The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Shakethedisease

Support for Scottish independence has risen to 50 per cent, according to a new poll . The Panelbase survey for The Sunday Times Scotland also found more respondents than not believe the Scottish economy would be better off with independence in the EU than in the UK aftera no deal Brexit.

Independence support hitting 50% and more importantly, more voters now think that economically an independent Scotland in the EU is preferable to a Scotland out of the EU while still part of the UK.

Given a choice between a no-deal Brexit and an independent Scotland, there was a 54-46 lead for independence.

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/support-scottish-independence-rises-50-20569640


It's this second finding in polling that is far more telling going forward. I see Derek Mackay's speech included the phrase 'Scotland can't afford the Union'. I expect that'll be a phrase which will be heard a lot in the coming few months should Brexit start causing job losses and/or economic chaos. Should NI be allowed to stay in the Customs Union/Single Market via a special arrangement, there will be many businesses and members of the public apoplectic that the SNP's proposal a in 2017 for a remain voting Scotland to stay in the Single Market etc was completely ignored. A Scotland can't afford the Union message will resonate very strongly.

Splits as I've alluded to before are now widening between the SNP and the overall Yes movement(s). Not over voting for independence, but because the SNP are moving nowhere near fast enough for some. However, the destination for both remains the same and I expect this will calm down once the SNP start outlining their plans for a second ref going forward. For all their 'gold standard' talk about section 30's they surely must be as aware as anyone that one won't be granted. I think they're right to play plans close to chests for now lest it take media focus off the s**tshow Westminster has become over the last wee while.

Thrugelmir

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I expect that'll be a phrase which will be heard a lot in the coming few months should Brexit start causing job losses and/or economic chaos.

Brexit isn't the only headwind. Though will be blamed for everything that occurs by default.

Sailtheworld

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Brexit isn't the only headwind. Though will be blamed for everything that occurs by default.

Brexit is likely to compound the unspecified headwinds so you’ll have to get over Brexit taking some of the blame.

Tromking

One simple question seems to have put the Nats in a spin today.
Will an independent Scotland in the EU have a hard border with England?

Shakethedisease

Tromking wrote: »

One simple question seems to have put the Nats in a spin today.
Will an independent Scotland in the EU have a hard border with England?

Well England's going to have a hard border with just about everyone, I don't suppose Scotland having only the one will bother too many of us.

That said, I expect Scotland to persue an immediate EFTA/EEA route upon independence while awaiting EU membership. It's the 'awaiting' EU membership which is likely to the first big political debate once independence occurs. This will be between parties wishing full EU membership and those happy enough with EFTA and being able to ditch CAP/CFP and follow the Norweigan model = Single Market but no customs union = no need for hard border with England.

This quote from elsewhere sums up the situation nicely.

Indeed. If it's a choice between trading with England but no-one else, and trading with England like everyone else, I know what I'd choose.

Tromking

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Well England's going to have a hard border with just about everyone, I don't suppose Scotland having only the one will bother too many of us.

That said, I expect Scotland to persue an immediate EFTA/EEA route upon independence while awaiting EU membership. It's the 'awaiting' EU membership which is likely to the first big political debate once independence occurs. This will be between parties wishing full EU membership and those happy enough with EFTA and being able to ditch CAP/CFP and follow the Norweigan model = Single Market but no customs union = no need for hard border with England.

This quote from elsewhere sums up the situation nicely.

Oh Dear.
Putting aside the impact of a hard border on ordinary people and their families, you're going to have say what percentage of Scottish trade is done with rUK.

elantan

I still think we need to have an EU referendum once we are independent

Thrugelmir

elantan wrote: »

I still think we need to have an EU referendum once we are independent

The SNP should abstain in any Brexit vote at Westminster.

Thrugelmir

Shakethedisease wrote: »

This quote from elsewhere sums up the situation nicely.

An over simplification of a complex situation.

That said, I expect Scotland to persue an immediate EFTA/EEA route upon independence while awaiting EU membership. It's the 'awaiting' EU membership which is likely to the first big political debate once independence occurs. This will be between parties wishing full EU membership and those happy enough with EFTA and being able to ditch CAP/CFP and follow the Norweigan model = Single Market but no customs union = no need for hard border with England.

Will the EU allow Scotland to cherry pick it's membership though.

Tromking

I caught the SNP finance fella, Mackay on the BBC today. As usual he was heavy on the grievance stuff but somewhat woolly on the post independence Scottish economy plans. It seems after crucifying the Tories on the reality of the EU requiring a hard EU customs border between NI and Ireland, the thought of a similar arrangement having to be in place between an independent EU member Scotland and the rUK is to ridiculous to even think about. As per last time, the referendum if it comes will see big holes in the SNP plans for a post referendum independent Scottish economy.