The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Shakethedisease

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Your spin must be making you dizzy.

Do you mean - apart from reducing what little mandate the SNP think they have?
Or do you mean apart from reducing SNP presence in Westminster?

Next you will say the prospect of increased Tory seats is a good thing.
(It is, for many Scots BTW.)

Soooooo. That's your answer... nothing much. I don't relish the thought of more Tory MP's, but I'm a realist enough to know what's happening with the unionist ( rather than Tory ) votes recently. I'm also realist enough to point out that it won't change anything and you're building false hopes up.

TrickyTree83

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Your spin must be making you dizzy.

Do you mean - apart from reducing what little mandate the SNP think they have?
Or do you mean apart from reducing SNP presence in Westminster?

Next you will say the prospect of increased Tory seats is a good thing.
(It is, for many Scots BTW.)

Why is the focus on seats? It's quite clear it's a defacto referendum on independence, the number of MP's held don't matter as much as the popular vote share. But everyone is acutely aware (I would think) that the SNP days in the sun are over. That vote share is going nowhere but down for the nationalist cause and the number of MP's will reduce for them anyway.

The polls for Indy are still below 50%.

The arguments are still as bad as in 2014, in some cases worse.

Brexit has changed the game, nationalists believe in their favour because of a manifesto but haven't looked at what's happening elsewhere. Support has drained from an SNP hitching its wagon to the EU. By those who don't want to be in it and now we see by those who want to be in it because Nic has finally told the truth that iScotland couldn't just go straight in, it's a halfway house with a promissory note worth less than what I'm wiping with right now. She still hasn't fessed up about trade and jobs, but to do that would cut the jugular of her own dear movement.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Why is the focus on seats?

No idea, you're making my point for me. You tell me ?

It's quite clear it's a defacto referendum on independence, the number of MP's held don't matter as much as the popular vote share. But everyone is acutely aware (I would think) that the SNP days in the sun are over. That vote share is going nowhere but down for the nationalist cause and the number of MP's will reduce for them anyway.

No, it's not a defacto referendum on independence at all. We will have an actual referendum or vote on that later on. It's a General Election on the make up of the UK parliament in Westminster, the Scottish independence question isn't being asked. Why do you think it's quite clear this is an independence vote Tricky ? Where are you getting that idea from if you don't mind me asking ?

The polls for Indy are still below 50%.

The arguments are still as bad as in 2014, in some cases worse.

Your opinion, and you do not know what the polls will show in a few years time. They tend to change over time don't they.

Brexit has changed the game, nationalists believe in their favour because of a manifesto but haven't looked at what's happening elsewhere. Support has drained from an SNP hitching its wagon to the EU. By those who don't want to be in it and now we see by those who want to be in it because Nic has finally told the truth that iScotland couldn't just go straight in, it's a halfway house with a promissory note worth less than what I'm wiping with right now. She still hasn't fessed up about trade and jobs, but to do that would cut the jugular of her own dear movement.

No it's pragmatism. If Scotland does have to leave the EU along with the UK in a transition phase to EEA/EFTA. Scotland can stay there if there's an independence vote. Sturgeon said herself that it's not what she wants, but it may become necessary. She's right on that and there's still many unknowns. Again though, it's not something likely to alienate any pro-EU voters into voting No is it. It will have the opposite effect. Brexit though I agree has changed the game. If it all goes t**s up it's goodbye Scotland.

As someone elsewhere sums up :-

A phased approach aiming for EU is a realist process which does not contradict the overall aim

Incidentally can you all let me know when it's my turn to be accused of trolling because I'm the only pro-indy poster on here today ? I'd hate to miss out.

Shaka_Zulu

Shakethedisease wrote: »

No, it's not a defacto referendum on independence at all. We will have an actual referendum or vote on that later on. It's a General Election on the make up of the UK parliament in Westminster, the Scottish independence question isn't being asked. Why do you think it's quite clear this is an independence vote Tricky ? Where are you getting that idea from if you don't mind me asking ?

I think this comment underlines how worried you are at the possible GE result.

None of us on here think the tories are going to win but that is not the issue. You might disagree but this GE is all about the popular vote.

You need to be getting 45% plus to even think of carrying on with the dream and you know just as well as the rest of us failure to get that means the end.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Soooooo. That's your answer... nothing much. I don't relish the thought of more Tory MP's, but I'm a realist enough to know what's happening with the unionist ( rather than Tory ) votes recently. I'm also realist enough to point out that it won't change anything and you're building false hopes up.

False hopes my wotsit.

It looks like you're almost alone in thinking "it won't change anything" - even your leader Nicola is accepting things will change, hence her change in tack.

And who knows - we may soon even see a change to the type of results from Scotland in the general elections of 2010 and earlier!
Bring it on!
:T

Shakethedisease

Shaka_Zulu wrote: »

I think this comment underlines how worried you are at the possible GE result.

I think my comment simply points out that this is a General Election. When Tricky and perhaps yourself can fill me in as to why you think it's "perfectly clear" that it's not a General Election, but is in fact a vote on Scottish independence then perhaps I might see your point. But as far as I'm aware we're voting for MP's to represent us at Westminster. There's no hidden caveats on the polling card.

None of us on here think the tories are going to win but that is not the issue. You might disagree but this GE is all about the popular vote.

Yes, that's where MP seats are won.

You need to be getting 45% plus to even think of carrying on with the dream and you know just as well as the rest of us failure to get that means the end.

Why ? And do you think the SNP will just stop ? Lets be perfectly clear here, the 'idea' that this GE is anything other than a GE is something you've been picking up from newspapers and from the council election literature Tories, Labour and Lib Dems have been pumping out recently.

Vote share or seats. Neither matter because it's a GE and not a defacto anything. After which there is nothing to stop the Scottish Parliament pressing ahead with plans made beforehand. Should Brexit go a pear shaped there will be another independence vote. And that's the point right there where you can truly declare that there is an independence vote in the offing.

In Scotland the Tories are polling on par with Corbyn in England and Wales. Their 'vote share' means that 3 quarters of Scottish voters are voting against whatever it is they are offering. So they'll have to come up with something much more concrete than vote share in Scotland to justify anything much I'm afraid. While you're looking at this only as far as June next month. I'm looking at this and the effects over the next few years.

Shakethedisease

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

False hopes my wotsit.

It looks like you're almost alone in thinking "it won't change anything" - even your leader Nicola is accepting things will change, hence her change in tack.

And who knows - we may soon even see a change to the type of results from Scotland in the general elections of 2010 and earlier!
Bring it on!
:T

I'm alone on here yes. But you still didn't answer the question I asked as to what you think is going to happen with those dozen Tory MP's ?

elantan

Another day of it Shake ? Ahhh glad I'm busy just now and have very little time to spend on here

Has the argument moved on at all or i's it still the same old same old ?

Not long now till June 8th and we will see what Scotland ( and the rest of the UK) decides, it does appear that May is becoming more and more like Thatcher every day ... that's always a good help for the indy cause

Every cloud and all that

Thrugelmir

elantan wrote: »

Has the argument moved on at all or i's it still the same old same old ?

Shakey is stuck in the groove. That's the problem for most overtly political types. While the world is progressively changing. To remain wedded to their principles to change with the times.

Shaka_Zulu