The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Shakethedisease

.string. wrote: »

For your pleasure and enjoyment, here is a part of the Tory Manifesto explaining some policies regarding Scotland.

If only there was some sort of mechanism, perhaps a chamber of representatives, that some people in Scotland could have to reflect and act upon their will. It could be proportional, so as to ensure that it was a fairly accurate gauge of said will.

Note that May has not said no to a Referendum but stated that it should take place only when "the Brexit process has played out" and when there is "public consent for it". Not a mile away from what I wrote a few posts back.

So that's it then, we can now wait and see what Sturgeon's imagination comes up with.

It is worth noting that there is much in those sentences pointing to special efforts to improve Scotland's lot with special attention to the border area and future trade deals. The inference is clear which is that when Brexit is played out, there will be several trade goodies lined up for Scotland derived from its continued inclusion in our United Kingdom. Separation into the wilderness of not belonging to any trade block will become even !essence attractive.

I like it, as no doubt will the SNP, seeing all this TLC being shown to my fellow countrymen and women in Scotland.

This is all part of the mandate that May seeks in the GE.

String, no one is going to wait past 2021 in Scotland for Brexit to play out ( next Holyrood election ). Sturgeon will only strengthen her mandate for another ref/vote during this one over Scotland staying in the Single Market, and taking a majority of seats as full public backing and endorsement of the Scottish Parliament's wishes.

After June 8th the Scottish Parliament will press on regardless. There's nothing really more to be said because after June 8th there's nothing further you can really do about it. Apart from bang on about vote shares which will be forgotten in a few months time anyway as the Brexit talks get going ( if they ever do ). But you won't stop a referendum vote off the back of a crap Tory vote share in Scotland. Sorry.

.string.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

If only there was some sort of mechanism, perhaps a chamber of representatives, that some people in Scotland could have to reflect and act upon their will. It could be proportional, so as to ensure that it was a fairly accurate gauge of said will.


String, no one is going to wait past 2021 in Scotland for Brexit to play out ( next Holyrood election ). Sturgeon will only strengthen her mandate for another ref/vote during this one over Scotland staying in the Single Market, and taking a majority of seats as full public backing and endorsement of the Scottish Parliament's wishes.

After June 8th the Scottish Parliament will press on regardless. There's nothing really more to be said because after June 8th there's nothing further you can really do about it. Apart from bang on about vote shares which will be forgotten in a few months time anyway as the Brexit talks get going ( if they ever do ). But you won't stop a referendum vote off the back of a crap Tory vote share in Scotland. Sorry.

Methinks you overestimate Sturgeon & Co and underestimate not just May but, more crucially, your fellow Scots..

HornetSaver

For me, public consent means a majority of MSPs being elected on the specific promise of delivering a referendum in the following Holyrood parliament.

The SNP have of course always been in favour of independence, but in 2016 the manifesto was very much focussed on increasing the powers available for Holyrood and using them to improve Scotland and thus strengthen the case for Scottish independence (paraphrasing them, not necessarily my own view), as opposed to 2011 where it was very much focussed on holding an independence referendum. They may be two paths towards the same end goal, but they're nonetheless two distinct things.

For a reasonable comparison, UK-wide parties have had Eurosceptic leanings in their manifestos for decades, and on previous occasions the idea of an EU referendum has been half-heartedly touted (not exclusively the Tories, and not unlike the way in which the SNP approached the topic in 2016 before what they assumed was the formality a Remain vote). But the 2015 Tory manifesto was very explicit about an in/out, no ifs, no buts, EU referendum, and they got one.

Given that they have actually lost a referendum on this issue in the recent past, I don't think it's unreasonable to say to the SNP - Greens as well if we're talking about a nationalist coalition - that an explicit pledge for a referendum in their next Holyrood (N.B. Holyrood) manifesto(s) should be a prerequisite to that referendum being held. Nothing at all to stop them taking the same approach the Tories have in calling a snap election if they genuinely believe the circumstances are swinging in the direction they want and they're unwilling to wait until 2021.

Shakethedisease

.string. wrote: »

Methinks you overestimate Sturgeon & Co and underestimate not just May but, more crucially, your fellow Scots..

May, no I don't underestimate her. However regarding Scotland.

1) Public consent has already been given.
2) No one but Tricky and other people are assuming that 'vote share' in this GE is going to be some sort of benchmark. May's reference to public consent can be anything she wants it to mean.
3) My fellow Scots. The 45% in Sept 2014 have remained solidly committed to independence it seems and aren't going away.
There are about 30% who are solidly unionist and/or Tory leaning not necessarily both). The rest are looking on in growing horror over this May govt, and the council elections the other week gave them a huge wake up call. Scottish Labour is imploding, Dugdale will probably be leaving very soon. Much will depend on who replaces her if they replace their absolute anti-independence stance with anti-Tory then the whole narrative changes.
4) The SNP's manifesto launch is on Tuesday. I expect May will get a robust reply about public consent then. The SNP will then go on to win most Scottish seats a few weeks later. The Scottish Parliament after that pressing on with referendum/vote plans for when Brexit terms are clear ( Sept 18- March 19 ).

IveSeenTheLight

HornetSaver wrote: »

For me, public consent means a majority of MSPs being elected on the specific promise of delivering a referendum in the following Holyrood parliament.

The SNP have of course always been in favour of independence, but in 2016 the manifesto was very much focussed on increasing the powers available for Holyrood and using them to improve Scotland and thus strengthen the case for Scottish independence (paraphrasing them, not necessarily my own view), as opposed to 2011 where it was very much focussed on holding an independence referendum. They may be two paths towards the same end goal, but they're nonetheless two distinct things.

