If we vote for Brexit what happens

Brock_and_Roll

peter_we wrote: »

Your OH's pension has stayed the same, as its mainly priced in Dollars (FTSE-100). Everything else has lost 15%, your wages, house, savings and goods.

You will see that when the 15% inflation hits in the next few months.

Bang on.


In a nutshell, the 15% Sterling depreciation is currently the only consequence of Brexit. Holders of Sterling have become 15% poorer (which for Joe Public makes a week in Spain more expensive) and will (in time) lead to inflation as most goods that we consume here in the UK are imported.


For the stock market, the assets of British large companies have just had a "15% off" sticker on them - so unsurprisingly global investors have piled in and the FTSE has risen.


.....but we are very much in the quiet before the storm. After the shock of the vote result, basically all key politicians in the EU and UK have naffed off on their summer holidays, no doubt building up their reserves for what are going to be very hard negotiations.


I expect there will be some very tough days (which the markets will react to) as both sides set out their opening positions. There will be days when it seems that no deal will be possible and obviously this will cause market shocks.

System

There is talk of hyperinflation in the late future. In order to combat it, interest rates may have to be increased. We live in a fake economy where everything is possible. Hyperinflation could take place or not. Who knows.

mayonnaise

lisyloo wrote: »

Stating the obvious but nothing definite has actually happened yet.
Until facts (tarrifs, movement, rules etc.) are known then people and businesses will be unable to make decisions so effectively nothing has changed, apart from some uncertainty/speculation and a lot of holding off making decisions.

This uncertainty and inability to make decisions is massively influencing capital spending decisions right now. The fallout from this will become clear from Q3-Q4 onwards.
In the mean time we can rejoice when DFS sales are keeping up and 8k summer jobs were created in July.

ess0two

mayonnaise wrote: »

Isn't that wonderful.
We bounced back from post-Brexit panic when we haven't even brexited yet.

Has'nt stopped you posting articles of impending disaster either,and as you state we haven't exited yet.
Pot,kettle,black.....

mayonnaise

ess0two wrote: »

Has'nt stopped you posting articles of impending disaster either,and as you state we haven't exited yet.
Pot,kettle,black.....

The thread is called "If we vote for Brexit what happens". I assumed this was the right thread to post about what happens after we vote for Brexit.
What happened until now was a collapsing pound, PMI indices through the floor and infrastructure investment falling off a cliff.
The effects will take time to filter through though. Stay tuned.
In the mean time, if you have anything useful to add, please do.

ess0two

mayonnaise wrote: »

The thread is called "If we vote for Brexit what happens". I assumed this was the right thread to post about what happens after we vote for Brexit.
What happened until now was a collapsing pound, PMI indices through the floor and infrastructure investment falling off a cliff.
The effects will take time to filter through though. Stay tuned.
In the mean time, if you have anything useful to add, please do.

Equally the OP gave evidence it aint all that bad?

buglawton

CLAPTON wrote: »

a very disrespectful post in view of the many dead during that period

The expression 'Phoney War' has passed into language and is used frequently by journalists commenting on politics. Nothing wrong with a history lesson either.
What about the expression 'to decimate'?

buglawton

Brock_and_Roll wrote: »

...
In a nutshell, the 15% Sterling depreciation is currently the only consequence of Brexit. Holders of Sterling have become 15% poorer (which for Joe Public makes a week in Spain more expensive) and will (in time) lead to inflation as most goods that we consume here in the UK are imported.

For the stock market, the assets of British large companies have just had a "15% off" sticker on them - so unsurprisingly global investors have piled in and the FTSE has risen.
.....

At this moment the £ buys just under 9 RMB which is 5% below the rate it's been for several periods in the last 2 years. So as far as Chinese imports go, no big change. If anything this is a correction to approximately where the £ should be.

AnotherJoe

peter_we wrote: »

Your OH's pension has stayed the same, as its mainly priced in Dollars (FTSE-100). Everything else has lost 15%, your wages, house, savings and goods.

You will see that when the 15% inflation hits in the next few months.

Piffle. Provably piffle at that since unless every single item you purchase is imported (which they arent) and every service you use is 100% imported (which it isnt) and unless 100% of the cost contribution to 100% of items sold consist of imported goods (which they arent) and unless manufacturers and sellers passed on 100% of increased costs (which they wont) then it must be well below 15%.

Lets revisit in 3 months time when it will show as being about 2%

Herzlos

Are we any closer to any sort of plan or idea about whats going to happen?