The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Tromking

Shakethedisease wrote: »

No, it's not a defacto referendum on independence at all. We will have an actual referendum or vote on that later on. It's a General Election on the make up of the UK parliament in Westminster, the Scottish independence question isn't being asked. Why do you think it's quite clear this is an independence vote Tricky ? Where are you getting that idea from if you don't mind me asking ?

No one gets to decide the hidden rationale and motivations of the electorate in any one election. It is what it is.
Even if you don't have to, Sturgeon will have to factor in the reasons why the Scottish people voted how they did on June 8th.
She wouldn't be the Politician you think she is, if she didn't.

.string.

Shaka_Zulu wrote: »

The party only ever has one real priority, and that is winning independence. All else is a means to end. It is utterly obsessed, but the majority of Scottish voters who do not share the obsession have started to notice that rather than the Nationalists offering technocratic devolved competence, as promised, they instead serve up worse than mediocre fare.

There were flashes of the old assured Sturgeon on Marr and Peston this weekend. She gets on, she said, with the “girl job” of running the country and her husband does the cooking, a riff on May’s “girl and boy jobs” remarks in the BBC’s One Show interview last week. Actually, the assertion by Sturgeon was a bit disingenuous. Sturgeon’s husband is chief executive of the SNP. Is there a more relentlessly political couple this side of the Clintons?

Unfortunately for Sturgeon, the puffed-up SNP is now suffering the Scottish equivalent of trouble in Michigan, with voters who had been taken for granted growing sceptical and the leadership reduced to doing what used to work – shouting evil “Torees” – in the hope that it magically starts working again. It is not working, yet, although it is conceivable it could rally support in the final weeks.

The media is biting back too. On the Marr show on Sunday, in particular, Sturgeon was most unconvincing on the state of Scotland’s schools.

Added to that, the party’s Brexit strategy is very obviously and publicly unravelling. After Scotland voted Remain (62-38) and the rest of the UK did otherwise, the SNP thought that it would infuriate Scots and power the final push to independence. That simply didn’t happen because many people sensibly see that the negotiations will be complex and think it is probably best getting all that done before even thinking about overturning the 2014 pro-Union vote. This realism gives an extra piquancy to the SNP failing to get on with its devolved day job.

Sturgeon is now stuck. Her case on the EU defies basic logic. Brexit and leaving the EU is supposedly so terrible that there should be a second independence referendum within two years, to get Scotland back into the EU. Yet now, because a third of Nats voted for Brexit, the SNP has shifted away from EU membership, the very thing which is supposed to necessitate independence. Sturgeon will probably soon have to commit to a referendum on the EU, if she wants to deal somehow with the contradiction.

The unravelling is so rapid and interesting precisely because the three aspects of the SNP’s problem – being exposed on Brexit, domestic policy failure and the perception of Sturgeon having fallen for her own hype – are mutually self-reinforcing. Each when mentioned amplifies the other.

The SNP will, of course, win the most seats in Scotland on June 8th. It made such vast advances in 2015 – winning 56 out of 59 seats – that it could not do otherwise. The SNP election machine is formidable and honed to something akin to perfection. But the party on current trends is headed backwards, when, as I keep pointing out, its entire schtick is supposed to be forward momentum towards the supposedly glorious day of independence.

In response, the clearly spooked SNP leadership is behaving just as parties on the turn usually behave. After the extraordinary rise and years of ceaseless advance, the SNP leadership has grown a wee bit too smug and finds itself ill-equipped to adapt or respond to changed circumstances. It’s very funny to watch.


https://reaction.life/nicola-sturgeon-snp-unravelling-rapidly/

Thanks for posting that and the link you gave. It was part of a very interesting article and the site has some good articles

.string.

Tromking wrote: »

No one gets to decide the hidden rationale and motivations of the electorate in any one election. It is what it is.
Even if you don't have to, Sturgeon will have to factor in the reasons why the Scottish people voted how they did on June 8th.
She wouldn't be the Politician you think she is, if she didn't.

Exactly right - she has in effect admitted that the GE is highly relevant to the referendum issue

Indyref2: Nicola Sturgeon delays setting out referendum plans

cogito

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I'm alone on here yes. But you still didn't answer the question I asked as to what you think is going to happen with those dozen Tory MP's ?

You forfeit the right to demand answers to your questions when you avoid answering the inconvenient ones yourself.

