If we vote for Brexit what happens

NotFromRoundHere

nubbins wrote: »

"We would be buying in Berkshire if that makes a difference (I guess London could cope with a hit better than other areas)."

If you are going to buy in Berkshire buy near a Crossrail station (Twyford, Reading, Maidenhead etc), they have already gone up a lot but I think there will be a second wind nearer Crossrail completion.

As you can see from the chart you would have to be unlucky to be worse off after 5 years in the UK.....its happened twice in 70 years!!

(Had to remove the image link as I'm a new user and can't post with links)

That would unlucky! two times in 70 years is not a lot, however the UK never left the EU before, so there's that.

I guess the perspective here is that in 5 years there are chances to be worse off and/or with a property you can't sell for less than what you owe to the bank. I would sign right now if in 5 years I could have zero benefit from the sale, that means I would have had a cost of housing near zero in 5 years (compared to rent x 12 x 5!).

Also, thanks for the CrossRail tip. We heard about it and to be honest, properties close to train stations are booming at the moment (or at least their advertised prices - not sure for how much they really sell!), so high that I don't think we can afford one where we really want to live. Reading is OK, so somewhere a couple miles from the station would be fine.

I guess it also makes a difference to say that we want to live in the property we want to buy, so unfortunately we can't go for something like a Buy to Let 1-bed flat next to the station

ukcarper wrote: »

I'd say if you are moving in 5 years time it's a gamble the buying and selling costs are high and without large falls you could still be worse off.

Yes, the costs / expenses associated to the buy and sell operations are something we keep in mind. The point here is we pay around £1300/mo in rent (big, nice house in good location) which in 5 years would amount to £78k if prices don't go up. It could also go down, too...

Keeping all these into perspective I think the fall from leaving the EU has to be very, very bad to eat out that ~£78k loss buffer. Not saying it can't happen, because that's why I'm here asking but I'm becoming a little bit more optimistic.

Thank you!

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

Why would the EU agree to give us super-preferential treatment?

Again, the EU has dozens of free trade deals without any free movement of people or contribution.

We do not need to belong to the SM to trade with it, as 180 odd nations well demonstrate, with dozens of them enjoying tariff free access.


Services can piggy back into the EU by means of Equivalence, and note many firms with pass porting rights have chosen not to use them anyway, and instead sell their products by way of having a brass plate in Dublin or Luxembourg


8000 EU firms have passporting right into the UK. I do not think the EU will want this curtailed.


Even if we were singled out for not being granted free trade access (despite being a very important market which millions of EU jobs rely upon, and despite San Marino and many other tiny nations enjoying free trade), it wouldn't make much difference because companies can brass plate (many EU companies do this in the UK btw), and our devalued currency and absence of contribution equates to a 9% tariff!!


Why would the EU, knowing we're 9% better off (on Brexit) want to add an average 4% tariff which they must pay, on top of their goods being less competitive thanks to the pound?


We would collect roughly double the tariffs the EU would, that's a big boost for our coffers.


All of this without even going into the EU's need for our VOLUNTARY over commitment of military enterprise and access to our fishing grounds and deep capital markets that dwarf the EU's.

glasgowdan

��. Mobile saver is actually Jeremy Paxman and crashy is a squirming politician! Love it.

Conrad

ARTICLE 8
http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty/treaty-on-european-union-and-comments/title-1-common-provisions/6-article-8.html

“The Union shall develop a special relationship with neighbouring countries, aiming to establish an area of prosperity and good neighbourliness, founded on the values of the Union and characterised by close and peaceful relations based on cooperation.”

setmefree2

First, if we don’t leave the Customs Union and take back our own seat at the World Trade Organisation, trade secretary Liam Fox might as well shut up his new department now. For the UK would not be allowed to strike the trade deals with emerging nations that can deliver a more prosperous, faster growing economy.
But the EU’s protectionist Customs Union is harmful in other ways. It places high tariffs on agricultural produce and a 100 per cent premium on processed foods, pushing up prices for UK consumers and ensuring poor nations export only raw commodities rather than invest in the manufacturing that creates jobs and spreads prosperity.

