The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Dee_Best

Shakethedisease wrote: »

If people vote for it. Sure they can.

They didn't vote for it though and they're still not.
Certainly not in enough numbers to absolutely guarantee that another go would do it and get independence over the line.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

No longer major parties in Scotland I'm afraid. That's why there's a problem.

That's where you're wrong, because they are.
In the 2017 GE the SNP got only 36.9% of Scots votes.
Labour & Conservatives combined got 55.7%.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

You shouldn't have an issue with that given what you're saying above.

No issue at all.
There is no evidence whatsoever that (as I said before) there is sufficient support for a new independence referendum.

Shakethedisease

Dee_Best wrote: »

They didn't vote for it though and they're still not.Certainly not in enough numbers to absolutely guarantee that another go would do it and get independence over the line.

That's where you're wrong, because they are.
In the 2017 GE the SNP got only 36.9% of Scots votes.
Labour & Conservatives combined got 55.7%.

But a third of 2017 Labour voters do want a second referendum and would vote yes ?( Ashcroft poll 5th August )

A return to the polls is favoured by more than one third of 2017 Labour voters, more than half of EU Remain voters, and by more than one in five of those who voted No to independence in 2014.....


...One third of Labour voters, a majority of EU Remain voters and 18% of those who voted No to independence last time round said they would vote Yes.

https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/08/my-scotland-poll-yes-to-independence-takes-the-lead/#more-16041

Your figures are well out of whack which sadly makes your argument fall flat on it's face. Not all would be Yes voters are SNP.

Dee_Best

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Your figures are well out of whack which sadly makes your argument fall flat on it's face. Not all would be Yes voters are SNP.

Why are you conflating two different things?

You said that Labour & the Conservatives are "No longer major parties in Scotland" which I have proven wrong.
At 55.7% they are indeed both a major force - or would you prefer I showed you a prettily-coloured map to better demonstrate their influence?
The figures I provided are the latest from the only polls that count - actual elections.

So you are the one "falling flat on their face" by conflating these statistics with the number who would vote whatever way in an independence referendum when that is not what you were discussing.
Please stop trying to confuse the issue in this manner, you're doing your cause no favours.

As for your assertion regarding independence voting intentions, you are reliant upon selected polls to promote your argument and as everybody knows, polls lie.
They are not accurate predictions by any means which is why different polls give different outcomes.
I suppose that's also why you are ignoring the most up-to-date poll of polls which was posted recently; because it showed that most Scots do not want independence.

In summary (and again), not enough Scots want independence to guarantee that another vote would get you independence.
All you would do in reality is push any real chance of independence for Scotland back by a whole generation.
That you seem so determined is therefore only explained by either naivety or irrational reasoning.

Shakethedisease

Dee_Best wrote: »

Why are you conflating two different things?

You said that Labour & the Conservatives are "No longer major parties in Scotland" which I have proven wrong.
At 55.7% they are indeed both a major force - or would you prefer I showed you a prettily-coloured map to better demonstrate their influence?
The figures I provided are the latest from the only polls that count - actual elections.

So you are the one "falling flat on their face" by conflating these statistics with the number who would vote whatever way in an independence referendum when that is not what you were discussing.
Please stop trying to confuse the issue in this manner, you're doing your cause no favours.

As for your assertion regarding independence voting intentions, you are reliant upon selected polls to promote your argument and as everybody knows, polls lie.
They are not accurate predictions by any means which is why different polls give different outcomes.
I suppose that's also why you are ignoring the most up-to-date poll of polls which was posted recently; because it showed that most Scots do not want independence.

In summary (and again), not enough Scots want independence to guarantee that another vote would get you independence.
All you would do in reality is push any real chance of independence for Scotland back by a whole generation.
That you seem so determined is therefore only explained by either naivety or irrational reasoning.

You're adding 2017 Labour and Tory votes together. Neither party on their own is a 'major' party in Scotland.

