The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

ruggedtoast

Tromking wrote: »

Even if Scotland did commit the biggest act of economic hari kiri in history by leaving the Union, I`m sure the rUK would respond in kind by tweaking Scotland`s idiotic nose. You don`t p*ss off the people who buy 90% of your goods I would suggest. There`s a febrile atmosphere in England at the moment and Salmond got a taste of that on QT tonight. Sturgeon would do well to shut her trap for a week or two till things calm down a bit, she won`t like us if we get really angry.

What happens when we get really angry; we shoot ourselves in our other foot perhaps?

The thing you people need to wrap your heads around is that you have next to no support from anyone who you expect to enact your idiotic Leave policy.

Young people don't want Brexit, educated people don't want Brexit. The head of the Leave campaign looks like he regrets the whole thing and wants to go home, virtually no MPs want Brexit apart from the one MP that UKIP manages to field.

No one would blame the Scots for wanting to leave the UK and stay in the EU, the ECB will practically give them a blank cheque to join.

So you'll just have to stew in your futile rage, realise how little anyone else in the world gives a toss about Little Englanders and perhaps wonder if we weren't actually better off before.

abinanthanb

Most of the English here think that Scotland has the advantage over England by being in the UK, but they don't want Scotland to leave the UK. Why? Is it not logical to let the Scots !!!!!! off from the Union?

molerat

Shakethedisease wrote: »

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-scotland-germany-idUSKCN0ZC0QT

Scotland welcome to join EU, Merkel ally says

An independent Scotland would be welcome to join the European Union, a senior German lawmaker and ally of Chancellor Angela Merkel has said after Britain's vote to leave the bloc.
"The EU will still consist of 28 member states, as I expect a new independence referendum in Scotland, which will then be successful," said Gunther Krichbaum, a member of Merkel's conservatives and chairman of the European affairs committee in parliament.
"We should respond quickly to an application for admission from the EU-friendly country," he told the Welt am Sonntag newspaper.

Which means what exactly ? Just empty words with a more anti UK sour grapes sentiment than pro Scotland. No mention of any special treatment.

Shakethedisease

molerat wrote: »

Which means what exactly ? Just empty words with a more anti UK sour grapes sentiment than pro Scotland. No mention of any special treatment.

Let's see what happens shall we...

Ireland should help fast-track Scotland back into EU – Fianna F!il

“I and my party believe that it would be unacceptable for Scotland to be treated as a normal candidate country should it seek to remain as a member of the EU.
“It currently implements all EU laws. It manifestly would not need to be reviewed for its standards of governance and ability to implement EU laws.

“It has a strong administration, a distinct legal system and an absolute commitment to European ideals,” Mr Martin told an emergency D!il debate on the outcome of the EU referendum.

“Scotland is strong enough to advocate for itself, but Ireland should be its friend and demand fair play should it seek to remain in the EU.

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/ireland-should-help-fasttrack-scotland-back-into-eu-fianna-fil-34836790.html

LEADING EUROPEAN POLITICIANS have expressed support for Scotland continuing within the European Union.
Influential figures from Poland, France, Germany and Belgium have spoken out in support of Scotland’s place in the union.

https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/8702/european-politicians-extend-hand-friendship-scotland-after-brexit-vote

President of the @EU_Commission @JunckerEU will meet with Scottish representatives, spokesperson confirms.

TrickyTree83

I really cannot understand the choice between being a member of the UK or being a member of the EU.

On one hand you have a disproportionate representation, where 4 million people (eligible voters) are represented by over 50 MP's in Westminster.

The other would be a drastically reduced minority representation in the EU. Bizzare in terms of a voice in how you're governed.

In terms of the EU ref that we just had (I've rounded up which is in favour of Remain/"SNP"):

- Out of 4 million eligible voters in the EU ref there were 2.7 that voted.
- 1.7m voted to remain. That's ~43% of the eligible vote.
- The leave side had ~25% of the eligible vote. This was based on a turnout of 67%.
- Leaving 1.3m people eligible to vote who didn't in the EU ref.

- During the Scottish parliament elections the turnout was 55.6% of the eligible vote (which included 16-17 year olds). The SNP had 46.5% of that turnout (so lower turnout = higher SNP support?).

I couldn't find figures for the total eligible vote for the Scottish parliamentary elections, it'll be higher than 4m due to the inclusion of 16-17 year olds. Assuming it's close to 4m, that would mean the SNP is governing on the votes of ~1.2m people in Scotland. Remarkably close to the 1.7m that voted to Remain.

None of this points to increased support for the SNP's agenda, it all appears to be assumed, like polls, and elections in recent history point to polls being, well... wrong. In the one referendum/vote where the turnout was extremely high - the Independence referendum with a turnout of 84.55% (unusually high) - that was won 55.3% to 44.7%, indicating (to me at least) that the non-voters in the Scottish parliament elections and the EU ref are opposed to the SNP's agenda.

It looks like the SNP would need to swing opinion by 10% in order to secure independence, something they've failed to do in the last 3 major votes that have taken place. The evidence suggests that when there is a high turnout that the SNP is on the losing side.