Being locked out of economic prosperity creates a cycle of dependency through growing demands for international aid to alleviate the distress.
Examples abound. The Ghanaian tomato industry has largely been destroyed by the dumping of subsidised Italian tinned tomatoes, forcing Ghanaian farmers to migrate illegally to work on Italian tomato farms where they are known as “the invisible ones of the harvest”. Without growing a single coffee bean, Germany profits more from processing coffee than the whole of Africa does from growing it. Similar tariffs, subsidies and quotas have hit the Caribbean sugar cane industry to the benefit of European sugar beet farmers.

http://www.cityam.com/250135/leave-eus-customs-union-serious-trade-and-aid-policy

Crashy_Time

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-24/foreign-buying-plummets-vancouver-sales-foreigners-crash-less-1

ukcarper

NotFromRoundHere wrote: »

That would unlucky! two times in 70 years is not a lot, however the UK never left the EU before, so there's that.

I guess the perspective here is that in 5 years there are chances to be worse off and/or with a property you can't sell for less than what you owe to the bank. I would sign right now if in 5 years I could have zero benefit from the sale, that means I would have had a cost of housing near zero in 5 years (compared to rent x 12 x 5!).

Also, thanks for the CrossRail tip. We heard about it and to be honest, properties close to train stations are booming at the moment (or at least their advertised prices - not sure for how much they really sell!), so high that I don't think we can afford one where we really want to live. Reading is OK, so somewhere a couple miles from the station would be fine.

I guess it also makes a difference to say that we want to live in the property we want to buy, so unfortunately we can't go for something like a Buy to Let 1-bed flat next to the station



Yes, the costs / expenses associated to the buy and sell operations are something we keep in mind. The point here is we pay around £1300/mo in rent (big, nice house in good location) which in 5 years would amount to £78k if prices don't go up. It could also go down, too...

Keeping all these into perspective I think the fall from leaving the EU has to be very, very bad to eat out that ~£78k loss buffer. Not saying it can't happen, because that's why I'm here asking but I'm becoming a little bit more optimistic.

Thank you!

Are you buying cash, otherwise you will still be paying mortgage in which case it's not the total rent you would be saving but that less the interest on mortgage.

NotFromRoundHere

ukcarper wrote: »

Are you buying cash, otherwise you will still be paying mortgage in which case it's not the total rent you would be saving but that less the interest on mortgage.

You are right; I won't be buying cash, so the interest and how much of it I'll end up paying if I sell in 5 years is something to take into account.

Good point, thanks!

mayonnaise

Rinoa wrote: »

Reuters: London: Britain intends to become an independent member of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) when it leaves the European Union (EU), trade minister Liam Fox will say next week, according to a report in the Sunday Telegraph newspaper.
The newspaper, without citing its sources, said Fox would use a speech at the WTO on Tuesday to say Britain would seek to be an independent member of the body so that it could negotiate its own trade deals outside of the EU.
Being an independent member of the WTO would involve Britain leaving the EU’s customs union, the newspaper said, something the government has so far refused to confirm it intends to do.


http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-fox-idUKKCN11V0C7?il=0

Looks like he didn't.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/27/liam-fox-speech-hints-at-government-confusion-over-brexit

mayonnaise

Sadiq Khan pushes for post Brexit London work visas.

City Hall is working on proposals for a separate work permit system for London as the capital looks to carve out a bespoke deal on immigration in Brexit Britain.

Good. I like it.
A bespoke deal for cities that voted to remain might be the way to go.
The idea could be replicated for Liverpool, Manchester, Cambridge, Cardiff, while the swivel-eyed brexiteers in the countryside can enjoy their splendid isolation. A win-win all around.

http://news.sky.com/story/sadiq-khan-pushes-for-post-brexit-london-work-visas-10595471