The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

westernpromise

I love the idea of a Scottish currency. It should be called the Poond and there would be roughly 100 billion poonds to the £ by close of trading on its first day.

Shakethedisease

antrobus wrote: »

What are you on about?

Leaving the Union means giving up the annual subsidy of 8 billion odd. How is that not going to mean more austerity?

Because there are bad things ahead for Scotland whatever now. Independence or Brexit take your pick. It'll be up to the electorate which one they perceive as the worst hitting their pockets, jobs and standards of living.

Scotland is facing a “disastrous” post-Brexit economic slump with an £8 billion loss in GDP and tens of thousands of jobs disappearing over the next decade, senior economists have warned.

http://www.scotsman.com/business/80-000-job-losses-to-hit-scotland-post-brexit-warn-economists-1-4250294

GERS is a national statistic. It's not an economic plan. It's a statement of Scotland's fiscal position.You can't wish it away with verbiage.

It's a regional statistic of a Scotland within the UK and with most of the economics managed from Westminster. They've made a complete a**e of it haven't they ?
I've debated it lots of times here. I can't be bothered doing so with you again. Not when you're being so coy on how Brexit will affect the UK economy and thus Scotland's as part of the UK. *noted.

I have made no economic predictions. Nor have I any intention of doing so.

Yet are wagging fingers at me for not providing you with chapter and verse on a hypothetical independent Scotland after hypothetical negotiations with rUK, and an unknown status within or outwith the Single Market/EU ? *noted

I know. And I've told you that "a vote of some sort" isn't a vote for independence. In the real world you need a referendum.

We'll have a vote/referendum/election. It doesn't matter which as long as independence is in manifesto's and it's made clear to the electorate exactly what they are voting to enact. Imo the fact that permission has to be sought at all in a so called 'Union of equals' is perhaps a reason for independence in itself.

What "effect of Brexit on the Scottish economy"? You've just told us that you don't know what the effect will be.

Hilarious.

Oh I think we both know that leaving the Single Market isn't exactly going to be a boost to the economy. Scotland going along for the ride is essential though, because without Scotland the rUK is going to have an even crappier time of it over the next few decades than currently predicted for the UK as a whole.

antrobus

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Because there are bad things ahead for Scotland whatever now. Independence or Brexit take your pick. It'll be up to the electorate which one they perceive as the worst hitting their pockets, jobs and standards of living.

You are going to get Brexit whatever. Independence is a long way beyond Brexit.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

It's a regional statistic of a Scotland within the UK and with most of the economics managed from Westminster.

GERS is a National Statistics publication.

At least that's what the Scottish government says. Why don't you believe them?:)

https://beta.gov.scot/publications/government-expenditure-revenue-scotland-2016-17-9781788511612/pages/1/

Shakethedisease wrote: »

..
They've made a complete a**e of it haven't they ?

It's not the UK government's fault that Brent Crude isn't $100+ and that North Sea oil is contracting.:)

Shakethedisease wrote: »

..
I've debated it lots of times here. I can't be bothered doing so with you again.

No you haven't. Every time I mention in it, you say GERS is rubbish, and stick your fingers in youy ears and go la-la-lah I can't hear you.:rotfl:

Shakethedisease wrote: »

..
Not when you're being so coy on how Brexit will affect the UK economy and thus Scotland's as part of the UK. *noted.
Yet are wagging fingers at me for not providing you with chapter and verse on a hypothetical independent Scotland after hypothetical negotiations with rUK, and an unknown status within or outwith the Single Market/EU ? *notedWe'll have a vote/referendum/election. It doesn't matter which as long as independence is in manifesto's and it's made clear to the electorate exactly what they are voting to enact. Imo the fact that permission has to be sought at all in a so called 'Union of equals' is perhaps a reason for independence in itself.
Oh I think we both know that leaving the Single Market isn't exactly going to be a boost to the economy. Scotland going along for the ride is essential though, because without Scotland the rUK is going to have an even crappier time of it over the next few decades than currently predicted for the UK as a whole.

Coy on what? I have no idea how Brexit will turn out. I don't make economic predictions. On the other hand you have previously told us that (a) you don't know either or (b) that it's going to be a disaster. Now you're saying that it's (c) that it "isn't exactly going to be a boost to the economy". I'm just poking fun at your inability to make up your flippin mind.:)

P.S. I'm not expecting you to provide "chapter and verse" on anything. I'm just pointing out that you appear to have no ideas whatsoever about how this HIS is going to cope with its fiscal deficit. I mean, come on, that 8bn or so subsidy is going to go, you must have some idea where you're gonna make up the difference.

antrobus

One thing I forgot to mention.

Any UK-Scotland trade deal that was agreed during any independence negotiations would only be temporary. Because this independent Scotland is going to rejoin the EEA apparently. Once this Scotland is in the EEA it will be subject to whatever deal the EEA has already agreed with the UK. That's one of the basic rules of the EEA; individual countries can't do their own trade deals.

So all SNP zealots really need to pay attention to those Brexit negotiations. If it does prove to be a car-crash with no deal, then that's what any HIS is going to have to live with in the long term.

Sorry about that.

Shakethedisease

antrobus wrote: »

You are going to get Brexit whatever. Independence is a long way beyond Brexit.

GERS is a National Statistics publication.

