The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Shakethedisease

cogito wrote: »

Of course it can set up its own central bank. It would be under an obligation to do so as part of its accession process to the EU. It would have to borrow money but who is going to lend to a country without assurance that it will get it back and what rate of interest would it have to pay? Scotland would first have to show that it can run a manageable budget deficit in the region of 3% to comply with EU rules but it currently has a deficit of around three times that. How would it reduce its deficit without massive austerity? And why would the EU step in as lender of last resort (I assume that's what you meant to write) to a non member state? That's pretty much the job of the IMF anyway.

Scotland won't be going back into the EU anytime soon.

It'll be EFTA. More due to continuing trade with both EU and rUK than anything else However, EFTA will also sway a large swathe of 2014 Yes/2016 Leave voters and thirdly, the Spain/Catalonia situation has had many previous pro-EU advocates re-assessing as far as I can see on social media.
So no need to worry about accession processes just yet. In fact the EU question is one which will probably be put to the Scottish electorate at some point a few years after independence.

Don't feel obliged to answer. These questions have been put to shakey many times on this thread and she has ducked answering every time.

I have answered them. You just don't like or accept the answers. So once again for the benefit of folks like yourself who read, but don't take anything in.. EFTA. No need for concerns over Scotland/rUK trade and fictional made up 'UK Single Markets'. Or EU accession. Scotland will be following the Norway model and only the whole UK following the same will stop another Scottish vote on independence.

As for Central Banks etc the policies and papers were there last time round too. Independence first though and one thing at a time. Things are different now.

The draft papers, which were written by civil servants and not approved by ministers, set out the structures necessary for an independent Scotland’s monetary policy, and the transition from being part of the UK to going it alone.

At the centre of the transition plan was the role of the Scottish Monetary Institute (SMI), which was to be established immediately after independence, and would “help coordinate and articulate technical input of behalf of Scotland into the negotiation process.” If the outcome of negotiations led to the creation of a “Scottish Central Bank”, the paper says, the SMI could fulfil this role as either a non-departmental body or company, with shares held by the Scottish Treasury.

http://www.thenational.scot/news/15224516.Revealed__The_secret_plans_for_the_currency_and_Scottish_Central_Bank_after_a_Yes_vote_in_2014/

antrobus

cogito wrote: »

Of course it can set up its own central bank. It would be under an obligation to do so as part of its accession process to the EU. ..

Any independent Scotland needs a central bank whatever. And a currency. For one thing, there are a number of banks based in Scotland. In the absence of a central bank they will relocate pdq.:)

cogito wrote: »

...
It would have to borrow money but who is going to lend to a country without assurance that it will get it back and what rate of interest would it have to pay? Scotland would first have to show that it can run a manageable budget deficit in the region of 3% to comply with EU rules but it currently has a deficit of around three times that. How would it reduce its deficit without massive austerity? And why would the EU step in as lender of last resort (I assume that's what you meant to write) to a non member state? That's pretty much the job of the IMF anyway.... ..

Austerity would be inevitable. The loss of the annual subsidy would make it so.

antrobus

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Scotland won't be going back into the EU anytime soon.

It'll be EFTA. More due to continuing trade with both EU and rUK ..

Continuing trade with the UK has nothing to do with EFTA. That would depend on the outcome of these hypothetical independence negotiations.

Once independent, this Scotland can apply to join EFTA. EFTA may say yes, or they may so no. Membership of EFTA gets free trade |(of some kind) with Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. It does not get continuing trade with the EU. For that you need to join the EEA. Which would involve negotiations with the remaining 27 EU members.

So there would be no "continuing trade". There would be a number of years trading on WTO terms.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

...As for Central Banks etc the policies and papers were there last time round too. Independence first though and one thing at a time. ...

The plans (such as they were) were secret, so they weren't "there".

Scotland needs a central bank, and a currency to become independent. So it's not "Independence first".:)

Shakethedisease

antrobus wrote: »

Any independent Scotland needs a central bank whatever. And a currency. For one thing, there are a number of banks based in Scotland. In the absence of a central bank they will relocate pdq.:)

Austerity would be inevitable. The loss of the annual subsidy would make it so.

Austerity is inevitable anyway with Brexit round the corner ( Bad deal or No deal ). Everything else above is policy. Not independence which is the choice and means to shape policy.

There's been lots of work done and published from various sources ( Richard Murphy, Common Space ) .. but nothing from the SNP so far. Imo they are right to be very wary of any future independence paper being far too closely associated with party policy like last time round. Now is definitely NOT the time for SNP pronouncements on Central Banks and currency. <-- these will only end up being debated and ripped to bits 24/7 in the media for months and providing a distraction from Brexit. This would never do.

Shakethedisease

antrobus wrote: »

Continuing trade with the UK has nothing to do with EFTA. That would depend on the outcome of these hypothetical independence negotiations.

Once independent, this Scotland can apply to join EFTA. EFTA may say yes, or they may so no. Membership of EFTA gets free trade |(of some kind) with Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. It does not get continuing trade with the EU. For that you need to join the EEA. Which would involve negotiations with the remaining 27 EU members.

