The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Arklight

An indy Scotland safe in the EU, with full access to all the trade agreements the Little Englanders denied themselves. What more of a stinging rebuke to small minded Brexitwittedness could Proud Scots deliver to their Southern neighbour?

antrobus

Arklight wrote: »

An indy Scotland safe in the EU, with full access to all the trade agreements the Little Englanders denied themselves. What more of a stinging rebuke to small minded Brexitwittedness could Proud Scots deliver to their Southern neighbour?

An Indy Scotland would have to apply to join the EU.

It would be required to comply with the Stability and Growth Pact, and get its fiscal deficit down to 3% of GDP. Last time I looked Scotland's fiscal deficit was 10% or so of GDP. Those "proud Scots" that you speak of will be more likely to be groaning under the burden of the required austerity. Those "Little Englanders" will sympathise with their plight.

Arklight

The idea that the EU would force Scotland to wait in line after or during Brexit is pure fantasy. Scotland's main risk is holding off on Indy too long while the Tory Brexitwits, mostly based in the South East of England drag them into a ruinous arrangement they didn't vote for and don't want.


The Tories are about to start selling off the NHS to American "health care" providers and tearing up trade deals we have held for decades. It's imperative Scotland exits this now before they are forced to commit to legislation that would preclude EU membership.

Shakethedisease

Tromking wrote: »

The UK single market comes into being the moment Scotland votes to put itself outwith the UK. As usual you gloss over the massive ramifications for Scotland if that choice is made. If Ireland as an independent nation are presently concerned about the loss of its historical access to the UK internal market, then we can only imagine the widespread panic that will ensue in Scotland if the electorate up there decide to press the nuclear button and vote for independence.
Luckily for you and the future of your fellow Scots, the Scottish electorate are not that stupid.

They aren't stupid to vote and go along with Brexit you mean. The Single Market is a group of independent countries in one trade market. There is no UK Single Market, nor will there be even when Scotland leaves. You'll just have a much smaller and much reduced internal market as well as dealing with leaving the Single Market.

Good luck with that. Scotland can have access to both. Let's face it, you'll be desperate and gagging for whatever trade deals you can get by then.

Shakethedisease

antrobus wrote: »

What?

It is the UK that will leave the single market. Scotland is currently part of the UK.

So you keep saying.You're the one that said that "Not so long ago all it would've taken is a majority of Scottish MP's to be from the SNP in order to gain independence."

I was simply pointing out that a majority of Scottish MPs were from the SNP in 2015 and yet there was no independence.

Your capacity to post statements that are both stupid and wrong and then pretend you haven't is quite amazing.:)That's good to know.:)
Oh good grief! What the SNP will 'countenance' is irrelevant. If the UK leaves the single market, Scotland will too, because it is part of the UK.
What "legal general election"? The next Holyrood election isn't until 2021. What exactly is supposed to happen in "spring 2019"?

Stop waffling and answer the question.

Err, it's the UK that's holding Scotland's hand to the tune of some 8 billion a year.

So how is this "control" going to tackle the issue of the loss of the annual subsidy and the unsustainable fiscal deficit?


Yes, there is a UK Single Market. Simply calling it an 'internal market' doesn't change anything. In any case, if Scotland leaves the UK it will cease to be part of this 'internal market' will it not?

Any HIS will have to apply to join EFTA. Membership isn't instantaneous. What is this HIS going to do in the meantime before this FTA is agreed?

And Scotland will not still be in the single market. If the UK leaves the single market so will Scotland. An independent Scotland could, if it so wished subsequently join the European 'single market'. But it has to be independent to do so. Only states can join the EEA because that's what the treaty says.

You should already know this. I have already explained it to you, complete with links to the text of the treaty.

You're becoming unreadable.

There is no reason why Scotland won't be in the Single Market. The UK is heading for EEA/EFTA as a transition phase. You do not have the time for anything else now unless you're crashing out. Time is too short. Davies only has a few short months left to secure a good deal.

Perhaps the most remarkable element of the government’s unendurably shambolic latest fortnight is that its gravest potential disaster has barely even been acknowledged.

It is becoming increasingly likely that the Brexit talks will not advance to the next stage in December. This makes an immediate political crisis, and economic shock, a real prospect. It also renders a deal before 2019 all but impossible. The next windows for a collective EU nod are now in December and, after that, March 2018. The European parliament must have a draft on which to vote by October 2018.

To be clear: a 10-month negotiating window was stretching credulity, especially given the lack of progress over the past five. But seven months to negotiate the most complex deal in modern European history, even in outline, defies the limits of human capacity. That deal cannot and will not be done.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/08/brexit-december-pie-sky-eu-no-deal-50-percent-britain-europe#comments

I'll also spell this out for you once and for all shall I ? Politically, May won't allow a second referendum.. However The SNP/Greens also can't afford to and won't hang about waiting on permission that will never come. They view Single Market membership as too important to Scotland's future.

