If we vote for Brexit what happens

setmefree2

This story about the deprived north, however, will have lasting and profoundly misleading consequences for the political landscape, if we don’t think more deeply about it.
The prevailing assumption is that the vote was one in the eye for metropolitan elites, and that the white working classes, the disenfranchised and unheeded, the voters hidden on estates, had finally given a message to the Westminster bubble that knew nothing and cared less about their concerns. In fact, most leave voters were in the south: the south-east, south-west – indeed the entire south apart from London voted leave.
They did so by slightly smaller margins – though it is interesting to note that Wales, apparently the hotbed of a self-sabotaging leave movement, driven by a deprivation that only the EU was interested in alleviating, voted out by a smaller margin than the south-west. Yet southerners voted in greater numbers; their votes were decisive. Furthermore, most leave voters are middle class, or at least were of the generation whose housing and pension windfalls put them squarely in the category of wealth.
Analysing voting data by education – where the more degrees you had, the more likely you were to want to remain – is misleading: it was much less common, before Tony Blair’s 1999 pledge to provide tertiary education for 50% of the nation, to go to university, and a degree was by no means a prerequisite for membership of the middle classes.

The more enlightening figures are those that plot voting against housing; yes, social and council tenants voted leave, but so did those who owned their houses outright, the people we might describe as society’s winners. By housing type, the only groups where remain prevailed were private renters and people with mortgages.
In other words, the very most we can say is that leave had some popularity with the disaffected and the disenfranchised; but it was not limited to that group, and the people who swung the vote were affluent, older southerners.

For every one person who voted leave because the global rat race had left them behind, there was more than one person pretty well served by the economy, who voted leave because they believed the line about sovereignty, or because they were still huffy about the European directive on clean beaches, or because they simply associated the EU with faceless change and preferred things to stay the same. The picture cannot be drawn in simple, binary lines between rich and poor.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/aug/07/north-poor-brexit-myths

setmefree2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Can't be done without a vote in Parliament and is currently subject to legal action anyway.

Jeremy Corbyn has said Brexit means Brexit....

Jeremy Corbyn rules out second referendum on Brexit

J C has insisted that Labour will not stand in the way of Brexit

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=71111715

So a vote in the HoP won't be an issue

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

setmefree2 wrote: »

Jeremy Corbyn has said Brexit means Brexit....

Corbyn has lost a vote of no confidence and can no longer control the MP's in his party.

They'll vote against him if they need to.

setmefree2

UK consumers keep spending despite Brexit vote shock

Survey shows spending rose sharply in July helped by good weather

Britain’s vote to leave the EU has had little immediate impact on people’s spending habits, according to new figures that suggest more money was splashed out on clothes, meals out and day trips in July.
Consumer spending picked up in July as the warm weather provided an incentive to eat out and buy new summer clothes, figures from Visa showed, contrasting with signs of a drop in business activity following the June vote to leave the EU.

The hotels, restaurants and bars sector saw the steepest year-on-year rise in spending, at 8.9%, continuing a trend of people spending on experiences over things. The amount spent on recreation and culture, which includes trips to the cinema and theme parks, rose by 5.2%. Spending on clothing and footwear rebounded from a fall in June to be up 3.9% on the year in July

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/aug/08/uk-consumers-keep-spending-despite-brexit-vote-shock

setmefree2

FTSE 100 nears 14-month high

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/08/08/ftse-100-nears-14-month-high-and-oil-rallies-on-new-output-freez/

CLAPTON

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Well for one thing we're just about to get into a European election cycle and the chances of getting a favourable deal are reduced if European politicians have to be seen to talk tough in order to please their domestic voters.

Latest polling data suggests voters in most key EU countries do not want to see the UK get any special treatment.

And then of course there's the election here in 2020. So there's no chance May will want to go into that in the middle of a recession brought on by leaving the Single Market in 2019.

Not to mention most MP's and Lords are against leaving anyway so getting a deal through Parliament here might be May's biggest challenge.... Actually scratch that, just getting a vote to proceed with Article 50 might be an equally big challenge.

Anyone who thought leaving was going to be quick or easy is badly mistaken.

27 countries in the EU who all have a say: madness to even try to anticipate their electoral politics.
the sooner its done the better.

mayonnaise

12 reasons not to panic about Brexit – and why we probably won't leave the EU after all

Good article, some great points being made.

Every decision to change the order of things in a democracy is open to challenge. From Edmund Burke to Margaret Thatcher, the doctrine of parliamentary representative democracy has reigned supreme over plebiscitory populism.

The idea of ‘one vote, one time’ forever belongs in the Robert Mugabe political playbook, not evolutionary British flexible constitutionalism.

More:
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-wont-happen-eu-referendum-european-union-12-reasons-not-to-panic-leave-remain-a7178611.html

setmefree2

mayonnaise wrote: »

12 reasons not to panic about Brexit – and why we probably won't leave the EU after all

You and Hamish really are in denial.

setmefree2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Corbyn has lost a vote of no confidence and can no longer control the MP's in his party.

They'll vote against him if they need to.

The current working Tory majority is 17, the DUP compaigned to Brexit - another 8 - plus UKIP =1, plus at least 40 MPs back Corbyn - so really you are clutching at straws.

Plus, If the Tories called an election they probably would get a majority of about 90.

mayonnaise

BREXIT BETTING: Bookmakers have lost faith in Article 50 ever being triggered

Bookmakers have shortened their odds that Article 50 — the two-year notice period the must give to officially leave the EU — will never be triggered.

Sky Bet currently has 6/4 odds on Article 50 happening in "2018 or later or not at all," the favourite option in its Brexit betting market.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/when-will-article-50-be-triggered-2016

Good news, I'm sure you all agree.