The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Shakethedisease

antrobus wrote: »

Anytime between now and the year 2050.

P.S. I am not painting a referendum as anything. It's either legal or it isn't.
Brexit hasn't happened yet. But I understand you want it to be a disaster,
My guess would be that the unionist parties would campaign for a boycott of any illegal referendum, and that the UK government would make it clear that it would take no notice in advance.

That's why it'll be a Scottish General Election vote most likely. Perfectly legal.

An 80% yes vote on a 30% turnout isn't going to change anything.

Normal turnout. General election. No boycotts. SNP/Greens standing on starting independence negotations asap. If none of the other parties stand they're handing complete and utter control of Holyrood and every Scottish policy going including independence to the SNP/Greens for 5 years.

Yes, I understand that the SNP want to engineer some kind of reason to hold a referendum.

But none of that changes the economics of an independent Scotland. A fiscal deficit of almost 10% of GDP is unsustainable.

Unless Brent Crude gets back up to $100, this HIS would need to impose austerity plus to balance the books. The SNP is strangely silent on this topic.

Get back to us when you realise it's Nov 2017 after a Brexit vote and everything that goes with that, and not August 2014.

Tromking

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Get back to us when you realise it's Nov 2017 after a Brexit vote and everything that goes with that, and not August 2014.

......and of course a possible but probably unlikely disastrous Brexit where any negative effects for Scots will be underwritten by 50 million other Brits, makes Scotland voting for instant penury via independence inevitable I suppose?
Only in the head of rabid nationalist is this possible.

antrobus

Shakethedisease wrote: »

That's why it'll be a Scottish General Election vote most likely. Perfectly legal....

Hang on a minute, so all this stuff you have previously posted about the inevitability of 'indyref2' was total blather?:)

Wasn't it supposed to held in March 2017?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum

Shakethedisease wrote: »

...
Normal turnout. General election. No boycotts. SNP/Greens standing on starting independence negotations asap. If none of the other parties stand they're handing complete and utter control of Holyrood and every Scottish policy going including independence to the SNP/Greens for 5 years.

Well, I was talking about an illegal 'referendum'. As noted above, you have now shifted your position. Again.:)

A Scottish Parliament election result is not a referendum. Even if the SNP were able to reproduce the 2016 result and get 50% plus of the vote on the basis of a manifesto commitment of "on starting independence negotiations asap" that means nothing in terms of the law.

The UK government is very unlikely to agree to enter into 'independence negotiations' as a result. The best that could be achieved is that the UK government might concede that there was a case for another referendum. Or not. Depends on who's in charge. There's not a lot you can do, if they say no.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

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Get back to us when you realise it's Nov 2017 after a Brexit vote and everything that goes with that, and not August 2014.

Please get back to us on the 6 May 2021 when you realise that is the date of the next Scottish Parliament election. Which puts the date of any agreed referendum sometime in 2023, I'd guess.

A lot can happen in nine years. The future may not turn out the way you hope,. Even if Scottish whisky exports to the EU do tank post-Brexit, maybe the Chinese will have made up the difference by 2023. Or maybe the North Koreans will have nuked Glasgow. Who knows?:)

P.S. It's not June 2017 either. 36.9% of the popular vote and the loss of 21 seats doesn't look like a 'mandate'.

antrobus

Tromking wrote: »

......and of course a possible but probably unlikely disastrous Brexit where any negative effects for Scots will be underwritten by 50 million other Brits, makes Scotland voting for instant penury via independence inevitable I suppose?
Only in the head of rabid nationalist is this possible.

Well there are clearly nationalists, rabid or otherwise, who's emotional commitment to independence is such that they will pay any price.

But if leaving the European single market (£12 billion of exports) is going to be such a 'disaster' for Scotland , how is leaving the UK single market (£50 billion of exports) not going to be an economic cataclysm of epic proportions?

Add the loss of the subsidy, the costs of independence- central banks don't come cheap ya, know - you are talking about a decade of Greek type austerity. Of course maybe Brent Crude will be $150 and everything will be hunky dory for a while.