So there will be a vote. And if it's not to be a referendum, it'll be an election. Sturgeon will collapse the Scottish Govt and call one. If there is a transition/implementation phase that involves the UK and EEA/EFTA then Scotland will follow. But once moves are afoot for the UK to leave... that's when there will be a vote.

Should the UK crash out, then the vote will be much sooner.

Anyone using the 2014 fiscal deficit stuff to argue that Scotland should remain in the UK due to all the economic uncertainty it would cause will be patted on the head and asked to move along.

Tromking

Shakethedisease wrote: »

They aren't stupid to vote and go along with Brexit you mean. The Single Market is a group of independent countries in one trade market. There is no UK Single Market, nor will there be even when Scotland leaves. You'll just have a much smaller and much reduced internal market as well as dealing with leaving the Single Market.

Good luck with that. Scotland can have access to both. Let's face it, you'll be desperate and gagging for whatever trade deals you can get by then.

Oh Dear.
Your desperation to fit the independence argument into the current Brexit scenario is almost pathological. Sturgeon had her fingers burned trying to do the same thing you’ll recall.
You try and imagine a set of circumstances where Scotland holds all the cards and the rUK is hopelessly sidelined simply to make yourself feel better. All the evidence so far is saying that Scots are finding comfort in the Union not gagging to get out as you would contend.
Feel free to keep the pipe dream alive in your own imagination though.

antrobus

Shakethedisease wrote: »

You're becoming unreadable.

Your notice of surrender is duly accepted.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

There is no reason why Scotland won't be in the Single Market.

Yes there is. I'll have another go at explaining it to you. Let's try the EFTA FAQs.

Is it possible to become a party to the EEA Agreement without being a member of the EU or EFTA?

Article 126 of the Agreement on the EEA makes it clear that the EEA Agreement only applies to the territories of the EU, in addition to Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway. Under the present wording of the EEA Agreement, it is therefore impossible to be a party to the EEA Agreement without being a member of either the EU or EFTA.

According to Article 128 of the EEA Agreement, “any European State becoming a member of the Community shall, and the Swiss Confederation or any European State becoming a member of EFTA may, apply to become a party to this Agreement. It shall address its application to the EEA Council.”

http://www.efta.int/faq

Do you understand what is meant by the statement "it is therefore impossible to be a party to the EEA Agreement without being a member of either the EU or EFTA" ?

Do you understand that only states can become a member of either EFTA or the EU, and that Scotland is not a state until it and if it becomes independent?

Shakethedisease wrote: »

...
The UK is heading for EEA/EFTA as a transition phase. You do not have the time for anything else now unless you're crashing out. Time is too short. Davies only has a few short months left to secure a good deal.

Article 50 has been triggered. The UK will leave the EU on 29 March 2019. The terms on which the UK will leave have yet to be agreed.

I don't think that the UK will be making an application to join EFTA. I suppose we'll just have to wait and see who is right on that one.:)

Shakethedisease wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/08/brexit-december-pie-sky-eu-no-deal-50-percent-britain-europe#comments

That's a link to the comments on a Guardian opinion piece. Which comment are we supposed to read? Do you not understand that comments are continuously updated?

A fake source is just as bad as a fake quote.:rotfl:

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I'll also spell this out for you once and for all shall I ? Politically, May won't allow a second referendum.. However The SNP/Greens also can't afford to and won't hang about waiting on permission that will never come. They view Single Market membership as too important to Scotland's future.

So there will be a vote. And if it's not to be a referendum, it'll be an election. Sturgeon will collapse the Scottish Govt and call one. If there is a transition/implementation phase that involves the UK and EEA/EFTA then Scotland will follow. But once moves are afoot for the UK to leave... that's when there will be a vote.

I's about bl00dy time. i've asked you at least twice about what vote was going to take place in 'spring 2019'. Persistence pays I suppose.

Finally we discover that "Sturgeon will collapse the Scottish Govt and call one."

It is, I believe, possible for Sturgeon to resign, and for the SNP to decline to appoint an alternative, and to vote down any attempt by the minority parties to appoint one of their own, thereby leaving Scotland without a government.

It seems that Holyrood has 28 days to make up its mind.

s46 Scotland Act 1998
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/46

But it is some chap named Ken Macintosh who has the right to propose an 'extraordinary general election' to HRH, and the use of the word "may" in s3(3) might suggest that is not guaranteed that Brenda will say yes.

s46 Scotland Act 1998
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/3

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Should the UK crash out, then the vote will be much sooner.

The UK will leave the EU on 29 March 2019. That is 'spring 2019'. How much sooner can you get?

Shakethedisease wrote: »

...
Anyone using the 2014 fiscal deficit stuff to argue that Scotland should remain in the UK due to all the economic uncertainty it would cause will be patted on the head and asked to move along.