So there would be no "continuing trade". There would be a number of years trading on WTO terms.


The plans (such as they were) were secret, so they weren't "there".

Scotland needs a central bank, and a currency to become independent. So it's not "Independence first".:)

It will be an independence VOTE first if you prefer to see it that way. If the UK is in a transitional phase leaving the EU and Single Market then it's a fair bet it will be a Norway style one.

If there is no transitional phase ( no deal ) Scotland will vote between Sept 2018 and Mar 2019. If it's a vote for independence the Scottish Govt will use the paper it presented to May in December 2016 as the basis of negotiations for remaining in the Single Market. The Scottish Govt in seeking compromise with May last year, have already done 99% of the leg work involved already. As for rUK you'll be looking for trade deals I assume ?

Scotland’s Place in Europe

Tuesday, December 20, 2016
It then sets out the Scottish Government’s strategy for ensuring Scotland can remain a member of the European Single Market even if the UK Government chooses a different outcome,

http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2016/12/9234

Most folks here were sneering about how none of the above could happen while Scotland is part of the UK. Well, if Scotland isn't a part of the UK....

As a side note while Nicola Sturgeon is keeping her powder well dry for now, it seems both Salmond and Sheppard have been tasked with the more 'radical' bell weather pronouncements. Good cop, bad cop. Sturgeon will of course play it all down, while preparing for just the scenarios they are detailing. Sheppard :-

“Or the other option is the United Kingdom Government will ignore the representations of Scotland and it will overrule them and proceed regardless anyway.
“In those latter circumstances, I tell you here today, the mandate from 2016 is still there and it will be executed, because we will give the people of Scotland the right to decide whether they want to have the isolation economic chaos that Brexit represents or whether they want to revisit the decision taken in 2014 ... and this time decide they would be better off taking matters into their own hands and taking back control to Scotland.”

http://www.thenational.scot/politics/15658841.Tommy_Sheppard__We___ve_got_a_mandate_for_indyref_2_and_if_you_ignore_our_wishes_we___ll_use_it/
Salmond :-

The former SNP leader, who led the last failed independence campaign, said that his successor would be forced to call another referendum as soon as possible if Britain leaves the single market in March 2019 without a transition deal in place in a 'Hard Brexit'.
"If it's a hard Brexit we are going to have a very sharp timescale," Salmond told BI, adding that Sturgeon would act quickly to help Scotland "avoid" the effects of Britain leaving the single market without a transition deal in place.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/alex-salmond-interview-sturgeon-brexit-scottish-independence-indyref2-russia-today-2017-11

I think it's called preparing the ground.

antrobus

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Austerity is inevitable anyway with Brexit round the corner ( Bad deal or No deal ). Everything else above is policy. Not independence which is the choice and means to shape policy.

So austerity from Brexit, and then more austerity from independence. A cunning plan.:)

Shakethedisease wrote: »

There's been lots of work done and published from various sources ( Richard Murphy, Common Space ) .. but nothing from the SNP so far. Imo they are right to be very wary of any future independence paper being far too closely associated with party policy like last time round. Now is definitely NOT the time for SNP pronouncements on Central Banks and currency. <-- these will only end up being debated and ripped to bits 24/7 in the media for months and providing a distraction from Brexit. This would never do.

Richard Murphy is a doughnut and not a source. Common space is a news website and not a source.

GERS is a source.

In any case, what the SNP has to say on the matter doesn't prevent you from telling us what should happen. This is, after all a forum where we are supposed to 'debate' the economy. As opposed to simply pumping out the party line.:)

antrobus

Shakethedisease wrote: »

It will be an independence VOTE first if you prefer to see it that way. If the UK is in a transitional phase leaving the EU and Single Market then it's a fair bet it will be a Norway style one. ..

So you keep saying. Can't see anybody else putting it forward.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

If there is no transitional phase ( no deal ) Scotland will vote between Sept 2018 and Mar 2019. If it's a vote for independence the Scottish Govt will use the paper it presented to May in December 2016 as the basis of negotiations for remaining in the Single Market. The Scottish Govt in seeking compromise with May last year, have already done 99% of the leg work involved already.

I believe that you have already conceded that there will be no referendum. You are hoping for some kind of engineered election that demonstrates support for independence. That might get you an actual referendum a couple of years later.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

As for rUK you'll be looking for trade deals I assume ? .

I would imagine that the UK will happy to discuss thte question of its future trading relationship with Scotland. Once an agreement has been reached on the share of the national debt, the divorce bill etc.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2016/12/9234[/URL

Most folks here were sneering about how none of the above could happen while Scotland is part of the UK. Well, if Scotland isn't a part of the UK....

the Scottish Government is committed to exploring with the UK Government, in the first instance, the mechanisms whereby Scotland can remain within the EEA and the European Single Market even if the rest of the UK chooses to leave.

There are no mechanisms.