I stand corrected on that 30% of 2017 Labour voters supporting independence in August. The lastest poll (Nov 22 ) has them on 49% !

The standout from this poll is not that the country is now pretty much equally divided over the independence question (49% vs 51%) since that has been a consistent poll finding over a few months. Rather it is that support now stands at 71% among those aged under 35, at 49% among current Labour voters and 57% among those who voted to remain in the EU in 2016.

Most strikingly however is that 45% of respondents think that Scottish independence offers a greater opportunity to the Scottish economy compared to Brexit, while just 24% think Brexit offers the greater opportunity.

http://www.markdiffley.co.uk/election-2019-first-scottish-poll-shows-some-familiar-patterns/

We're about to have an actual election. But your previous adding of 2017 Labour and Tory voters together to prove a point is wrong I'm afraid. It's leading you into drawing entirely the wrong conclusions. The latest poll is 49/51. Margin of error 3% either way. So you can't know 'most' Scots don't want independence. The 71% of under 35's and 57% of remain voters figures are truly startling results.

But it's the last sentence you'll really want to take notice of.

Dee_Best

I guess you know when SNP supporters are getting desperate when they refuse to accept that both Labour and the Conservatives are still "major parties in Scotland".
Here's a map of the last General Election results; how much different this time will be we will soon see.


The areas not SNP yellow look significant to me, would anybody reasonably be able to argue otherwise given that evidence?
Shall we mention the four seats which were so close (less than 100 votes majority) for the SNP that they can hardly be described as "safe", with one (North East Fife) taking four recounts to arrive at a 2-vote SNP win.
Two votes!

You stick to your dreams and beliefs Shake, good on ya too.
But I (and many others) think that you're wrong and all the evidence points to you being upset. Again.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

So you can't know 'most' Scots don't want independence.

Yes I can and with a degree of certainty too.
The only polls that count are elections; the rest is just guesswork.
In the 2014 referendum where the turnout was over 84%, the result was that a majority did not want independence.
Over 55% in fact.

Despite all your "whataboutery", even the polls (guesses in other words, albeit educated/informed but still guesses) do not show a significant change since that referendum.

Thrugelmir

Is Nicloa still going to align SNP with Car Crash Corbyn? Bet the spin doctors will change tack yet again today. So so predictable.

Herzlos

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Is Nicloa still going to align SNP with Car Crash Corbyn? Bet the spin doctors will change tack yet again today. So so predictable.

Probably. She'd be stupid not to if it meant she could keep the Tories out.



She offered Labour a coalition last time (barely 2 years ago!) and Corbyn refused.

Thrugelmir

Shakethedisease wrote: »

You're adding 2017 Labour and Tory votes together. Neither party on their own is a 'major' party in Scotland.

Nor does the SNP express views held by the majority of the electorate. Though you would led to be believe that Nicola that is the voice of Scotland purely based on media coverage.

Shakethedisease

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Nor does the SNP express views held by the majority of the electorate. Though you would led to be believe that Nicola that is the voice of Scotland purely based on media coverage.

Well she certainly does when it comes to Brexit. And for 50 % of voters re independence. Also she's the First Minister. It's her actual job to speak for Scotland. I don't know which planet you live on where the UK PM doesn't speak for the UK. But as the First Minister of Scotland, she has the same mandate Boris does to speak for the nation(s).

See the Tories have just had to suspend a Glasgow candidate for Islamophobia. Not going so well is it. SNP's manifesto is as I've always suspected. Indyref2 in late 2020 no matter what. Regardless of politicing Scotland needs to minimise disruption re being out of the Single Market. The timing, for the moment, is set to coincide with EU Trade deals being signed off. Though Dec 2020 for that deal seems a little on the ambitious side. Unless Corbyn gets in of course.

Moe_The_Bartender

Shakethedisease wrote: »

See the Tories have just had to suspend a Glasgow candidate for Islamophobia.

Why did Salmond leave the SNP? Sturgeon was bricking it that his court case might have been heard before the election.