The future is uncertain and the end is always near.:)

Shakethedisease

antrobus wrote: »

Hang on a minute, so all this stuff you have previously posted about the inevitability of 'indyref2' was total blather?:)Wasn't it supposed to held in March 2017?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum

No.

Well, I was talking about an illegal 'referendum'. As noted above, you have now shifted your position. Again.

Also no, I haven't. I usually refer to the next indy vote as a 'vote' not a referendum and have done for quite some time now here. There's a reason for that, and it's that a Section 30 won't be granted under May, but the current Scottish Govt will risk everything they've got in order to keep Scotland in the Single Market. They truly believe leaving it will be catastrophic, Scotland didn't vote for it, and should it happen.. if a vote is lost, then Scottish Labour or the Tories should be left to deal with the fallout. All of it.

While you have a clear view and understanding of what you think the UK Govt will do. I also have one from another perspective. The SNP are keeping their heads down for now. But as soon as something 'big' happens, and if it affects Scotland negatively they'll be out of the starting blocks before anyone can react. They'll call 'a vote'.. if its a Yes vote then they'll deal with the consequences and attempt negotiations with the UK Govt. If it's a No vote.. they'll leave Scottish Labour and the Conservatives to it.
In short the SNP don't feel they have anything to lose. Not even losing another vote if it means leaving the Single Market.

A Scottish Parliament election result is not a referendum. Even if the SNP were able to reproduce the 2016 result and get 50% plus of the vote on the basis of a manifesto commitment of "on starting independence negotiations asap" that means nothing in terms of the law.

Not so long ago all it would've taken is a majority of Scottish MP's to be from the SNP in order to gain independence.

You keep talking like the SNP will get this mythical 50% of the vote ( and you're forgetting the Greens btw ) as if no one will actually vote for them or their manifesto. Forget the SNP and think about the 'the will of the people' after all that's what counts isn't it.

The UK government is very unlikely to agree to enter into 'independence negotiations' as a result. The best that could be achieved is that the UK government might concede that there was a case for another referendum. Or not. Depends on who's in charge. There's not a lot you can do, if they say no.

They will if someone like Corbyn in in charge. A Brexiteer who truly believes in democracy and ordinary people having their say via the ballot box. Or indeed any Tory leader who regards losing Scotland as a price worth paying to leave the EU/Single Market. May obviously doesn't. But there are some who aren't really bothered, or with NI either come to that.

Please get back to us on the 6 May 2021 when you realise that is the date of the next Scottish Parliament election. Which puts the date of any agreed referendum sometime in 2023, I'd guess

Brexit goes t**s up in the next few months. There will be a vote in Spring 2019.

A lot can happen in nine years. The future may not turn out the way you hope,. Even if Scottish whisky exports to the EU do tank post-Brexit, maybe the Chinese will have made up the difference by 2023. Or maybe the North Koreans will have nuked Glasgow. Who knows?:)

Nothing is written in stone of course I agree. But this whole Brexit thing is starting to look like a really bad idea.

P.S. It's not June 2017 either. 36.9% of the popular vote and the loss of 21 seats doesn't look like a 'mandate'.

Westminster election. 56 MP's or 6 MP's makes no difference whatsoever. We learnt that lesson in only 2 years. Any vote will, as it was in 2011 when the SNP had just 6 MP's, be instigated via a mandate from Holyrood.

antrobus

Shakethedisease wrote: »

No.

Well I say 'yes'.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Also no,

Fibber.:)

Shakethedisease wrote: »

...
but the current Scottish Govt will risk everything they've got in order to keep Scotland in the Single Market.

They can't. Scotland will leave the Single Market in March 2019. Unless something different comes out of the Brexit negotiations.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

...
Not so long ago all it would've taken is a majority of Scottish MP's to be from the SNP in order to gain independence.

In 2015 the SNP had 56 Scottish MPs. Was that not a majority? Was that not so long ago?

Shakethedisease wrote: »

...
You keep talking like the SNP will get this mythical 50% of the vote ( and you're forgetting the Greens btw ) as if no one will actually vote for them or their manifesto.

