The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

ruggedtoast

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I think you're in serious danger of forgetting about all the other political parties in Holyrood. Greens are pro-indy, and after Thursday, the Lib Dems are swithering, as also are Scottish Labour.

^^^^ Note that this is also the SNP's position at the moment, they've inferred that another independence referendum will depend on the outcome of talks.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jun/27/scottish-labour-seeks-possibility-federal-uk-brexit-aftermath

This is no longer just about the SNP, or SNP mandates. Even Ruth Davidson was firmly in the Remain camp. Goodness knows what the Scottish Tories are going to do with this mess.

Davidson was on the news the other day saying that she would go with the result of the referendum and wouldn't push for an exemption for Scotland.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I think you're in serious danger of forgetting about all the other political parties in Holyrood. Greens are pro-indy, and after Thursday, the Lib Dems are swithering, as also are Scottish Labour.

^^^^ Note that this is also the SNP's position at the moment, they've inferred that another independence referendum will depend on the outcome of talks.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jun/27/scottish-labour-seeks-possibility-federal-uk-brexit-aftermath

This is no longer just about the SNP, or SNP mandates. Even Ruth Davidson was firmly in the Remain camp. Goodness knows what the Scottish Tories are going to do with this mess.

Those parties in Scotland are walking into the exact same trap that the England and Wales equivalents did in the referendum. Scottish Labour may support Remain but their voters may not. The same for the other parties.

I admit that there is a large degree of uncertainty in those figures and without knowing everyones political leanings and their EU ref vote it's impossible to be highly accurate. The numbers do appear to indicate the conclusion I've drawn, and the numbers haven't been fabricated.

Certainly in England and Wales the EU ref vote did not split across party lines, quite the opposite. The point I'm making is it looks quite reasonable to assume that the Scottish EU ref vote split closely to party lines due to the numbers involved and the apparent ability of the SNP to motivate their core vote. If that is not the case then the SNP have an issue with a portion of their support opting to leave the EU?

Shakethedisease

ruggedtoast wrote: »

Davidson was on the news the other day saying that she would go with the result of the referendum and wouldn't push for an exemption for Scotland.

The Tories will keep to their 'union at any cost' narrative. But now that the EU vote is in, it will cost them dear. There's a motion today being debated in Holyrood to authorise Nicola Sturgeon and Scottish representatives to negotiate directly with the EU ( as far as is possible at the moment ) in order to keep Scotland in the EU.

I think the Remain leaving Tories are probably going to support it, or abstain.. but are drafting an ammendment that there should be no second independence referendum. But at least we'll see where all the individual parties and MSP's stand on this issue.

ruggedtoast

Shakethedisease wrote: »

The Tories will keep to their 'union at any cost' narrative. But now that the EU vote is in, it will cost them dear. There's a motion today being debated in Holyrood to authorise Nicola Sturgeon and Scottish representatives to negotiate directly with the EU ( as far as is possible at the moment ) in order to keep Scotland in the EU.

I think the Remain leaving Tories are probably going to support it, or abstain.. but are drafting an ammendment that there should be no second independence referendum. But at least we'll see where all the individual parties and MSP's stand on this issue.

I don't see any way that Scotland can negotiate with the EU without being independent, though.

Would be better just to get on with another independence referendum before you have Prime Minister Boris parking tanks on the lawn.

The Union now is finished anyway, no point dragging it out.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Those parties in Scotland are walking into the exact same trap that the England and Wales equivalents did in the referendum. Scottish Labour may support Remain but their voters may not. The same for the other parties.

I admit that there is a large degree of uncertainty in those figures and without knowing everyones political leanings and their EU ref vote it's impossible to be highly accurate. The numbers do appear to indicate the conclusion I've drawn, and the numbers haven't been fabricated.

Certainly in England and Wales the EU ref vote did not split across party lines, quite the opposite. The point I'm making is it looks quite reasonable to assume that the Scottish EU ref vote split closely to party lines due to the numbers involved and the apparent ability of the SNP to motivate their core vote. If that is not the case then the SNP have an issue with a portion of their support opting to leave the EU?

SNP voters aren't a homeogenic group any more than any other party is. What IS known is that by and large, most of them support Scottish independence, regardless of what they think on leaving or staying in the EU.

QED in any second indy ref, they would still vote for Scottish independence, even if they voted Leave in the EU referendum.