How about 2016/17? I was released on August 23, 2017.

Including an illustrative geographic share of North Sea revenue, was a deficit of £13.3 billion (8.3 per cent of GDP). For the UK, was a deficit of £46.2 billion (2.4 per cent of GDP).

http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2017/08/7201

8.3% of GDP is still unsustainable. I seem to recall seeing OBR forecasts that the deficit is projected to decline to 6% in 2020/21. Which is a move in the right direction I suppose. (Although more to do with the plans of the UK government than anything else.)

It still leaves any HIS with a few billions worth of austerity to implement. Any ideas as to what the SNP will be proposing?

In any event, i would have thought the prospect of Scotland leaving the UK would create even more economic uncertainty.

antrobus

Tromking wrote: »

Oh Dear.
Your desperation to fit the independence argument into the current Brexit scenario is almost pathological. ..

You might very well think that; I couldn't possibly comment.:)

Shakethedisease

Tromking wrote: »

Oh Dear.
Your desperation to fit the independence argument into the current Brexit scenario is almost pathological. Sturgeon had her fingers burned trying to do the same thing you’ll recall.
You try and imagine a set of circumstances where Scotland holds all the cards and the rUK is hopelessly sidelined simply to make yourself feel better. All the evidence so far is saying that Scots are finding comfort in the Union not gagging to get out as you would contend.
Feel free to keep the pipe dream alive in your own imagination though.

You can't separate the two and to try and pretend that the next Scottish independence vote has nothing to do with Brexit, Scotland not voting for it and the consequences of a Leave vote ? Nonsense. That's just not facing inconvenient facts.

Scotland doesn't hold all the cards. But what it does have is an exit door being held open by the SNP/Greens.. a door the Scottish electorate in 2016 which gave them a mandate for. At some point we'll be given a choice to make.

Shakethedisease

antrobus wrote: »

Do you understand what is meant by the statement "it is therefore impossible to be a party to the EEA Agreement without being a member of either the EU or EFTA" ?

Do you understand that only states can become a member of either EFTA or the EU, and that Scotland is not a state until it and if it becomes independent?

Yes.

Article 50 has been triggered. The UK will leave the EU on 29 March 2019. The terms on which the UK will leave have yet to be agreed.
I don't think that the UK will be making an application to join EFTA. I suppose we'll just have to wait and see who is right on that one.:)

It's that or nothing. If it's nothing Scotland goes to the ballot box, and very quickly.

That's a link to the comments on a Guardian opinion piece. Which comment are we supposed to read? Do you not understand that comments are continuously updated?

A fake source is just as bad as a fake quote.:rotfl:

I quoted the relevant piece in my post. Didn't you read it ? Davies doesn't have time to make a deal. It was the article I was linking to, not the comments. I have no idea how I managed that. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/08/brexit-december-pie-sky-eu-no-deal-50-percent-britain-europe

Finally we discover that "Sturgeon will collapse the Scottish Govt and call one."It is, I believe, possible for Sturgeon to resign, and for the SNP to decline to appoint an alternative, and to vote down any attempt by the minority parties to appoint one of their own, thereby leaving Scotland without a government.

It seems that Holyrood has 28 days to make up its mind.. bBut it is some chap named Ken Macintosh who has the right to propose an 'extraordinary general election' to HRH, and the use of the word "may" in s3(3) might suggest that is not guaranteed that Brenda will say yes.

s46 Scotland Act 1998
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/3

No Scottish Government means an election if the other parties can't form a government just like in Westminster. What's the alternative ? So a perfectly legal election and very quickly organised election ( Holyrood elections are completely devolved ) will take place. The SNP and Greens will both stand on an independence ticket and keeping Single Market access. Ken McIntosh can only decide what is legal or not. A Scottish general election most certainly is, we've had lots of them since devolution.

If Brexit has gone badly wrong by then. It'll be an 'opportune' moment.

The UK will leave the EU on 29 March 2019. That is 'spring 2019'. How much sooner can you get? I was released on August 23, 2017.

Where from ?

Including an illustrative geographic share of North Sea revenue, was a deficit of £13.3 billion (8.3 per cent of GDP). For the UK, was a deficit of £46.2 billion (2.4 per cent of GDP).

http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2017/08/7201

8.3% of GDP is still unsustainable. I seem to recall seeing OBR forecasts that the deficit is projected to decline to 6% in 2020/21. Which is a move in the right direction I suppose. (Although more to do with the plans of the UK government than anything else.)

It still leaves any HIS with a few billions worth of austerity to implement. Any ideas as to what the SNP will be proposing?

In any event, i would have thought the prospect of Scotland leaving the UK would create even more economic uncertainty.

Not this old flannel again about oil and deficits. And the OBR after recent forecasts ? :rotfl: