If we vote for Brexit what happens

lisyloo

My only view point is that property right now is appalling value for money and the insane prices are largely as a result of huge scale government and BoE intervention and not as a result of natural free market economics.

Ian - I agree.
However with our population increasing and more single occupancy households and no really significant housebuilding on the horizon, then it's likely over the long term to stay high or go even higher.
I do sympathise but I think you need to get your head round that fact and deal with your options.
I don't like it either but it isn't going to change just because some people wish it to.


I haven't read the whole thread, but have your considered getting a lodger so you could get a nicer house/area?

padington

buglawton wrote: »

FYI that article's paywalled but by creating a free account at FT you can read this & a handful of FT articles per week.

Even better just search the title of any financial times article and Google gives a link to the free article every time, maybe not first hit but usually second or third.

Crashy_Time

glasgowdan wrote: »

I know the market. Put a note in your diary to check it yourself in 6 months.

Remember to pick up your sign if it does sell won`t you? :rotfl:

Crashy_Time

Grenage wrote: »

No, I said that I don't see any evidence of that in the long term, not a 10-year window. Average house prices have, over the last 70+ years, increased steadily.

Picking a 10-year window and saying that prices slump around the 2007/9 mark for a few years is anecdotal.

No, I said that over a long period there are corrections big enough to wipe out people who are over-leveraged if they buy at the wrong time, late 80`s being one example. Late buyers to this bubble will be in trouble if interest rates rise or the economy deteriorates, IMO.

lisyloo

Crashy_Time wrote: »

No, I said that over a long period there are corrections big enough to wipe out people who are over-leveraged if they buy at the wrong time, late 80`s being one example. Late buyers to this bubble will be in trouble if interest rates rise or the economy deteriorates, IMO.

I agree that this has happened in the past when we had the likes of Carol Voderman selling and northern rock 125% mortgages.
That is not the case now.
There are strict affordability tests in place now.


People will still die, get sick, get divorced, abandoned etc. we cannot do anything about that, but the vast majority will be protected by current strict lending criteria (if they can get a mortgage that is).
Buying a house with a 99% chance of it being fine is probably a better decision for most people than doing nothing.
In general - fortune favours the brave.


If you do buy at a high then long term it will be fine, short term you may be in negative equity but it is impossible for people to time this, so they should get on with their lives.

Grenage

Crashy_Time wrote: »

No, I said that over a long period there are corrections big enough to wipe out people who are over-leveraged if they buy at the wrong time, late 80`s being one example. Late buyers to this bubble will be in trouble if interest rates rise or the economy deteriorates, IMO.

Considering current base rates, and how quickly the government is likely to increase rates (unlikely to be any time soon - might even go down), I can't imagine that anyone who has recently taken out a mortgage will be in financial trouble.

By the time the rates increase, they'll have plenty of equity; even if prices slumped for a few years, it will only be for a few years.

You say that the bubble is about to burst, but I'd say there's never been a better time to buy a home. I'll check back in a few years, and we'll see how it's played out.

brit1234

MobileSaver wrote: »

Which emergency measures were used to prop up the housing market?
"

1. Massive slash in interest rates to 0.5% and now 0.25%
2. Billions in QE to lower mortgage costs.
3. Funding for lending to make mortgage costs even cheaper and encourage risky lending mainly focused on buy to let.
4. Help to buy for new build (20% deposit, 40% deposit London) to allow builders to charge far more for properties.
5. Help to buy allowing people to buy existing properties with 5% deposit getting round the MMR rules after the credit crunch.

That's why we have a housing bubble bigger than 2007 despite wages are lower. The reason for housing bubbles is cheap credit and irresponsible lending which includes foreign buyers accessing that cheap credit. Owner occupiers renting out their properties rather than selling them due to low mortgage costs restricting the supply further.

ukcarper

brit1234 wrote: »

1. Massive slash in interest rates to 0.5% and now 0.25%
2. Billions in QE to lower mortgage costs.
3. Funding for lending to make mortgage costs even cheaper and encourage risky lending mainly focused on buy to let.
4. Help to buy for new build (20% deposit, 40% deposit London) to allow builders to charge far more for properties.
5. Help to buy allowing people to buy existing properties with 5% deposit getting round the MMR rules after the credit crunch.

That's why we have a housing bubble bigger than 2007 despite wages are lower. The reason for housing bubbles is cheap credit and irresponsible lending which includes foreign buyers accessing that cheap credit. Owner occupiers renting out their properties rather than selling them due to low mortgage costs restricting the supply further.

The first three were to protect economy and the last 2 have not had a significant effect especially in London. How are prices in west London now and how big a fall in prices will be needed to get them back to where they were when you predicted 50% off, let alone 50% off that.

MobileSaver

brit1234 wrote: »

1. Massive slash in interest rates to 0.5% and now 0.25%
2. Billions in QE to lower mortgage costs.
3. Funding for lending to make mortgage costs even cheaper and encourage risky lending mainly focused on buy to let.
4. Help to buy for new build (20% deposit, 40% deposit London) to allow builders to charge far more for properties.
5. Help to buy allowing people to buy existing properties with 5% deposit getting round the MMR rules after the credit crunch.

As ukcarper pointed out the first three were general economic measures and as for the last two... Help To Buy only accounted for 2% of property transactions over the last 3 years so hardly propping up the market!

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

Jock, Bremainers refused to entertain the idea the UK will be comparatively MORE attractive an investor landscape thanks to Brexit and out newfound nimble, autonomous nature.

How?

read the history of nations such as India gaining independence from Britain that simply adopted all law as a holding position and then at leisure reviewed it POST independence

But we can't just keep everything the same and change at leisure, part of our leaving seems to involve a fundamental change to the status quo - that of free movement.

I'd be all for a leaving that takes everything as it currently stands; free movement, EU membership payments, etc, and we can drift away over the decades, but that's not going to happen.