The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

mollycat

Arklight wrote: »

I'm not a unionist by the way. I just dislike Scottish nationalists. To me you're just Farage and the Brexit party with different accents and the same prejudice. Exactly the same shoutiness, incidentally.

Absolutely bang on!

That's the mistake rUK remainers make...they think they have an affinity with the SNP as both oppose Brexit.

They think scottish nationalists are liberal orientated, open minded socialists, rather than the isolationist and exclusionist party they are.

Shakethedisease

Arklight wrote: »

I think it's hilarious that you spent a full year running up to the last referendum predicting a huge win for Independence, based on your misunderstanding of trendlines in poll data. And then lost in the poll that actually mattered.

I'm not a unionist by the way. I just dislike Scottish nationalists. To me you're just Farage and the Brexit party with different accents and the same prejudice. Exactly the same shoutiness, incidentally.

I posted from 2011 onwards till the 2014 ref, not just for a year. I didn't predict a win though. I just really hoped for one. I also enjoyed the back and forth banter and speculation on the Scottish thread(s), including polling patterns especially when they started truly shifting upwards.... like they are doing now.

latest Panelbase poll on Scottish independence indicates that support for the union and opposition to an independence referendum is crumbling:


Yes: 49%
No: 51%

What you think of Scottish Nationalists is neither here nor there to me as long as your posts are somewhat engaging. It's a real shame sometimes that not knowing the basic stuff ( polls are 99% always based on 1000 people ) makes me snort out laughing instead.

Arklight

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I posted from 2011 onwards till the 2014 ref, not just for a year. I didn't predict a win though. I just really hoped for one. I also enjoyed the back and forth banter and speculation on the Scottish thread(s), including polling patterns especially when they started truly shifting upwards.... like they are doing now.
What you think of Scottish Nationalists is neither here nor there to me as long as your posts are somewhat engaging. It's a real shame sometimes that not knowing the basic stuff ( polls are 99% always based on 1000 people ) makes me snort out laughing instead.

I suppose Scottish nationalists don't have much to laugh about, in general.

https://yougov.co.uk/about/panel-methodology/research-qs/

Q. How big are your samples?
A. Most of YouGov's polls of the general public use samples of 2000 or 1500 respondents.

Incidentally, Yougov's methodology of using sample sizes of between 50% to 100% larger than you (completely wrongly) believe to be the norm, has proved to be very inaccurate in the last two general elections.

Survation was the most accurate poll in 2017, with a total of almost 8000 voters interviewed.

https://www.survation.com/survation-most-accurate-pollster/

You see, the thing with gloating about other people being wrong, is they actually have to be wrong in real life, not just in your head.

Anyway, this is all the same nonsense isn't it?Based on your predictions for 2014, support for Indy should be at around 12 million percent by now. Because the only opinions that Scottish nationalists care about is the opinion of other Scottish nationalists.

And the problem with choosing to live in an echo chamber, is that all you ever hear is yourself.

Shakethedisease

Arklight wrote: »

I suppose Scottish nationalists don't have much to laugh about, in general.

https://yougov.co.uk/about/panel-methodology/research-qs/

Incidentally, Yougov's methodology of using sample sizes of between 50% to 100% larger than you (completely wrongly) believe to be the norm, has proved to be very inaccurate in the last two general elections.

Survation was the most accurate poll in 2017, with a total of almost 8000 voters interviewed.

https://www.survation.com/survation-most-accurate-pollster/

You see, the thing with gloating about other people being wrong, is they actually have to be wrong in real life, not just in your head.

Anyway, this is all the same nonsense isn't it?Based on your predictions for 2014, support for Indy should be at around 12 million percent by now. Because the only opinions that Scottish nationalists care about is the opinion of other Scottish nationalists.

And the problem with choosing to live in an echo chamber, is that all you ever hear is yourself.

Most standard UK polling is based on 1000 respondents. However it's the fact that you took the time to post :-

So roughly 500 people in an online survey might want a second referendum.

.. that's the weird thing. As if you have no idea what's going on and have actually taken the poll literally, without methodology, weighting etc etc. I'm not gloating, I'm just pointing it out.

I know it can be difficult to face facts which are right in front of your face, especially when you don't like them. But they are what they are. The SNP is still in power after 12 years, and still waaaay ahead of all the other parties combined. 49 % of the Scottish electorate in your little nationalist box is getting to be a pretty tight squeeze in your mental gymnastics.

Brexit has changed things. Support for independence is rising the closer October/No Deal/Boris or Jeremy gets. The Scottish Parliament has voted for and is in the process of passing a Referendum Bill. A referendum they really do intend to hold even if there is no Section 30 forthcoming. The Scottish electorate is showing every sign now in supporting them doing just that. Those are the facts as they stand. Face them now and make things easier on yourself when the inevitable vote happens. In 2016 the SNP and the Greens promised Scotland a say and a choice when the terms of Brexit are known. Nearly there now.

Arklight

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Most standard UK polling is based on 1000 respondents. However it's the fact that you took the time to post :-.. that's the weird thing. As if you have no idea what's going on and have actually taken the poll literally, without methodology, weighting etc etc. I'm not gloating, I'm just pointing it out.

.

No it isn't. The standard UK poll uses double that and the one that's accurate uses more.

If you weren't persistently pedalling wrong information about quite basic things, endlessly, for years, you would be more credible on the issue you presumably care about. Proving that Scottish independence is just around the corner.