EFTA member states have already made it very plain that Scotland must be independent before it will consider an application. Ditto the EU. Only nation states can join EFTA or the EU.

I keep telling you this, but it staagill hasn't got through. Should I post the links to the text of the relevant treaties again.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

As a side note while Nicola Sturgeon is keeping her powder well dry for now, it seems both Salmond and Sheppard have been tasked with the more 'radical' bell weather pronouncements. Good cop, bad cop. Sturgeon will of course play it all down, while preparing for just the scenarios they are detailing. Sheppard :- http://www.thenational.scot/politics/15658841.Tommy_Sheppard__We___ve_got_a_mandate_for_indyref_2_and_if_you_ignore_our_wishes_we___ll_use_it/
Salmond :- http://uk.businessinsider.com/alex-salmond-interview-sturgeon-brexit-scottish-independence-indyref2-russia-today-2017-11

I think it's called preparing the ground.

I think it's called keeping quiet and hoping that something might tun up:rotfl:

Shakethedisease

antrobus wrote: »

So austerity from Brexit, and then more austerity from independence. A cunning plan.:)

Not really. Unless you think that staying in a Union which imposes austerity, and is about to impose more austerity on top of due to something the Scottish electorate didn't vote for... is a good idea ?

Richard Murphy is a doughnut and not a source. Common space is a news website and not a source.

GERS is a source.

GERS is a flawed set of regional accounts within a UK context. Not an economic plan or system for an independent country. I'm surprised you give it any credence as such. Whether you give Murphy or Common Space the time of day or not is of no relevance.. all it shows is that work has been done and/or is in progress by various entities with the possibilities/options published.. I've explained exactly why there will be no SNP announcements

In any case, what the SNP has to say on the matter doesn't prevent you from telling us what should happen. This is, after all a forum where we are supposed to 'debate' the economy. As opposed to simply pumping out the party line.:)

But neither you or I know what either the Scottish nor the UK economy is going to look like in the event of a hard Brexit with no transition. Or even with a transition ? Can you tell us all how the UK economy will be affected ?

I've explained to you why there will be a vote of some sort.. and just to clarify the matter once again. Sturgeon will 100% call a vote should Scotland look like being removed from the Single Market. It will not matter what the opinion polls say, and it will not matter what Westminster say. A vote will be called regardless and the consequences dealt with later after the results are in. This scenario has been the same since the Brexit vote.

The above vote will be called because of the effect of Brexit on the Scottish economy. No one by that point will give a stuff what currency Scotland will be using ( Scottish £, pegged for a short period ) when there are farms, businesses, jobs and uni's going under left, right and center. And certainly not when Scotland voted for none of it. It's politically unsustainable.

..Unless the UK stays in the Single Market ?

antrobus

Shakethedisease wrote: »

..Not really. Unless you think that staying in a Union which imposes austerity, and is about to impose more austerity on top of due to something the Scottish electorate didn't vote for... is a good idea ?

What are you on about?

Leaving the Union means giving up the annual subsidy of 8 billion odd. How is that not going to mean more austerity?

Shakethedisease wrote: »

..

GERS is a flawed set of regional accounts within a UK context. Not an economic plan or system for an independent country. I'm surprised you give it any credence as such. Whether you give Murphy or Common Space the time of day or not is of no relevance.. all it shows is that work has been done and/or is in progress by various entities with the possibilities/options published.. I've explained exactly why there will be no SNP announcements

GERS is a national statistic. It's not an economic plan. It's a statement of Scotland's fiscal position.You can't wish it away with verbiage.

P.S. I don't care whether or not there will be any SNP announcements. I'm waiting for your announcements.

Your refusal to debate the issue has already been noted.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

..
But neither you or I know what either the Scottish nor the UK economy is going to look like in the event of a hard Brexit with no transition. Or even with a transition ? Can you tell us all how the UK economy will be affected ?

Really? You've been telling us it will be a "disaster":)

I have made no economic predictions. Nor have I any intention of doing so.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

..
I've explained to you why there will be a vote of some sort.. and just to clarify the matter once again. Sturgeon will 100% call a vote should Scotland look like being removed from the Single Market. It will not matter what the opinion polls say, and it will not matter what Westminster say. A vote will be called regardless and the consequences dealt with later after the results are in. This scenario has been the same since the Brexit vote...

I know. And I've told you that "a vote of some sort" isn't a vote for independence. In the real world you need a referendum.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

..

The above vote will be called because of the effect of Brexit on the Scottish economy. No one by that point will give a stuff what currency Scotland will be using ( Scottish £, pegged for a short period ) when there are farms, businesses, jobs and uni's going under left, right and center. And certainly not when Scotland voted for none of it. It's politically unsustainable.

..Unless the UK stays in the Single Market ?

What "effect of Brexit on the Scottish economy"? You've just told us that you don't know what the effect will be.

Hilarious.

Thrugelmir

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Austerity is inevitable anyway [STRIKE]with Brexit round the corner ( Bad deal or No deal ).[/STRIKE]

Corrected for you. Best to leave illusions to magicians.