Or maybe you just don't see them which is your usual lame excuse when challenged. Then you go right ahead and don't answer anyway.

cogito

Shaka_Zulu wrote: »

The party only ever has one real priority, and that is winning independence. All else is a means to end. It is utterly obsessed, but the majority of Scottish voters who do not share the obsession have started to notice that rather than the Nationalists offering technocratic devolved competence, as promised, they instead serve up worse than mediocre fare.

There were flashes of the old assured Sturgeon on Marr and Peston this weekend. She gets on, she said, with the “girl job” of running the country and her husband does the cooking, a riff on May’s “girl and boy jobs” remarks in the BBC’s One Show interview last week. Actually, the assertion by Sturgeon was a bit disingenuous. Sturgeon’s husband is chief executive of the SNP. Is there a more relentlessly political couple this side of the Clintons?

Unfortunately for Sturgeon, the puffed-up SNP is now suffering the Scottish equivalent of trouble in Michigan, with voters who had been taken for granted growing sceptical and the leadership reduced to doing what used to work – shouting evil “Torees” – in the hope that it magically starts working again. It is not working, yet, although it is conceivable it could rally support in the final weeks.

The media is biting back too. On the Marr show on Sunday, in particular, Sturgeon was most unconvincing on the state of Scotland’s schools.

Added to that, the party’s Brexit strategy is very obviously and publicly unravelling. After Scotland voted Remain (62-38) and the rest of the UK did otherwise, the SNP thought that it would infuriate Scots and power the final push to independence. That simply didn’t happen because many people sensibly see that the negotiations will be complex and think it is probably best getting all that done before even thinking about overturning the 2014 pro-Union vote. This realism gives an extra piquancy to the SNP failing to get on with its devolved day job.

Sturgeon is now stuck. Her case on the EU defies basic logic. Brexit and leaving the EU is supposedly so terrible that there should be a second independence referendum within two years, to get Scotland back into the EU. Yet now, because a third of Nats voted for Brexit, the SNP has shifted away from EU membership, the very thing which is supposed to necessitate independence. Sturgeon will probably soon have to commit to a referendum on the EU, if she wants to deal somehow with the contradiction.

The unravelling is so rapid and interesting precisely because the three aspects of the SNP’s problem – being exposed on Brexit, domestic policy failure and the perception of Sturgeon having fallen for her own hype – are mutually self-reinforcing. Each when mentioned amplifies the other.

The SNP will, of course, win the most seats in Scotland on June 8th. It made such vast advances in 2015 – winning 56 out of 59 seats – that it could not do otherwise. The SNP election machine is formidable and honed to something akin to perfection. But the party on current trends is headed backwards, when, as I keep pointing out, its entire schtick is supposed to be forward momentum towards the supposedly glorious day of independence.

In response, the clearly spooked SNP leadership is behaving just as parties on the turn usually behave. After the extraordinary rise and years of ceaseless advance, the SNP leadership has grown a wee bit too smug and finds itself ill-equipped to adapt or respond to changed circumstances. It’s very funny to watch.


https://reaction.life/nicola-sturgeon-snp-unravelling-rapidly/

That hits the nail right on the head. The SNP demanded a new referendum because the Brexit vote was the game changer which gave them the excuse. Now they are backtracking like fury because they have twigged that the Scottish electorate aren't backing them and that a third of their own supporters voted to leave.

The reason they gave for wanting a referendum is vanishing like smoke but they still want one anyway. Utterly dishonest politics from a one issue party that can't pass legislation and can't manage devolved services.

mollycat

Shaka_Zulu wrote: »

The party only ever has one real priority, and that is winning independence. All else is a means to end. It is utterly obsessed, but the majority of Scottish voters who do not share the obsession have started to notice that rather than the Nationalists offering technocratic devolved competence, as promised, they instead serve up worse than mediocre fare.

There were flashes of the old assured Sturgeon on Marr and Peston this weekend. She gets on, she said, with the “girl job” of running the country and her husband does the cooking, a riff on May’s “girl and boy jobs” remarks in the BBC’s One Show interview last week. Actually, the assertion by Sturgeon was a bit disingenuous. Sturgeon’s husband is chief executive of the SNP. Is there a more relentlessly political couple this side of the Clintons?

Unfortunately for Sturgeon, the puffed-up SNP is now suffering the Scottish equivalent of trouble in Michigan, with voters who had been taken for granted growing sceptical and the leadership reduced to doing what used to work – shouting evil “Torees” – in the hope that it magically starts working again. It is not working, yet, although it is conceivable it could rally support in the final weeks.

The media is biting back too. On the Marr show on Sunday, in particular, Sturgeon was most unconvincing on the state of Scotland’s schools.