There is nothing mythical about it. To win a referendum
you need 50%+ of the vote.

P.S. the Scottish Greens got 0.2% of the vote in the recent GE, so it seems it is the Scots who have forgetten about them.:)

Shakethedisease wrote: »

...

They will if someone like Corbyn in in charge. A Brexiteer who truly believes in democracy and ordinary people having their say via the ballot box. Or indeed any Tory leader who regards losing Scotland as a price worth paying to leave the EU/Single Market. May obviously doesn't. But there are some who aren't really bothered, or with NI either come to that. Brexit goes t**s up in the next few months.

You still don't get it do you? Scotland is part of the UK. If the UK leaves the EU/Single Market it takes Scotland with it.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

...
There will be a vote in Spring 2019.

What vote?

Shakethedisease wrote: »

.
Nothing is written in stone of course I agree. But this whole Brexit thing is starting to look like a really bad idea.

I'd say that this whole independence thing looks like an even worse idea.:)

As I noted above, if leaving the European single market (£12 billion of exports) is going to be such a 'disaster' for Scotland , how is leaving the UK single market (£50 billion of exports) not going to be an economic cataclysm of epic proportions?

How is this HIS going to make up for the loss of the multi-billion pound subsidy that Scotland currently receives? How much is it going to cost to set up a central bank and currency?

Shakethedisease

antrobus wrote: »

Well I say 'yes'.
Fibber.:)

They can't. Scotland will leave the Single Market in March 2019. Unless something different comes out of the Brexit negotiations.

You still don't get it do you? Scotland is part of the UK. If the UK leaves the EU/Single Market it takes Scotland with it.

The UK will most likely find itself applying for EEA/EFTA in the next wee while in order to have any sort of transitional/implementation phase. Time is running out for bespoke 'deals'. Scotland will remain there should the rUK leave the Single Market after this transition phase. All of which is now looking extremely doubtful I admit as this current govt falls apart at the seams.

But reversing Brexit or staying in the Single Market will put off indy for a while. Is the only thing that will.

In 2015 the SNP had 56 Scottish MPs. Was that not a majority? Was that not so long ago?

In 2014 during the last referendum they had 6 MP's. It doesn't matter how many MP's the SNP have really. It's MSP's at Holyrood ( where there was an indy majority in 2011, and now ) which count. 6, 56 or 35 MP is of no relevance to what gets done at Holyrood.

There is nothing mythical about it. To win a referendum
you need 50%+ of the vote.

How many times do I need to reiterate that while May is around there won't be a second referendum as things stand ? Yet the SNP/Greens won't countenance Scotland being taken out of the Single Market along with the rUK.

There will be a vote, and if it's not a legal referendum because it will never be the time, then it'll be a legal general election explicitly played out as a de-facto-referendum.

I'd say that this whole independence thing looks like an even worse idea.:)

As I noted above, if leaving the European single market (£12 billion of exports) is going to be such a 'disaster' for Scotland , how is leaving the UK single market (£50 billion of exports) not going to be an economic cataclysm of epic proportions?

How is this HIS going to make up for the loss of the multi-billion pound subsidy that Scotland currently receives? How much is it going to cost to set up a central bank and currency?

The UK is going under unless this govt or a new one reverses a few things. Scotland won't be holding your hand for the slide if things are as bad as you paint. Why go along with something ( Brexit ) we didn't vote for that will only make bad economic problems 100 times worse. At least with independence there's a large degree of control over things as they play out. Not just 59 Scottish MP's amounting to either lobby fodder or ignored.

There is NO UK Single Market it doesn't exist. We have an internal market just like every other country in the world. If Scotland is in EFTA then a FTA can be done with rUK and trade will continue with the EU as still in Single Market. Best of both worlds. Shame rUK are stuffed though..

Tromking

Shakethedisease wrote: »

There is NO UK Single Market it doesn't exist. We have an internal market just like every other country in the world. If Scotland is in EFTA then a FTA can be done with rUK and trade will continue with the EU as still in Single Market. Best of both worlds. Shame rUK are stuffed though..