HornetSaver

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

It looks like the SNP would need to swing opinion by 10% in order to secure independence, something they've failed to do in the last 3 major votes that have taken place. The evidence suggests that when there is a high turnout that the SNP is on the losing side.

Point accepted in the case of the General election and Holyrood election. But to compare the Scotland-wide results of those two, with the UK-wide result of the referendum, is akin to comparing apples with meat feast pizzas.

If we're talking about Scotland, then the SNP were very decisively on the winning side of the referendum argument. If we're talking about the UK-wide referendum result, how on earth is a party which is only interested in 8% of the country's population supposed to sway the other 92%? Scotland was never considered a significant factor in the outcome of the referendum, not because its opinion didn't matter, but because it was always going to produce a large remain majority. Wales and northern England were the real battlegrounds, because they had the largest proportion of soft voters which could have gone either way, and who in the event swung quite heavily in favour of leave.

wotsthat

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Let's see what happens shall we...

Time will tell of course but it's far too early to start suggesting there's a groundswell of support for Scotland entering the EU. Things will look much clearer when/ if it's absolutely clear the UK is on the way. At that point Scotland won't be a lever the EU can use to encourage the UK to stay. Scotland are currently bailed out day after day by rUK and I can't see why the EU would want the liability.

Oh, and a reference from Ireland is nice but it's only slightly more helpful than a nod from Greece.

TrickyTree83

HornetSaver wrote: »

Point accepted in the case of the General election and Holyrood election. But to compare the Scotland-wide results of those two, with the UK-wide result of the referendum, is akin to comparing apples with meat feast pizzas.

All of the comparisons were internal to Scotland so that the eligible vote and voting patterns were of a comparable size.

It seems to me to be a legitimate comparison due to the number of votes for the side the SNP were campaigning for. It appears to refelect the SNP core vote +/- a few extra from other political leanings obviously. So it's not quite the comparison you suggest.

HornetSaver wrote: »

If we're talking about Scotland, then the SNP were very decisively on the winning side of the referendum argument. If we're talking about the UK-wide referendum result, how on earth is a party which is only interested in 8% of the country's population supposed to sway the other 92%? Scotland was never considered a significant factor in the outcome of the referendum, not because its opinion didn't matter, but because it was always going to produce a large remain majority. Wales and northern England were the real battlegrounds, because they had the largest proportion of soft voters which could have gone either way, and who in the event swung quite heavily in favour of leave.

I was looking at it in terms of the so called "mandate" Nicola and Alex constantly bang on about. When you look at the numbers and the recent historic voting patterns in Scotland it appears that the SNP are deftly able to get their core vote out to push their agenda but when it comes to votes with larger turnouts they get voted down. It's by no means a foregone conclusion that a 2nd Indy ref would yield the result they want and that by some bizarre method the Scottish people would vote to Remain in the EU but also vote to be taken out of the EU by remaining in the Union.

ruggedtoast

Sturgeon is canny, she will bide her time while Westminster and the Tories continue imploding then choose when or if to call a referendum. If she does it will be on her and Scotland's terms with an agreement in place already with the EU.

She will not accept that Scotland ever withdraws from the EU, nor I imagine will Edinburgh Airport enforce any immigration restrictions on EU members.

The Leave people have created an absolute constitutional nightmare. But thats OK because they are going to sort it out and they comprise some of the greatest minds that humanity has ever known.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

All of the comparisons were internal to Scotland so that the eligible vote and voting patterns were of a comparable size.

It seems to me to be a legitimate comparison due to the number of votes for the side the SNP were campaigning for. It appears to refelect the SNP core vote +/- a few extra from other political leanings obviously. So it's not quite the comparison you suggest.



I was looking at it in terms of the so called "mandate" Nicola and Alex constantly bang on about. When you look at the numbers and the recent historic voting patterns in Scotland it appears that the SNP are deftly able to get their core vote out to push their agenda but when it comes to votes with larger turnouts they get voted down. It's by no means a foregone conclusion that a 2nd Indy ref would yield the result they want and that by some bizarre method the Scottish people would vote to Remain in the EU but also vote to be taken out of the EU by remaining in the Union.

I think you're in serious danger of forgetting about all the other political parties in Holyrood. Greens are pro-indy, and after Thursday, the Lib Dems are swithering, as also are Scottish Labour.

Scottish Labour seeks possibility of staying in EU and UK

^^^^ Note that this is also the SNP's position at the moment, they've inferred that another independence referendum will depend on the outcome of talks.

Another senior figure said the initiative was agreed by the Scottish party’s national executive on Saturday. Party leaders admit privately that if this route fails and the UK quits the EU, Labour may need to consider backing a full Scottish independence referendum.
Murray, who stepped down as shadow Scottish secretary on Sunday during the revolt against Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership, said the uncertainty and delays since Friday’s result allowed pro-EU parties to examine other options.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jun/27/scottish-labour-seeks-possibility-federal-uk-brexit-aftermath

This is no longer just about the SNP, or SNP mandates. Even Ruth Davidson was firmly in the Remain camp. Goodness knows what the Scottish Tories are going to do with this mess.