Added to that, the party’s Brexit strategy is very obviously and publicly unravelling. After Scotland voted Remain (62-38) and the rest of the UK did otherwise, the SNP thought that it would infuriate Scots and power the final push to independence. That simply didn’t happen because many people sensibly see that the negotiations will be complex and think it is probably best getting all that done before even thinking about overturning the 2014 pro-Union vote. This realism gives an extra piquancy to the SNP failing to get on with its devolved day job.

Sturgeon is now stuck. Her case on the EU defies basic logic. Brexit and leaving the EU is supposedly so terrible that there should be a second independence referendum within two years, to get Scotland back into the EU. Yet now, because a third of Nats voted for Brexit, the SNP has shifted away from EU membership, the very thing which is supposed to necessitate independence. Sturgeon will probably soon have to commit to a referendum on the EU, if she wants to deal somehow with the contradiction.

The unravelling is so rapid and interesting precisely because the three aspects of the SNP’s problem – being exposed on Brexit, domestic policy failure and the perception of Sturgeon having fallen for her own hype – are mutually self-reinforcing. Each when mentioned amplifies the other.

The SNP will, of course, win the most seats in Scotland on June 8th. It made such vast advances in 2015 – winning 56 out of 59 seats – that it could not do otherwise. The SNP election machine is formidable and honed to something akin to perfection. But the party on current trends is headed backwards, when, as I keep pointing out, its entire schtick is supposed to be forward momentum towards the supposedly glorious day of independence.

In response, the clearly spooked SNP leadership is behaving just as parties on the turn usually behave. After the extraordinary rise and years of ceaseless advance, the SNP leadership has grown a wee bit too smug and finds itself ill-equipped to adapt or respond to changed circumstances. It’s very funny to watch.


https://reaction.life/nicola-sturgeon-snp-unravelling-rapidly/

Great post Shaka, nail on the head stuff!!

Much on here about, "what will the Tories do with their ?5-10 seats"?

Welll, perhaps not too much, but when you consider what the SNP has managed with its 50+ seats, (other than embarrassing the people they are supposed to represent), maybe it's not so relevant in the big picture.

The focus is not on will the Tories accrue some seats, what will Labour do, SNP will still be largest party etc, etc.....this GE unfortunately is all about the direction of travel of the Nationalist vote, and that is backwards.

So, ask not what 10 Tory seats can do, ask what can the SNP never do, even with 56 seats.

Maybe at the next GE scottish people can return to a sensible, non-toxic debate about the nature of government we want for the UK; this one (unfortunately), has to be a mobilising of the anti-nationalist vote to derail the fanatical and undemocratic minority screeching for " indyref2"

IveSeenTheLight

mollycat wrote: »

this GE unfortunately is all about the direction of travel of the Nationalist vote, and that is backwards.

The result of the GE in 2015 was unprecedented.
It's entirely unrealistic that the SNP would achieve 95% of the seats in the seats they have candidates in.

If you look at the 2010 GE, SNP gained only 6 seats.

This GE is not in my view about the direction of travel. This is your opinion as you realise that the SNP will still be the largest party in Scottish seats.

I'll concede direction of travel if the Conservatives win more seats than the SNP this GE.

IveSeenTheLight

.string. wrote: »

Exactly right - she has in effect admitted that the GE is highly relevant to the referendum issue

Indyref2: Nicola Sturgeon delays setting out referendum plans

Where did you derive that from?
I only see and hear the Conservatives and the Scottish Conservatives making the GE about Independence in Scotland.
"They have a constitutional obsession"

Heres what Nicola sturgeon said regarding Independence and this General election

Ms Sturgeon claimed the General Election was not about Scottish independence

IveSeenTheLight

.string. wrote: »

The SNP presence in Westminster has not been constructive, being obsessed with whingeing all the time.

Admittedly I've not seen all of the PMQ's. but of the ones I did see, I found the SNP in Westminster were far more effective in holding the government to account than LAbour did.

So I disagree with you that there presence has not been constructive.

Really, the politics of recent years should support greater desire and need for proportional representation. Would you agree with that?

Incidentally, I am fully aware that proportional representation in Westminster would mean less seats for the SNP

.string.

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Where did you derive that from?
I only see and hear the Conservatives and the Scottish Conservatives making the GE about Independence in Scotland.
"They have a constitutional obsession"

Heres what Nicola sturgeon said regarding Independence and this General election

From the link, she has delayed her plans until after June 8th

And she said (quoting from that link - other links can be found on the subject)

"Ms Sturgeon’s initial reaction was to say the 8 June vote was a chance to “reinforce” her mandate for a second referendum."