If we vote for Brexit what happens

Filo25

setmefree2 wrote: »

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/08/08/ftse-100-nears-14-month-high-and-oil-rallies-on-new-output-freez/

The ever lower interest rate outlook is very helpful for equities at present, hell if I had spare money myself at present I would be dumping it into defensive stocks, plus obviously overseas earnings are looking great in Sterling due to the devaluation since Brexit.

The real unknowns economically are what the new government's fiscal policy will look like, will it be a decisive break from austerity as indicated or a few soundbites and token policies, and obviously when Article 50 will be invoked and what we are looking for as a priority from a post Brexit EU deal.

The weaker the economy looks over the coming months the more the negotiating position is likely to lean towards Economy rather than Immigration as the priority.

Certainly the environment for a significant US trade deal doesn't look too favourable, with the US government looking increasingly hostile to any trade deals with anyone at present.

With regards to Article 50 being triggered, I think it would be phenomenally dangerous for parliament just to ignore the will of the people as expressed in the referendum, and I don't think it is likely to happen.

On the other hand its not impossible to envisage scenarios where we might end up having a second referendum on the subject (for instance the economy hits the skids in a significant way and polling indicates that as a result of this a clear majority would like to remain in the EU), in circumstances like that you could envisage the government "giving in to popular pressure" and granting a second referendum, possibly giving a different question this time between the proposed Brexit position (one of the Norway option/Swiss option or flat out leaving) and remaining in the EU.

I'm not saying that is a likely outcome but I don't think its impossible either.

TrickyTree83

There's not a cat in hell's chance of Jeremy Corbyn rallying the PLP to vote the way he wants. None.

The_Last_Username

mayonnaise wrote: »

BREXIT BETTING: Bookmakers have lost faith in Article 50 ever being triggered





http://uk.businessinsider.com/when-will-article-50-be-triggered-2016

Good news, I'm sure you all agree.

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

It is, yes - since these same bookmakers quoted odds of 3/1 on a leave result days before the referendum.


http://uk.businessinsider.com/brexit-betting-the-odds-have-moved-even-more-in-remains-favour-2016-6

So if the qoute you provide is equally accurate we can rely on the complete opposite.

gadgetmind

The_Last_Username wrote: »

So if the qoute you provide is equally accurate we can rely on the complete opposite.

You can't blame people for trying to cling to some last vestige of hope for a better future, one without the sword of Damocles that is Brexit threatening to drop at any moment.

gadgetmind

Filo25 wrote: »

if I had spare money myself at present I would be dumping it into defensive stocks, plus obviously overseas earnings are looking great in Sterling due to the devaluation since Brexit.

Yes, spot on. Any company not exposed to the UK economy is in a good place. The others ... not so much.

will it be a decisive break from austerity as indicated

Aka "tax and spend". I do hope not.

the negotiating position is likely to lean towards Economy rather than Immigration as the priority.

I hope so as attacking immigration and immigrants would sink us.

Shakethedisease

mayonnaise wrote: »

12 reasons not to panic about Brexit – and why we probably won't leave the EU after all

Good article, some great points being made.

I'm not sure. It might be politically very dangerous for both the Tories and Labour to go back on any Brexit.

( ignore the Scottish slant in this piece ).

2 :- UKIP have achieved their key goal and many wonder what the point of Ukip is post-Brexit. Any attempt to back out of Brexit however and that question would be answered load and clear. Just as the SNP brought the 45 per cent Yes vote into the fold, Ukip with the right leadership, would be able to get a large chunk of the 52 per cent. The current Tory majority was based on 36.9 per cent of the vote – after they managed to get Ukip supporters to vote Tory with the promise of a referendum.

UKIP in the next GE would wipe out the hopelessly divided Labour Party throughout the North of England and Midlands. With maybe a dozen Tory MP’s switching, the pro-Article 50 UKIP would be in government either as a minority, but possibly a majority.

3 :- The EU have experienced the pain of the Brexit vote once and they don’t want to go through it again. They know UKIP would fight the next General Election with a promise to enact Article 50. The EU would be fools to agree to potentially go through this all again and allow years and years of doubt on the future of the UK’s relationship with the EU and even by association years of doubt about the EU’s survival, which could under those circumstances become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

4 :- European attitudes are hardening towards the UK. If you vote to leave a political union (such as the UK), you can still trade, share a currency, rules and regulations etc through a trading union. But if you leave a trading union, then that trade is put at risk and needs to be renegotiated. Currently in the Council of Ministers, the UK, Germany and France between them can form a blocking majority and when the other two don’t agree, the UK is hugely influential. However, with the UK out, France and Germany can form a majority on their own.

5:- European nations are now looking to seize an economic opportunity. Sure they need to trade with the UK, but all trade deals the EU does are about protecting EU nations’ interests, not free trade. Germany and France in particular could see a major boom in their finance sectors simply by omitting financial passporting from any trade deal and humbling the city of London.

http://www.businessforscotland.co.uk/brexit-cant-stopped-scotlands-best-option/

System

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I'm not sure. It might be politically very dangerous for both the Tories and Labour to go back on any Brexit.

I think the opposite. If you ran the referendum again, it'd be remain. This needs to be pushed through knowing the majority now don't want it.

Rinoa

Joeskeppi wrote: »

I think the opposite. If you ran the referendum again, it'd be remain. This needs to be pushed through knowing the majority now don't want it.

The last YoyGov poll only a few days ago still had more people supporting leave.

buglawton

Filo25 wrote: »

The ever lower interest rate outlook is very helpful for equities at present, hell if I had spare money myself at present I would be dumping it into defensive stocks, plus obviously overseas earnings are looking great in Sterling due to the devaluation since Brexit.

The real unknowns economically are what the new government's fiscal policy will look like, will it be a decisive break from austerity as indicated or a few soundbites and token policies, and obviously when Article 50 will be invoked and what we are looking for as a priority from a post Brexit EU deal.

The weaker the economy looks over the coming months the more the negotiating position is likely to lean towards Economy rather than Immigration as the priority.

Certainly the environment for a significant US trade deal doesn't look too favourable, with the US government looking increasingly hostile to any trade deals with anyone at present.

With regards to Article 50 being triggered, I think it would be phenomenally dangerous for parliament just to ignore the will of the people as expressed in the referendum, and I don't think it is likely to happen.

On the other hand its not impossible to envisage scenarios where we might end up having a second referendum on the subject (for instance the economy hits the skids in a significant way and polling indicates that as a result of this a clear majority would like to remain in the EU), in circumstances like that you could envisage the government "giving in to popular pressure" and granting a second referendum, possibly giving a different question this time between the proposed Brexit position (one of the Norway option/Swiss option or flat out leaving) and remaining in the EU.

I'm not saying that is a likely outcome but I don't think its impossible either.

The offer of another referendum would come bundled with a general election.

Spidernick

mayonnaise wrote: »

BREXIT BETTING: Bookmakers have lost faith in Article 50 ever being triggered





http://uk.businessinsider.com/when-will-article-50-be-triggered-2016

Hmm, Bookmakers - Leicester City FC springs to mind!