There's also the fact that in any future indy ref, both 16/17 year olds, as well as EU nationals ( who voted No last time, but would swap directly to Yes based on remaining in the EU )... wouldn't be excluded from voting as they were in the EU referendum vote. Also the Scottish media is turning and fully supporting a possible independence referendum if it is the only means <---- and this is important to stress, and the current position of most Scottish parties including the SNP, of Scotland staying within the EU.

It's important that Nicola Sturgeon and the cross party commission she is setting up exhaust all avenues before calling any second referendum. Only then can they turn to the country and say 'we tried but alas, only by voting to leave the UK, can we stay in the EU'.

Everything is up in the air at the moment though, and anything can happen. Uncharted waters and all that.

TrickyTree83

The numbers rarely lie.

It would be surprising to see a Yes vote to independence from the UK.

Many years (more than article 50) to disentangle the Union. Questionable economy, reduced government revenue, loss of currency control, and probably many more issues people more learned than myself can point out.

Although Scotland did vote to remain in a UK referendum I can't see Sturgeon's actions as anything other than grandstanding at the moment. It doesn't help Scotland as it introduces even more uncertainty than that of the rest of the UK and there is no indication of a swing and no formal indication that an indy ref will even take place, only lectures from a nationalist first minister with that particular single issue agenda.

Assuming she manages to stop the UK leaving the EU. Surely that then means no indy ref? Ever. The once in a lifetime vote is just that. If Scotland blocks the will of the majority of the UK I think the knives will be out for Nicola and her merry men.

Remaining in the Union but slapping down the democratic vote of the British people will make Scotland a pariah in the Union. Blocking the democratic vote, they may as well leave, I could only see a Tory government (because Scotland votes SNP) punishing/ignoring Scotland on many issues. The nationalist political party is divisive in the Union, and if the Scottish remain they will have to answer for that.

ruggedtoast

The prospect of another referendum in Scotland may well be enough to put the brakes on Article 50 being submitted to the EU. The EU will make Cameron squirm today about why they havent submitted it.

Shakethedisease

ruggedtoast wrote: »

I don't see any way that Scotland can negotiate with the EU without being independent, though.

Would be better just to get on with another independence referendum before you have Prime Minister Boris parking tanks on the lawn.

The Union now is finished anyway, no point dragging it out.

I guess it's because right now everything is so messy and uncertain.

The BBC and Sky news were broadcasting Farage at the EU parliament, and I think the BBC (accidentally by the looks of it as they hastily commented that this was just a Scottish MEP and not Farage ) broadcast this as Alyn Smith spoke soon afterwards. It's encouraging, a standing ovation in the EU parliament. Brilliant speech.

"Scotland did not let you down, do not let Scotland down"

Scottish MEP receives standing ovation in European Parliament after passionate speech saying Scotland 'voted to remain'

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-referendum-scottish-mep-alyn-smith-standing-ovation-in-european-parliament-speech-scotland-a7107106.html

ruggedtoast

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I guess it's because right now everything is so messy and uncertain.

The BBC and Sky news were broadcasting Farage at the EU parliament, and I think the BBC (accidentally by the looks of it as they hastily commented that this was just a Scottish MEP and not Farage ) broadcast this as Alyn Smith spoke soon afterwards. It's encouraging, a standing ovation in the EU parliament. Brilliant speech.

"Scotland did not let you down, do not let Scotland down"

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-referendum-scottish-mep-alyn-smith-standing-ovation-in-european-parliament-speech-scotland-a7107106.html

Mostly I would like to see another Indy ref announced to keep the pressure up on the Tories. It would be fitting if Cameron was still in post during Scottish secession.

That would mean he would be responsible for totally fking up three referendums in a row.

CLAPTON

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I guess it's because right now everything is so messy and uncertain.

The BBC and Sky news were broadcasting Farage at the EU parliament, and I think the BBC (accidentally by the looks of it as they hastily commented that this was just a Scottish MEP and not Farage ) broadcast this as Alyn Smith spoke soon afterwards. It's encouraging, a standing ovation in the EU parliament. Brilliant speech.

"Scotland did not let you down, do not let Scotland down"

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-referendum-scottish-mep-alyn-smith-standing-ovation-in-european-parliament-speech-scotland-a7107106.html

it is a surprise that the EU parliament (full of europhiles) praise a sycophantic speech in favour of the EU.

but with Scotland being keen to assume the UK contribution payments, in exchange for EU students edging out Scottish ones at their own Unis, it certainly make sense to make as many friends as possible.