts one after the other. I am trying to answer your questions, but I think perhaps you're not so interested in the answers.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Post-Brexit-Scottish-Attitudes-Poll.pdf

Page 5.

Page 9.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 53.7%

No 46.3%

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

What about this then.

http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0049/00493251.pdf

Just in case you don't believe me, search the document for this:

Rest of UK exports account for 64% of all exports from
Scotland (international and rUK combined).

You've not responded.

And what about the bullet points I posted earlier in the thread. No answers to any of them?

Not only is your argument for a vote on shakey ground but the argument about which way to vote is clearly skewed against Scottish independence.

Edit:

I went and found the bullet points for you.

iScotland in the EU

- £15bn deficit in current running costs
- loss of Barnett funding (circa £24bn)
- more powers than devo max, overruled by EU regulation
- North Sea oil currently propped up by UK taxpayers will need to be paid for, or face job losses
- migration of UK jobs from Scotland
- loss of UK based contracts
- adoption of the Euro and exposure to bailout funds
- increased import costs (cost of living)
- EU membership fee
- adoption of the Schengen agreement of no internal borders
- further integration with EU members on defence, foreign policy and fiscal management to make the Euro work
- a hard border with the rest of the UK
- if no deal is reached between the UK and the EU then Scotland could be exposed to tariffs with its largest trading partner
- if businesses choose to leave the UK, out of all the 27 28 member states is Scotland really the #1 destination?
- reduced public spending, end of free HE tuition and prescriptions or higher taxes?

We can now add Trident benefits to the Scottish economy being lost.

Lets hear the Scottish nationalist answers to the above please.

Blimey, decidely George Osborne-esque about a week before the Brexit vote on emergency budgets and tax rises. Where did you find those bullet points ?

Deficit, we'll see.
Loss of Barnett is a given.
North Sea oil and jobs who knows, it's a volatile commodity.
Migration of jobs if Scotland remains in the EU will go from South to North, not the other way about.
UK based contracts lost, will then be Scottish ones instead.
No country is forced to adopt the Euro. Just commit to it at some point in the future. Sweden has been 'committed' for the last 20 years and still uses the Krona.
Borders, NI will no doubt set a precedent there for Scotland to follow.
Scotland will be a good destination. English speaking, complies with EU law already and a financial centre in place. It may not be the No1 destination, but any inward business investment is always good. Is certainly far more likely now that England/Wales are leaving the EU.
Reduced public spending etc etc. That's been happening for years anyway under the Tories and austerity.

Nicholas Macpherson

With the UK leaving the EU, there is a golden opportunity for proponents of Scottish independence to reappraise their economic prospectus. Clearly, membership of the EU will lie at the heart of it. That will enable Scotland to have access to the biggest market in the world without the uncertainties that are likely to face the rest of the UK for many years to come. It would also provide a historic opportunity for Edinburgh to develop further as a financial centre, as London-based institutions hedge their bets on the location of staff and activities. If Royal Bank of Scotland, the state-backed bank, relocates its headquarters as part of that process, that would strengthen the long-term sustainability of the Scottish financial sector....

...The Treasury was concerned in 2014 that the Scottish government’s prospectus relied on over-optimistic oil price projections. But First Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s administration has since worked to bolster its fiscal credibility.


John Swinney, Scottish finance secretary until earlier this year, was cautious about using the borrowing powers available under the existing fiscal arrangements. More importantly, he has taken steps to set up Scotland’s own independent fiscal council. There is now a much better opportunity for informed debate about public finances, taking into account changing North Sea oil production levels and wider demographic trends. The Scottish government can strengthen its credibility by setting out long-term plans for public services, public investment and social security, in particular pensions.


It also has a chance to set out a tax policy for the longer term. An independent Scotland committed to the EU would have an extraordinary opportunity to attract inward investment as well as highly skilled migrants. But, since it will be competing with Ireland, it needs a tax system that is equally competitive. That points to low corporate taxes and keeping marginal rates of income tax down. It may also point to a smaller, more efficient state.

https://next.ft.com/content/1219f41c-4456-11e6-9b66-0712b3873ae1

Get back to me when you've digested the above and looked up who wrote it.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Nah. People in 2014 were told and voted on the basis that the only 100% guaranteed way to stay in the EU was to vote No and stay in the UK.

You told us earlier you were campaigning for independence and you were telling everyone that this was a real possibility.

So either some people did know as you previously claimed and chose to remain anyway or what you told us about your campaigning was wrong.

Which is it?

TrickyTree83

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Page 9.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 53.7%

No 46.3%

Kind of moot if you don't even get a referendum because the people don't want it as explained on Page 5.

I'll spell out what I'm trying to say about the polls shall I?

Quite clearly, as the EU ref and as this discussion have demonstrated - they cannot be trusted at all.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Blimey, decidely George Osborne-esque about a week before the Brexit vote on emergency budgets and tax rises. Where did you find those bullet points ?

I wrote them. It's a brain dump of things I've read/learnt when trying to educate myself on the Scottish independence question.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Deficit, we'll see.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-35757787

"The deficit ran to almost 10% of Scotland's output - nearly double the level for the UK as a whole."

Shakethedisease wrote: »

North Sea oil and jobs who knows, it's a volatile commodity.

Wolrd bank estimates on crude oil $ prices up to 2025

https://knoema.com/yxptpab/crude-oil-price-forecast-long-term-2016-to-2025-data-and-charts

Moderate recovery, but not enough to pay the bills in Scotland.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Migration of jobs if Scotland remains in the EU will go from South to North, not the other way about.

Why? What evidence is there for this?

I understand there is evidence so far that some jobs will be leaving the UK to head to the continent.

I would think only services could feasibly move to Scotland in such a scenario. For other industry, moving across a non-EU border would seem like an unnecessary hassle to business. Say you're in Scotland and you make 1000 cars but 900 of those cars are to be sold within the rest of the EU, that's 900 cars to ship across non-EU rUK to the continent. Or set up in the continent and transport just 100 there. You can see the dilemma if your business trades over road or rail.

Then there's the question of Scottish business being affected by not having access to the UK market, which is 64% of your total exports.

Seems to be there would be more job losses for Scotland than job gains.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

UK based contracts lost, will then be Scottish ones instead.

I think you've misunderstood. UK government/business puts out to tender a contract to provide/manufacture something in the UK, Scotland leaves the UK, contract no longer applies to Scotland. Scotland will have to put their own contracts out to tender, and pay for them from its own pocket.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

No country is forced to adopt the Euro. Just commit to it at some point in the future. Sweden has been 'committed' for the last 20 years and still uses the Krona.

Well you couldn't keep Sterling since you wouldn't have fiscal control. I doubt the UK would consider the plight of an independent Scotland in the setting of BoE monetary policy.

So you would either need to set up your own currency, or join the Euro, which is largely the same issue with a minor voice on Euro matters. For an example of the problems this poses, see Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Cyprus. Setting up your own currency, I'm not sure how this would work.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Borders, NI will no doubt set a precedent there for Scotland to follow.

Northern Ireland will still be a member of the UK, the common travel area is an existing agreement between Ireland and the UK. Nothing to do with Scotland. But you want the UK who you've spurned to give you the same deal?

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Scotland will be a good destination. English speaking, complies with EU law already and a financial centre in place. It may not be the No1 destination, but any inward business investment is always good. Is certainly far more likely now that England/Wales are leaving the EU.

Perhaps in services, but if the UK government gets single market membership (because access is always possible) as part of the Brexit negotiations, you'll be independent and competing on a level playing field. No one will move. Scotland won't even be in the top 3 destinations. Edinburgh will be in line behind Paris, Frankfurt, Madrid, Rome. Your country will be - in terms of population size - on a par with Finland. In terms of GDP, it looks like this:

Finland: 38,968 GDP per capita (2005)
Scotland: 16,944 GDP per capita (2005)

Similar size population, Finland has an oil fund and Scotland does not. And at the moment you would need to pay to keep the oil industry afloat let alone store monies from it to start a fund.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Reduced public spending etc etc. That's been happening for years anyway under the Tories and austerity.

Not on the scale that an independent Scotland will require. It will truly be a socialist bonfire of epic proportions.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Nicholas Macphersonhttps://next.ft.com/content/1219f41c-4456-11e6-9b66-0712b3873ae1

Get back to me when you've digested the above and looked up who wrote it.

John Swinney MSP (SNP) says pretty much the same things you've said, and boldly claims that the SNP is now financially prudent and is no longer scared of borrowing.

@John and his SNP / Scottish nationalist supporters - what the hell happened in 2014 - 2015? A yearly deficit of 9.7% of GDP!!!!! In the same year the UK's was 4.9% of GDP. And experts claim the UK is in a precairious financial position, I'd be overjoyed to see a possible Scottish credit rating, it'd probably put this whole idea to bed.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-35757787