For a reasonable comparison, UK-wide parties have had Eurosceptic leanings in their manifestos for decades, and on previous occasions the idea of an EU referendum has been half-heartedly touted (not exclusively the Tories, and not unlike the way in which the SNP approached the topic in 2016 before what they assumed was the formality a Remain vote). But the 2015 Tory manifesto was very explicit about an in/out, no ifs, no buts, EU referendum, and they got one.

Given that they have actually lost a referendum on this issue in the recent past, I don't think it's unreasonable to say to the SNP - Greens as well if we're talking about a nationalist coalition - that an explicit pledge for a referendum in their next Holyrood (N.B. Holyrood) manifesto(s) should be a prerequisite to that referendum being held. Nothing at all to stop them taking the same approach the Tories have in calling a snap election if they genuinely believe the circumstances are swinging in the direction they want and they're unwilling to wait until 2021.

A very good post, but why the need to wait for the next election?
A vote was held by the MSPs with a result for IndyRef2

mollycat

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

A very good post, but why the need to wait for the next election?
A vote was held by the MSPs with a result for IndyRef2

Read it again.....maybe you will be able to understand it the 2nd time around!:)

mollycat

Shakethedisease wrote: »

May, no I don't underestimate her. However regarding Scotland.

1) Public consent has already been given.
2) No one but Tricky and other people are assuming that 'vote share' in this GE is going to be some sort of benchmark. May's reference to public consent can be anything she wants it to mean.
3) My fellow Scots. The 45% in Sept 2014 have remained solidly committed to independence it seems and aren't going away.
There are about 30% who are solidly unionist and/or Tory leaning not necessarily both). The rest are looking on in growing horror over this May govt, and the council elections the other week gave them a huge wake up call. Scottish Labour is imploding, Dugdale will probably be leaving very soon. Much will depend on who replaces her if they replace their absolute anti-independence stance with anti-Tory then the whole narrative changes.
4) The SNP's manifesto launch is on Tuesday. I expect May will get a robust reply about public consent then. The SNP will then go on to win most Scottish seats a few weeks later. The Scottish Parliament after that pressing on with referendum/vote plans for when Brexit terms are clear ( Sept 18- March 19 ).

Fantasy presented as fact.
ESPECIALLY the bits i've put in bold.

Shakethedisease

HornetSaver wrote: »

For me, public consent means a majority of MSPs being elected on the specific promise of delivering a referendum in the following Holyrood parliament.

The SNP have of course always been in favour of independence, but in 2016 the manifesto was very much focussed on increasing the powers available for Holyrood and using them to improve Scotland and thus strengthen the case for Scottish independence (paraphrasing them, not necessarily my own view), as opposed to 2011 where it was very much focussed on holding an independence referendum. They may be two paths towards the same end goal, but they're nonetheless two distinct things.

For a reasonable comparison, UK-wide parties have had Eurosceptic leanings in their manifestos for decades, and on previous occasions the idea of an EU referendum has been half-heartedly touted (not exclusively the Tories, and not unlike the way in which the SNP approached the topic in 2016 before what they assumed was the formality a Remain vote). But the 2015 Tory manifesto was very explicit about an in/out, no ifs, no buts, EU referendum, and they got one.

Given that they have actually lost a referendum on this issue in the recent past, I don't think it's unreasonable to say to the SNP - Greens as well if we're talking about a nationalist coalition - that an explicit pledge for a referendum in their next Holyrood (N.B. Holyrood) manifesto(s) should be a prerequisite to that referendum being held. Nothing at all to stop them taking the same approach the Tories have in calling a snap election if they genuinely believe the circumstances are swinging in the direction they want and they're unwilling to wait until 2021.

An election is a possibility I agree. But given the timing and everything that's gone on leading up to it, if it happens it's likely to be an election held on independence itself rather than a referendum. Otherwise we'd be having an election based on holding a referendum, then another election on independence ( since there won't be a section 30 issued ). It's a long way round for a short cut and involves two separate elections. I don't think that's feasible.

Unless Sturgeon goes to court over the legal stuff and section 30's first of course. Which is still also a distinct possibility in the next year or so if there's no section 30.

Shakethedisease

mollycat wrote: »

Fantasy presented as fact.
ESPECIALLY the bits i've put in bold.

You never bother to refute anything. Moving on..

.string.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

May, no I don't underestimate her. However regarding Scotland.

1) Public consent has already been given.
2) No one but Tricky and other people are assuming that 'vote share' in this GE is going to be some sort of benchmark. May's reference to public consent can be anything she wants it to mean.
3) My fellow Scots. The 45% in Sept 2014 have remained solidly committed to independence it seems and aren't going away.
There are about 30% who are solidly unionist and/or Tory leaning not necessarily both). The rest are looking on in growing horror over this May govt, and the council elections the other week gave them a huge wake up call. Scottish Labour is imploding, Dugdale will probably be leaving very soon. Much will depend on who replaces her if they replace their absolute anti-independence stance with anti-Tory then the whole narrative changes.
4) The SNP's manifesto launch is on Tuesday. I expect May will get a robust reply about public consent then. The SNP will then go on to win most Scottish seats a few weeks later. The Scottish Parliament after that pressing on with referendum/vote plans for when Brexit terms are clear ( Sept 18- March 19 ).

I particularly liked your #2.

Did you realise that

No one but yourself and other people are assuming that 'vote share' in this GE is not going to be some sort of benchmark.

It was a funny remark.

Anyway for the rest of the points it was recycled spin stuff.Old stuff.

We shall obviously have to wait and see how this "plays out", to coin a phrase.

Is the GE about Neverendums now? I've lost track of SNP Party oscillations on this.