The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

your pro-indy point of view on this forum has been the most reasonable.

For the avoidance of doubt I'm not pro-Indy.

I just see it as a last resort to Scotland being dragged out of the EU against our will.

.string.

I'm not convinced that joining the EU is a must for the SNP, but more of a tool to garner votes.

The picture they have painted on EU membership includes a pro-rata continuing share of the UK discount and no compulsion to join the Euro plus seamless joining directly after leaving the UK; unrealistic expectations, but forming a later basis for changing course.

TrickyTree83

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

For the avoidance of doubt I'm not pro-Indy.

I just see it as a last resort to Scotland being dragged out of the EU against our will.

Apologies for the confusion, I wasn't attempting to portray you as 100% pro-indy, just that your point of view puts you into the pro-indy camp.

Edit: Subject to UK negotiations, although I don't think you'll be given that chance.

TrickyTree83

.string. wrote: »

I'm not convinced that joining the EU is a must for the SNP, but more of a tool to garner votes.

The picture they have painted on EU membership includes a pro-rata continuing share of the UK discount and no compulsion to join the Euro plus seamless joining directly after leaving the UK; unrealistic expectations, but forming a later basis for changing course.

I'm vehemently against anything SNP after having read into what they get up to, how they act and portray themselves and the lies they peddle.

It wouldn't surprise me one bit for them to push for an independence referendum before the UK has any idea what deal it will get from the EU to take advantage of the opportunity. Then if there was a veto on Scottish membership to the EU they would shrug their shoulders and rejoice in achieving their single issue party aim.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Apologies for the confusion, I wasn't attempting to portray you as 100% pro-indy, just that your point of view puts you into the pro-indy camp.

Edit: Subject to UK negotiations, although I don't think you'll be given that chance.

Hamish is good with the economics ( albeit within a very narrow context such as Kevin Hague's graphy things )...less so when it comes to the politics. A due respect to him, but he's gotten most of the politics wrong since 2011 saying that there wouldn't be a first referendum. But here we all are, looking at a highly likely second one less than 2 years later.

And anyway, I read with high amusement a poster making the case for Scotland leaving the UK on the other thread. We should just ignore any prophecies of doom and gloom if Scotland leaves... since no one will know under which terms Scotland would be leaving the UK.

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Conversely - how can it be right when the terms of leaving are not known?

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I think most leave voters were generally quite accepting that there would be a short term blow.

Given events since the vote it does appear that the liklihood of disaster that the experts were predicting grows less and less. And certainly not the economic armageddon scenario you were putting forward on this thread with over 800,000 repo's and a level of unemployment of 12%.

I agree with every word you say in this particular context.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I'm vehemently against anything SNP after having read into what they get up to, how they act and portray themselves and the lies they peddle.

It wouldn't surprise me one bit for them to push for an independence referendum before the UK has any idea what deal it will get from the EU to take advantage of the opportunity. Then if there was a veto on Scottish membership to the EU they would shrug their shoulders and rejoice in achieving their single issue party aim.

What exactly is it that the SNP get up to that you don't agree with ?

Shakethedisease

.string. wrote: »

I'm not convinced that joining the EU is a must for the SNP, but more of a tool to garner votes.

The picture they have painted on EU membership includes a pro-rata continuing share of the UK discount and no compulsion to join the Euro plus seamless joining directly after leaving the UK; unrealistic expectations, but forming a later basis for changing course.

The SNP have been hugely pro-EU for decades regardless of votes it garners. You're wrong on this one.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Hamish is good with the economics ( albeit within a very narrow context such as Kevin Hague's graphy things )...less so when it comes to the politics. A due respect to him, but he's gotten most of the politics wrong since 2011 saying that there wouldn't be a first referendum. But here we all are, looking at a highly likely second one less than 2 years later.

And anyway, I read with high amusement a poster making the case for Scotland leaving the UK on the other thread. We should just ignore any prophecies of doom and gloom if Scotland leaves... since no one will know under which terms Scotland would be leaving the UK.





I agree with every word you say in this particular context.

I'll never forget looking at the statistics Hamish put forward for the economic argmageddon, probably as long as I live. It was a number of orders of magnitude higher than that of the HM Treasury 'severe shock' scenario which was widely derided. However the information he's using on this thread with regards to the Scottish independence question does tie in with what I've come across, hence my acceptance of it, but my disagreement with his solution to it.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

What exactly is it that the SNP get up to that you don't agree with ?

Wanting to overturn a legitimate 2014 vote, there was no mis-information as you claimed. Better Together were absolutely right that Scottish EU membership (if that is the be all and end all of the Scottish question) as part of the UK would have been lost.

As a result of the 2014 referendum meaning Scotland remained in the UK, Scotland was then invited to participate as a member of the UK in the UK's referendum on EU membership and is now denying the result claiming Scottish views should be taken in isolation on a UK wide referendum.

The SNP are now pushing for an independence referendum in both parliaments and the media despite not knowing the outcome of any UK negotiations. Thus not allowing the people of Scotland to make an informed choice, just between an independent Scotland or something else. A biased situation.

Nicola Sturgeon urging people of Scotland who want independence but also wanting to leave the EU to vote for remain in order to achieve another independence referendum by the back door.

Turning the SNP into the party of democratic unacceptability in attempting to overturn 2 legal referenda when considered in their correct context and not through the distorted lens of the SNP.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I'll never forget looking at the statistics Hamish put forward for the economic argmageddon, probably as long as I live. It was a number of orders of magnitude higher than that of the HM Treasury 'severe shock' scenario which was widely derided. However the information he's using on this thread with regards to the Scottish independence question does tie in with what I've come across, hence my acceptance of it, but my disagreement with his solution to it.

Kevin Hague has an agenda just as WingsoverScotland does. And never the twain shall meet. Like you put forward yourself, many Yes voters in Scotland do expect a short term 'shock' to the system.. no pain, no gain.

However, ALL predictions so far in terms of Scotland leaving the UK never, ever get further than highlighting the 'could's and the 'mights' of this short term shock. GERS is a yearly set of accounts which Kevin Hague bases his figures on, full of estimates and guesswork ( as the GERS publication notes itself ). Not any sort of mid to long term economic plan or proposals.

You say it all yourself on the other thread. The terms of the UK leaving the EU are unknown, so ultimately then, must be the terms of Scotland leaving the UK.

Scotland’s post-independence fiscal consolidation should take only five years (one parliamentary cycle), lifting her economy on to a high productivity, high growth path by shifting resources from consumption to investment. That’s painful in the immediate short term but will allow Scotland to escape the ball and chain of the UK’s endemic low productivity. I doubt if the larger UK could consolidate as quickly – it never has. By contrast, look at Finland in the 1990s following the collapse of the Soviet Union, its main trading partner. Between 1990 and 1993, Finnish output declined by 13 per cent. Yet by 1997, output had fully recovered while the budget was headed to a consistent surplus.

Besides, the economic status quo is no longer an option for Scotland. Britain’s likely expulsion from the Single Market implies inward investment to the UK will drift away, something that will hurt Scotland hard. An independent Scotland inside the EU would be better positioned to craft the incentives needed to retain this inward investment. Scotland doesn’t want independence to live beyond its means. It wants sovereignty to turn itself into an economic powerhouse.

http://www.cityam.com/245697/independent-scotland-inside-eu-would-economic-powerhouse

Single market access will be the trigger point for any future Scottish referendum once Article 50 is invoked. Lets hope May, Johnson, Fox and Davies secure it in some form.

ps Am not getting into any debates about GERS again. Hamish and I have been round the block and back again with that for years. I have no interest in doing so again.