If we vote for Brexit what happens

Thrugelmir

buglawton wrote: »

UK car production up 7% in July YoY, first time over 1m in a year for around 10 years if I heard the radio correctly.

Buy today pay tomorrow.......

chucknorris

Castle wrote: »

But at least they have a British manager; far better than those European managers such as Wenger, Mourinho, Klopp, Guardiola, Ranieri and Koeman.:)

If he does what he did at Everton I would be more than pleased.

prowla

mayonnaise wrote: »

"Although the FTSE 100 has boomed, that is largely because its component companies earn most of their revenue and profits outside the UK."

Isn't that a proof that the UK is well-placed in the global markets?

Thrugelmir

prowla wrote: »

Isn't that a proof that the UK is well-placed in the global markets?

If UK investors owned more of the issued shares then yes. Then dividends generated could be used to the benefit of the UK economy. Rather than being transferred out abroad.

System

Bloomberg Report this week - British house buyers dance with the devil.

"as long as the music is playing [in terms of liquidity], you've got to get up and dance"

david1951

AnotherJoe wrote: »

I'm not sure thats true, and no one said prices would not rise. Just that your ludicrously simplistic model where the pound dollar change directly relates to inflation was patently and provably wrong. This can be proven simply by cooking at a graph of dollar/pound vs inflation, or reflecting that in recent periods where the pound got stronger against the dollar, say by 5%, we didnt get deflation of 5%. There are numerous other factors at work. This ought to be blindingly obvious.

If you dont believe me, take it up with the BoE who say (in summary)

Using very rough rules of thumb, the BoE has traditionally estimated that the pass-through from exchange rate movements to UK import prices is roughly 60% to 90%, and the import intensity of the consumer price index (CPI) is about 30%.6 This generates an overall pass-through coefficient of around 20% to 30%.7 In other words, the 17% appreciation of sterling that has occurred since the spring of 2013 would reduce the level of the consumer price index by about 3 to 5%.

So, that was the Pound rising. In the opposite direction you'd expect it to work pretty much in reverse, 17% drop, inflation rises by 3 to 5%.Not 17% drop 17% inflation.And thats only for certain economic sectors, not the whole economy.
This by the way is from a long and complex paper which I've butchered to make that summary, but without doubt the end result is what I said, exchange rate change does not equal inflation / deflation.
As this talk has shown, this insight on the importance of “noting” is also critically important when analysing how exchange rate movements affect inflation and therefore monetary policy. Some of our most basic assumptions and priors do not do a particularly good job in explaining recent pass through in the UK. More specifically, sectors with a higher imported content do not systemically appear to be more sensitive to sterling’s movements. Sectors that are more tradable and face greater international competition show only limited evidence of greater sensitivity to sterling’s moves. And the extent of pass through from sterling’s movements to both CPI inflation as well as import prices has changed over time. This has created substantial challenges to predicting how recent exchange rate movements will affect inflation in the future.

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/2015/839.aspx

Well reasoned analysis? You realise this is the brexit thread. This has no place here.

buglawton

Maybe slightly off topic but that well thought out post was needed to refute an earlier preposterous post about inflation. That might explain why it drew 3 thanks.

buglawton

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Buy today pay tomorrow.......

Most are exported.

Now with the deflated £, upcoming months may show even stronger figures.

Thrugelmir

buglawton wrote: »

At this moment the £ buys just under 9 RMB which is 5% below the rate it's been for several periods in the last 2 years. So as far as Chinese imports go, no big change. If anything this is a correction to approximately where the £ should be.

China has been devaluing the RMB to maintain a competitive edge. Exporting deflation in the process. Which will create other problems globally.

setmefree2

The number of long-term migrants in Britain fell slightly to 327,000 in the year ending in March the Office for National Statistics said. But that still leaves the level close to a record.

The figure – calculated from the difference between the number of people arriving and those leaving – represents a decrease of 9,000 on the previous year, underlining the continued pressure on government ministers to curb freedom of movement following the EU referendum in June.

Nicola White at the ONS said:

Net migration remains at record levels although the recent trend is broadly flat. The influx of Romanians and Bulgarians has also reached a new high, although that’s off-set by falls in non-EU immigration and from other central and eastern European countries. Work remains the main reason for migration, followed by study which has seen a significant fall in the number of people coming to the UK for education.
It’s important to remember that these figures only go up to the end of March and do not cover the period following the UK’s vote to leave the European Union.

Total immigration was down 11,000 to 633,000 – still among the highest ever recorded levels – while emigration also slipped 2,000 to 306,000. Net migration of EU citizens in the UK fell by 4,000 to 180,000 in the period. Non-EU citizens counted for 190,000, down from 200,000 over the same period last year.

http://www.ft.com/fastft/2016/08/25/uk-long-term-migrant-numbers-fell-ahead-of-brexit-vote/