At least that's what the Scottish government says. Why don't you believe them?:)

https://beta.gov.scot/publications/government-expenditure-revenue-scotland-2016-17-9781788511612/pages/1/

It's not the UK government's fault that Brent Crude isn't $100+ and that North Sea oil is contracting.:)

No you haven't. Every time I mention in it, you say GERS is rubbish, and stick your fingers in youy ears and go la-la-lah I can't hear you.:rotfl:

Coy on what? I have no idea how Brexit will turn out. I don't make economic predictions. On the other hand you have previously told us that (a) you don't know either or (b) that it's going to be a disaster. Now you're saying that it's (c) that it "isn't exactly going to be a boost to the economy". I'm just poking fun at your inability to make up your flippin mind.:)

P.S. I'm not expecting you to provide "chapter and verse" on anything. I'm just pointing out that you appear to have no ideas whatsoever about how this HIS is going to cope with its fiscal deficit. I mean, come on, that 8bn or so subsidy is going to go, you must have some idea where you're gonna make up the difference.

I don't think you know what it is you're debating in this thread anymore. You have 'no idea' how Brexit is going to affect the UK.
Yet when I point out what the totally upfront and centre and never hidden SNP/Scottish Govt reaction will be to a hard Brexit with/without a transition phase. You are on about GERS ? But you don't know what the UK economy will be like and how that will make GERS figures look. My goodness you're tying yourself in knots.

No Single Market access for Scotland means a referendum/vote. End of story and this has been the case since the 24 June 2016. Should Westminster try to remove Scotland's access to the Single Market, then you'll see for yourself just how much relevance bringing up GERS will have in the face of a Hard Brexit ( ie none ). I am sorry to be the consistent bearer of this news to forum members here like yourself who are still under the impression that Sept 2014 is relevant.. but here we are.

Pro indy parties won their mandate to call another referendum in Holyrood May 2016. That they haven't used it yet doesn't mean they wont. And they won't take any notice of what Westminster says either when the crunch comes. We all know they'll say No to another referendum anyway so minimal effort should go into worrying about that.

A soft Brexit however, can stop all of it. What's your thoughts on the chances of a softer Brexit thus stopping an independence vote as well as calming things down re NI and Gibraltar ? Who'd want to be a region on the wrong side of Spain just now eh !

Arklight

It won't take much now to pull the Tories' tottering government down.

The next government will be Labour, and probably Corbyn as PM. Will that so Indy for the time being?

Shaka_Zulu

Arklight wrote: »

Will that so Indy for the time being?

Please translate?

Shaka_Zulu

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Who'd want to be a region on the wrong side of Spain just now eh !

I don't think Gibraltar is a region of Spain quite yet!

antrobus

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I don't think you know what it is you're debating in this thread anymore. You have 'no idea' how Brexit is going to affect the UK.

That's right. I've tried very hard to persuade Stewie to give me the plans to his time machine, but he won't play ball, so I'm stuck here in the present, and am unable to predict the future. How have you managed to 'know' that Brexit will be a "disaster"?

Shakethedisease wrote: »

..
Yet when I point out what the totally upfront and centre and never hidden SNP/Scottish Govt reaction will be to a hard Brexit with/without a transition phase. You are on about GERS ?

GERS tells you that, (including an illustrative geographic share of North Sea revenue), Scotland ran a fiscal deficit of £13.3 billion (8.3 per cent of GDP) in 2016-17. You run that kind of deficit and pretty soon you run out of people willing to lend you the money. It's that simple. See Greece for a recent example.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

..
But you don't know what the UK economy will be like and how that will make GERS figures look.

That's right. I still don't have that time machine. On the other hand, if, as you say Brexit is going to be a "disaster" for Scotland'; job losses etc and so forth, isn't that going to make the fiscal deficit even worse?

Shakethedisease wrote: »

My goodness you're tying yourself in knots.

No, I'm busy tying you up in knots.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

..
No Single Market access for Scotland means a referendum/vote. End of story and this has been the case since the 24 June 2016. Should Westminster try to remove Scotland's access to the Single Market, then you'll see for yourself just how much relevance bringing up GERS will have in the face of a Hard Brexit ( ie none ).

If the UK leaves the single market, so does Scotland. Only states can join the EEA. Scotland is not a state.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

..
I am sorry to be the consistent bearer of this news to forum members here like yourself who are still under the impression that Sept 2014 is relevant.. but here we are.

Your opinion is not 'news'.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

..
Pro indy parties won their mandate to call another referendum in Holyrood May 2016. That they haven't used it yet doesn't mean they wont. And they won't take any notice of what Westminster says either when the crunch comes. We all know they'll say No to another referendum anyway so minimal effort should go into worrying about that.

Only the UK government can hold a legal referendum.

If that wasn't the case, why have you been waffling on about engineering a Holyrood election that is "some kind of vote"?

Shakethedisease wrote: »

..
A soft Brexit however, can stop all of it. What's your thoughts on the chances of a softer Brexit thus stopping an independence vote as well as calming things down re NI and Gibraltar ? Who'd want to be a region on the wrong side of Spain just now eh !

What is a "soft brexit:?

P.S. Who'd want to be a region on the wrong side of the UK eh! All the UK has to do is to stop sending any money to Holyrood. No need to go to the trouble of issuing arrest warrants for treason. :rotfl:

antrobus

Shaka_Zulu wrote: »

I don't think Gibraltar is a region of Spain quite yet!

Good point. I think it's still a crown dependency. It was the last time I looked, at any rate.