Shakethedisease

Arklight wrote: »

No it isn't. The standard UK poll uses double that and the one that's accurate uses more.

If you weren't persistently pedalling wrong information about quite basic things, endlessly, for years, you would be more credible on the issue you presumably care about. Proving that Scottish independence is just around the corner.

Please refer here :- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence#Post-referendum_polling


And the table that shows Scottish Independence polling since 2014. Almost all use respondent samples of around 1000 people. YouGov, Panelbase, Survation, Ipsos Mori. Latest poll being 18–20 June 2019 using 1024. Latest YouGov 24–26 Apr 2019 1029.

But I'm bored with this now. I'm sorry you didn't know the basics re polls. I only pointed it out to you since you seemed to actually be taking a poll literally in terms of only 500 people in Scotland wanting a second referendum.... rather than what polling does which is to choose 'representative' samples and extrapolate.

Shall we move on ? You're floundering a bit here and in the big scheme of things it doesn't really matter. The polling experts such as Sir John Curtice have analysed the last few months data and have come to the conclusion that Remain voters in Scotland are increasingly likely to vote for independence.

Sir John wrote: "In short, not only have recent polls suggested that there has been something of an increase in support for independence in recent months, but also that this rise has occurred entirely among those who voted Remain (and those who did not vote in 2016)."


..the analysis indicates Remain voters are now in a majority in favour of independence, at 51% for and 42% against.

Sir John added: "It would seem that the Brexit impasse has motivated some Remain supporters in recent months to re-evaluate their attitudes towards the union."

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/sir-john-curtice-brexit-deadlock-pushing-scottish-remain-voters-to-independence-1-4957405

He thinks it might be a tipping point for independence support. Now if you'd like to argue with Curtice's analysis feel free. But don't shoot the messenger ( me ). It's best you're prepared for what'll happen next and at the moment denial of all pertinent facts doesn't seem to be getting you very far. You're still stuck in 2010-land somewhere regarding the SNP.

Boomslang

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Most standard UK polling is based on 1000 respondents.

etc etc from Shakey.........

But then you have this quote a week or so back.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

We're not governed via YouGov and Survation polls just yet. Only real votes in real elections and referendums.

Make up your mind!

Boomslang

[QUOTE=Shakethedisease;75991916

But I'm bored with this now. I'm sorry you didn't know the basics re polls. [/QUOTE]

Aye and you should know by now there is only one poll that matters and that is the one we all get to vote on not just those selected by the polling companies.

Arklight

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Please refer here :- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence#Post-referendum_polling


And the table that shows Scottish Independence polling since 2014. Almost all use respondent samples of around 1000 people. YouGov, Panelbase, Survation, Ipsos Mori. Latest poll being 18–20 June 2019 using 1024. Latest YouGov 24–26 Apr 2019 1029.

But I'm bored with this now. I'm sorry you didn't know the basics re polls. I only pointed it out to you since you seemed to actually be taking a poll literally in terms of only 500 people in Scotland wanting a second referendum.... rather than what polling does which is to choose 'representative' samples and extrapolate.

Shall we move on ? You're floundering a bit here and in the big scheme of things it doesn't really matter. The polling experts such as Sir John Curtice have analysed the last few months data and have come to the conclusion that Remain voters in Scotland are increasingly likely to vote for independence. https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/sir-john-curtice-brexit-deadlock-pushing-scottish-remain-voters-to-independence-1-4957405

He thinks it might be a tipping point for independence support. Now if you'd like to argue with Curtice's analysis feel free. But don't shoot the messenger ( me ). It's best you're prepared for what'll happen next and at the moment denial of all pertinent facts doesn't seem to be getting you very far. You're still stuck in 2010-land somewhere regarding the SNP.

I'm bracing myself but I think I'll cope whatever the outcome.

Shakethedisease

Boomslang wrote: »

Aye and you should know by now there is only one poll that matters and that is the one we all get to vote on not just those selected by the polling companies.

Polling companies and polls are there to do a job. Snapshots of public opinion etc etc. What they must never, ever do is replace or be used to justify what real people in real ballots vote for. Opinion polling has been used thus far by the Tories and other parties to deny the Scottish Parliament and thus Scottish voters wishes.

I see though that now that the opinion polls are turning Jo Swinson, Jeremy Hunt and others are now trying to deny the democratically elected Scottish Parliament wishes - on the strength that the SNP lost seats and run a minority Govt. This from the 'People's vote yaaay to a second referendum (- not you Scotland)' Lib Dems and from a Tory party enacting Brexit using the DUP. Could things get any dafter ? Panic, depesperation and hypocrites.

In other news

THERESA May’s de-facto deputy has refused to release the findings of a poll which his department commissioned about’ attitudes to independence and the Union. Cabinet Office minister David Lidington’ s department rejected a freedom of information (FOI) request from the SNP MP Tommy Sheppard to obtain the report commissioned from research firm Ipsos Mori.

https://www.thenational.scot/news/17744172.scottish-independence-lidington-blocks-release-of-key-poll/ Guessing it's not good news for the Union here.

And oooooh a Devolution 'Review'. Lucky us. I think we all know this review is the start of devolution being rolled back in order to accomodate Brexit requirements.

The prime minister is to announce a review of UK government departments to make sure they work in the best interests of devolution.
Theresa May will make the announcement during a visit to Scotland this week in one of her final visits as prime minister. It will ensure that all of the UK government's structures - including government departments - are co-operating to ensure devolution works.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-48848660

Hope Nicola's got the engine running...:cool: