The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

kabayiri

Shakethedisease wrote: »

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Why would an iScotland be a minor player in negotiations ? You don't expand on that very well.

Circa 5 million Scots would want their side to deliver everything they want.

Circa 55 million Rest-of-UK'ers will be expecting their representatives to deliver the very best deal for 'their' side.

Post-independence, we move to being neighbours PLUS competitors.

I like Scotland a lot, but it wouldn't stop me from wanting more money to go to a loyal region like NW compared with a separatist region. Otherwise you risk further fragmentation.

Shakethedisease

antrobus wrote: »

You need a two-thirds majority of all MSPs to 'call an early election'. I don't think the SNP even have a majority.

No. Nicola Sturgeon just needs to resign. Other parties have 2 weeks to form a new gov....which they can't do since the SNP/Greens who have a majority behind them will vote anyone else down = New election.

Not that it's going to happen though. They're going to accelerate this through first then hold a quick referendum riding on the coat tails of Brexit/Boris anger.

MSPs on course to back laws for quickfire Scottish independence vote

A quickfire vote on Scottish independence is on course to be staged within Nicola’s Sturgeon’s 2020 timescale, with MSPs expected to back new laws by the end of the month which pave the way for a second referendum.

A referendum could be held within ten and a half weeks of it being called by SNP ministers when new laws are passed at Holyrood, Scottish Government Constitution Secretary Michael Russell has hinted in a letter to MSPs.

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/msps-on-course-to-back-laws-for-quickfire-scottish-independence-vote-1-5029464


There'll be nothing long or drawn out about then next one. And as far as I'm aware it's only after a referendum has been legislated for, can the UK Govt think about taking the Scottish one to court. I expect the Scot Gov are working on the premise there won't be any Sect 30 and have prepared accordingly.

Shakethedisease

kabayiri wrote: »

Circa 5 million Scots would want their side to deliver everything they want.

Circa 55 million Rest-of-UK'ers will be expecting their representatives to deliver the very best deal for 'their' side.

Post-independence, we move to being neighbours PLUS competitors.

I like Scotland a lot, but it wouldn't stop me from wanting more money to go to a loyal region like NW compared with a separatist region. Otherwise you risk further fragmentation.

So minor just based on population numbers then ? What difference really does that make when it comes to negotiations ?

iwilson16

Scotland economic case for independence last time was based on two things:

1. Oil tax revenues,
2. Maintaining frictionless trade with thier largest trading parter, rUK, since the assumed both would be in the EU.

The oil revenue has evaporated. And Brexit will make the case for independence *much* less appealing for the middle-ground that the SNP needs to convince.

I live in Scotland, and voted for No to indy, and Remain for Brexit. I (along with mostly everyone I know her) regard staying in the UK massively more important than being in Europe.

Whne the first indy vote happened the Yes campaign was *much* more organized and better funded. The No compaign took a lot longer to get organized. For most of the campaign it was much less visible. Yet despite all that, the Yes campaign lost. And they were very surprised! They did not see the quiet majority.

Next time (if it happens), the 'Remain in the UK' campaign (it wont be a yes/no vote) will be much better organized, and hopefuly better funded. The economic case (rather than the emotional case) will be much more relevant. I expect it will be more polarized as well, and more vicious, which will be sad to see.

If Scotland were foolish enough to vote for independence, then I predict it would be bankrupt after 5-10 years. It would start off with a national debt (its share ok UK debt) and an economy with a 7-9% deficit. Add to that the cost of setting up a new state, the higher welfare spending as jobs move south, and increasingly ageing population. Borrowing to service the debt will be expensive - probably at least 1-2% more than the UK pays for debt.

And what about currency? Any new Scottish currency would likely devalue 10-20%. Most if not all mortgages here will be by UK banks, so will be 10-20% more expensive.

If they want to meet EU fiscal rules for membership then there would be either massive austerity or big tax rises. How would Scotland attract investment and jobs to such an economy? More jobs and talent would stream south. Its a very easy move compared with, say, moving to continental Europe.

How would Scotland stop money flowing out the the country? Capital controls? Thats not been seen here since the 70's.

What about pensions? Would residents here have to choose where to domicile their SIPP (for tax reasons) - Scotland or UK.

I've lived here over 30 years. The thought of an independent Scotland terrifies me (whereas Brexit is just a bit annoying). I would not hesitate in selling up and moving south. Even if it means being separated from family, and if I had to sell my house for 20% less. Even if it means putting up with a Corbyn govt for a few years. I'd still be better off in the long run ...

mollycat

^^^^^ The post I could never really be bothered to type!

Well said, 100% spot on accuracy wise.

Unfortunately the indy fanatics care not a jot what damage they do to the economy, their children's future etc....it's all about displaying their irrational grudge and hatred.

molerat

I see Jim Sillars saying a 2020 vote is madness alluding to the Salmond court case having a negative impact as it will put all the SNP's dirty laundry out in the open. Of course 2021 is also problematic as the SNP could lose any mandate after the Scottish elections. The die hard indy supporters vote is not in question and the SNP Government have been busy buying more of the lower economic class but the middle earners have been hit fairly hard by both income and council tax rises, something that is unlikely to be forgotten especially as it is a glimpse to what is likely to happen in the future. Maybe it is a divide and conquer strategy by the true Scottish Nasty Party of old which is slowly coming to the fore again after the party getting where they are today by putting on a respectable front which did not go down well with the hard liners.

baldelectrician

iwilson16 wrote: »

Scotland economic case for independence last time was based on two things:

1. Oil tax revenues,

Decreasing, but still a curse for Scotland but a bonus for the UK

2. Maintaining frictionless trade with thier largest trading parter, rUK, since the assumed both would be in the EU.

When Scotland leaves the UK and joins the EU we will have 27 mates backing us up (like Ireland now), not Westminster telling us to shut up and know our place

The oil revenue has evaporated.
The next big thing is renewable energy- Scotland has upwards of 20% of the EU's potential.
As we sit here are underwater cables being installed from Scotland to the EU to sell our energy to Europe- if we stay in the UK Scotland will not see much of a dividend.


If Scotland were foolish enough to vote for independence, then I predict it would be bankrupt after 5-10 years.

Scotland has 8.4 % of the population and over 9% oif the income, but the UK has ran the county so well the UK debt has went from £700 Billion to over £2400 Billion since 2009.
The question is not if we can afford to be independent- it is can we afford to stay in the UK

And what about currency?

We can use the UK £ or the Scottish £ its up to us.


If they want to meet EU fiscal rules for membership then there would be either massive austerity or big tax rises. How would Scotland attract investment and jobs to such an economy? More jobs and talent would stream south. Its a very easy move compared with, say, moving to continental Europe.

The rules apply to joining the Euro, we need to commit to joining the Euro in the future but we have to join the ERM prior to that. Joining the ERM is not madatory


How would Scotland stop money flowing out the the country?
I think the opposite would happen as the UK would be a basket case without the Scottish economy propping it up.


What about pensions? Would residents here have to choose where to domicile their SIPP (for tax reasons) - Scotland or UK.
This is cobblers- people move to other parts of the world and getr the UK pension
The unfortunate truth is that pensions are cheaper in Scotland as we die off quicker

Even if it means being separated from family, and if I had to sell my house for 20% less.

Even if it means being separated from family, and if I had to sell my house for 20% less.
Seperated - like people in the UK who are of Irish decent......That does not happen now, another myth

Tromking

If there is to be an indyref 2, it was interesting to see Blackford being confronted with his own arguments against Brexit by a Tory MP on TV the other day. It’s going to be enlightening to hear how a iScotland in the EU/EEA/EFTA proposes to deal with a potential hard land border with a third country namely the rUK.
An independent Scotland ain’t gonna happen, or if it does the long-standing SNP policy of confirmatory referendums on the final deal will see it reversed!

Shakethedisease

Tromking wrote: »

If there is to be an indyref 2, it was interesting to see Blackford being confronted with his own arguments against Brexit by a Tory MP on TV the other day. It’s going to be enlightening to hear how a iScotland in the EU/EEA/EFTA proposes to deal with a potential hard land border with a third country namely the rUK.
An independent Scotland ain’t gonna happen, or if it does the long-standing SNP policy of confirmatory referendums on the final deal will see it reversed!

You make it sound like rUK will not have another 27 hard borders to contend with. At least Scotland would only have the one ! rUK is looking at 28 of them. Be interesting to see how rUK deals with that.


You're in a little 2014 bubble here. Time it was burst. Scotland will have the same border with rUK the rest of the EU has. Or perhaps another way of putting it.. rUK will have 28 hard borders to deal with, including Scotland. Canada and the US manage it, I daresay Scotland will be fine too with just one. rUK on the other hand.. oh dear me. Carnage and chaos abound.

Herzlos

Tromking wrote: »

If there is to be an indyref 2, it was interesting to see Blackford being confronted with his own arguments against Brexit by a Tory MP on TV the other day.

Conversely it's going to be great watching the Tories try to defend against iScotland by defending against Brexit.

It’s going to be enlightening to hear how a iScotland in the EU/EEA/EFTA proposes to deal with a potential hard land border with a third country namely the rUK.

There's no GFA equivalent so a hard border with England will be pretty easy to do. Essentially we'd be moving the border from UK-EU to Hadrians wall. We can have ferries running from Rosyth to Holland and Greenock to Eire in no time.



We may not even really need it unless England & Wales diverge too far from the EU (I'm fairly sure they won't).