The UK single market comes into being the moment Scotland votes to put itself outwith the UK. As usual you gloss over the massive ramifications for Scotland if that choice is made. If Ireland as an independent nation are presently concerned about the loss of its historical access to the UK internal market, then we can only imagine the widespread panic that will ensue in Scotland if the electorate up there decide to press the nuclear button and vote for independence.
Luckily for you and the future of your fellow Scots, the Scottish electorate are not that stupid.

antrobus

Shakethedisease wrote: »

The UK will most likely find itself applying for EEA/EFTA in the next wee while in order to have any sort of transitional/implementation phase. ...

What?

Shakethedisease wrote: »

...
Time is running out for bespoke 'deals'. Scotland will remain there should the rUK leave the Single Market after this transition phase. All of which is now looking extremely doubtful I admit as this current govt falls apart at the seams. ...

It is the UK that will leave the single market. Scotland is currently part of the UK.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

...
But reversing Brexit or staying in the Single Market will put off indy for a while. Is the only thing that will.

So you keep saying.:)

Shakethedisease wrote: »

...
In 2014 during the last referendum they had 6 MP's. It doesn't matter how many MP's the SNP have really. It's MSP's at Holyrood ( where there was an indy majority in 2011, and now ) which count. 6, 56 or 35 MP is of no relevance to what gets done at Holyrood.

You're the one that said that "Not so long ago all it would've taken is a majority of Scottish MP's to be from the SNP in order to gain independence."

I was simply pointing out that a majority of Scottish MPs were from the SNP in 2015 and yet there was no independence.

Your capacity to post statements that are both stupid and wrong and then pretend you haven't is quite amazing.:)

Shakethedisease wrote: »

...
How many times do I need to reiterate that while May is around there won't be a second referendum as things stand ?

That's good to know.:)

Shakethedisease wrote: »

... Yet the SNP/Greens won't countenance Scotland being taken out of the Single Market along with the rUK.

Oh good grief! What the SNP will 'countenance' is irrelevant. If the UK leaves the single market, Scotland will too, because it is part of the UK.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

...

There will be a vote, and if it's not a legal referendum because it will never be the time, then it'll be a legal general election explicitly played out as a de-facto-referendum.

What "legal general election"? The next Holyrood election isn't until 2021. What exactly is supposed to happen in "spring 2019"?

Stop waffling and answer the question.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

...
The UK is going under unless this govt or a new one reverses a few things. Scotland won't be holding your hand for the slide if things are as bad as you paint. Why go along with something ( Brexit ) we didn't vote for that will only make bad economic problems 100 times worse. ..

Err, it's the UK that's holding Scotland's hand to the tune of some 8 billion a year.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

...
At least with independence there's a large degree of control over things as they play out. Not just 59 Scottish MP's amounting to either lobby fodder or ignored..

So how is this "control" going to tackle the issue of the loss of the annual subsidy and the unsustainable fiscal deficit?

Shakethedisease wrote: »

..There is NO UK Single Market it doesn't exist. We have an internal market just like every other country in the world. If Scotland is in EFTA then a FTA can be done with rUK and trade will continue with the EU as still in Single Market. Best of both worlds. Shame rUK are stuffed though..

.

Yes, there is a UK Single Market. Simply calling it an 'internal market' doesn't change anything. In any case, if Scotland leaves the UK it will cease to be part of this 'internal market' will it not?

Any HIS will have to apply to join EFTA. Membership isn't instantaneous. What is this HIS going to do in the meantime before this FTA is agreed?

And Scotland will not still be in the single market. If the UK leaves the single market so will Scotland. An independent Scotland could, if it so wished subsequently join the European 'single market'. But it has to be independent to do so. Only states can join the EEA because that's what the treaty says.

You should already know this. I have already explained it to you, complete with links to the text of the treaty.

antrobus

Tromking wrote: »

... If Ireland as an independent nation are presently concerned about the loss of its historical access to the UK internal market, then we can only imagine the widespread panic that will ensue in Scotland if the electorate up there decide to press the nuclear button and vote for independence.
...

As I have already noted. More than once.:)