The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

kabayiri

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

And I've stated quite clearly that if the UK retains full single market membership/access there is no need to break up the UK.
...

Just to be clear, if the Brexit offers what you describe above, then you will no longer support the SNP independence cause?

Do you think you represent a typical Scottish view in that respect, or atypical?

I can understand why Sturgeon and the SNP would want to maximise their chances of achieving independence during this turbulent period, but you don't strike me as committed to the independence cause?

.string.

On the matter of financial services, there is a bit of good news in that regard:
Landmark ruling by a European Union watchdog that's set to give Brexit boost to British banks

Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/article-3698065/Landmark-ruling-European-Union-watchdog-s-set-Brexit-boost-British-banks.html#ixzz4EwIqXdDu

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

kabayiri wrote: »

Just to be clear, if the Brexit offers what you describe above, then you will no longer support the SNP independence cause?

I don't support the "SNP/Independence cause" today.

But I'll reluctantly lend them my vote if it's the only way to stay in the EU and single market.

And yes, full membership of the single market, with freedom of movement, etc, being protected would be enough for me to stay in the UK.

Do you think you represent a typical Scottish view in that respect, or atypical?

I think I'm in the segment of voters that represent the 8% swing towards Indy since the Brexit vote.

But to narrow that down a bit - there are enough of us who are pro-Union and also pro-EU that if forced to choose would choose the EU.... that a second Indy vote would win if the UK attempts to pull Scotland completely out against it's will.

I can understand why Sturgeon and the SNP would want to maximise their chances of achieving independence during this turbulent period, but you don't strike me as committed to the independence cause?

Far from it.

I'd much prefer Scotland to stay in the UK.

I'm a Unionist, come from a family of Unionists, have always voted Conservative and Unionist party.

But I'll also choose national prosperity over nationalism every time.

And Scotland would be better off remaining in the EU/Single Market rather than remaining in a diminished UK that was outside it.

TrickyTree83

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I don't agree, especially when 64% of Scottish trade is with the rest of the UK, including services.

The membership fee will be an additional cost to the Scottish exchequer whilst at the same time damaging trade with almost two thirds of Scottish trade. Tax revenue will drop in an independence scenario, increasing any deficit that already exists. There would need to be a truly dramatic shift from the UK to Scotland or a re-orienting of Scottish trade to the EU in order to just compensate for that, then there's the need to improve upon your current situation to deal with the fiscal black hole that you acknowledge exists.

But what about the above?

There is concern in Ireland over the deal the UK gets as that will impact them, therefore a Scottish independence vote will also mean a similar impact upon Scotland, if not worse, none of that has been factored into the fiscal black hole.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

But what about the above?
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I'll take that risk.

In my opinion the UK outside the single market or EU is a busted flush, permanently lower GDP, long term recession/depression, mass unemployment, etc, and all of that will have very negative consequences to Scotland as a result.

So if that's the route the UK decides to go down then we want out.

Maybe that means more pain for us in the short term, maybe that means we thrive and prosper as thousands of businesses pour north across the border.

Either way - I view Scotland's long term future as best served in the EU/Single Market rather than as part of a diminished and increasingly isolated UK - so if you make me choose one that's how I'll be voting if given the chance to.

TrickyTree83

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I'll take that risk.

In my opinion the UK outside the single market or EU is a busted flush, permanently lower GDP, long term recession/depression, mass unemployment, etc, and all of that will have very negative consequences to Scotland as a result.

So if that's the route the UK decides to go down then we want out.

Maybe that means more pain for us in the short term, maybe that means we thrive and prosper as thousands of businesses pour north across the border.

Either way - I view Scotland's long term future as best served in the EU/Single Market rather than as part of a diminished and increasingly isolated UK - so if you make me choose one that's how I'll be voting if given the chance to.

It'll be much worse for Scotland than it would for the UK if Scotland left the union. Even with single market access and no single market access for the UK. My rationale for that is Scottish business is selling 64% of its business into a market of 60 million. UK business is selling whatever the corresponding market share is into a market of 5 million. It's obvious where the disparity will be.

"Standard Life in Edinburgh is an example of a company that has 90% of its UK customers outside Scotland, which is why the pensions, savings and investment giant is making plans to move operations south of the Border, if it feels it has to."

"The Better Together campaign cites Strathclyde University research suggesting nearly 267,000 jobs are linked to trade with the rest of the UK. Of those, 45,000 are in manufacturing and 43,000 are in finance."

Granted those are from 2014, the reality now will still be relatively similar.

An ESMA ruling yesterday has basically meant that the UK financial services could possibly continue to sell within the single market without current passporting/single market access.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/article-3698065/Landmark-ruling-European-Union-watchdog-s-set-Brexit-boost-British-banks.html#ixzz4EwIqXdDu

Services would be the main type of business I would expect to consider a move to Scotland, manufacturing would most likely move to the continent as distribution would be vastly easier from that geographic position. If there's little need for financial services to move, there's not much else that will plug the hole of damaging that 64% of Scottish trade, and even less that will plug the hole of the fiscal black hole of - at a minimum to maintain current Scottish living standards - £6bn per year. Even at that minimum Scotland will be racking up debt as there is still a deficit.

It just doesn't work does it, for it to work it really needs a blue sky situation where huge proportions of UK business, services and manufacturing moves to Scotland instead of the continent to offset what will be lost and to plug existing spending gaps. A diminished UK will buy less from Scotland again impacting Scottish tax revenue and it's not beyond the realms of possibility that Scottish business will move from Scotland to elsewhere on the continent or even to the UK if their business demands it.

With all of that taken into account it's more of a risk to leave the UK and remain in the EU.

kabayiri

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

...
Either way - I view Scotland's long term future as best served in the EU/Single Market rather than as part of a diminished and increasingly isolated UK - so if you make me choose one that's how I'll be voting if given the chance to.

You're a mercenary willing to leap on the SNP bandwagon to achieve your objectives.

I respect that.

I've lost faith in the purpose of the EU, and see more growth and opportunity outside.

That's also a selfish viewpoint.

I also don't really care whether Scotland stays in the Union or leaves. We can trade either way.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

With all of that taken into account it's more of a risk to leave the UK and remain in the EU.

That's your opinion - we'll have to agree to disagree.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

kabayiri wrote: »

You're a mercenary willing to leap on the SNP bandwagon to achieve your objectives.

I respect that.

I'm a Unionist.

But I don't limit my Unionist feelings to the UK....

I've lost faith in the purpose of the EU, and see more growth and opportunity outside.

Whereas I think the solution to Europe is more of Europe.

A United States of Europe would suit me just fine in the long term and if Scotland had to leave the UK and join the Euro, Schengen border free zone, etc, I'd be all for it.

I also don't really care whether Scotland stays in the Union or leaves. We can trade either way.

Well that's exactly the argument the Brexiters made about Britain and the EU, so I don't see they can have it both ways now claiming trade with Scotland would be jeopardized if we remained in the EU and left the UK.

Either way I'll take my chances with the EU rather than the UK if forced to choose between the two.

TrickyTree83

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

That's your opinion - we'll have to agree to disagree.

Having gone through so much data, quotes, articles and analysis of the Scottish independence question your pro-indy point of view on this forum has been the most reasonable. Still with huge question marks over its ability to succeed since the successful scenario requires a shift of industry on a historically unprecedented scale that damages Scotlands largest trading partner.

That begs the question as to whether the benefits, if this economic miracle did happen, over the consequences of losing substantial amounts of that 64% of trade.

Most of the other arguments on this thread are purely emotive and don't go anywhere near attempting to address the facts. So I commend you for that, and thank you for engaging with me.