If we vote for Brexit what happens

TrickyTree83

gadgetmind wrote: »

Businesses with a heavy UK or EU exposure are in for a rough ride, and these are some of our largest private sector employers.

Only due to uncertainty.

There is no knowledge over whether we will retain single market membership or freedom of movement in some form.

If we did retain those then in terms of business, where's the issue? There would be little that changes for these businesses apart from their employees getting blue passports possibly?

gadgetmind

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Only due to uncertainty.

Uncertainly is the enemy of medium/long term business planning.

There is no knowledge over whether we will retain single market membership or freedom of movement in some form.

And by the time we do know, a lot of damage will already have been done.

If we did retain those then in terms of business, where's the issue?

Because businesses (and workers) have to react based on what they know today. Hoping for a good outcome, and then getting blind-sided and perhaps destroyed by a bad one, doesn't make any sense, so you hope for the best but plan for the worst. This means pulling in your horns regards investment, shutting down anything that's borderline profitable to concentrate on the core business, and protecting yourself from potential loss of the key EU freedoms by ramping down in the UK and ramping up elsewhere in the world, particularly in other EU countries.

The exact reaction of any given business will obviously vary depending on their circumstances, but I think you get the general idea.

TrickyTree83

gadgetmind wrote: »

Uncertainly is the enemy of medium/long term business planning.



And by the time we do know, a lot of damage will already have been done.



Because businesses (and workers) have to react based on what they know today. Hoping for a good outcome, and then getting blind-sided and perhaps destroyed by a bad one, doesn't make any sense, so you hope for the best but plan for the worst. This means pulling in your horns regards investment, shutting down anything that's borderline profitable to concentrate on the core business, and protecting yourself from potential loss of the key EU freedoms by ramping down in the UK and ramping up elsewhere in the world, particularly in other EU countries.

The exact reaction of any given business will obviously vary depending on their circumstances, but I think you get the general idea.

So in fact you agree with what I've been saying all along? Because I agree with all of that. It's perfectly sensible but none of it is due to leaving the EU as that hasn't happened.

That the current circumstances are only due to uncertainty.

We therefore are unable to predict an uncertain outcome, especially using one data point from different sources.

If we were able to predict it business wouldn't be so cautious and the term uncertainty wouldn't apply.

Crashy_Time

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-eurozone-banks-italy-idUKKCN10E1RK

Crashy_Time

ukcarper wrote: »

But where are they now. Obviously it is best to buy when prices are low not at the peak but timing that is almost impossible.

Not hard to see we are at peak bubble now though is it?

sheff6107

Deputy BoE governor Ben Broadbent:

Deputy governor says any fan chart on house price would be as wide as any other fan chart it produces (ie, it doesn’t really know).

But the central case is that house prices experience a “small decline” next year, but then pick up again as average wages rise.

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Not hard to see we are at peak bubble now though is it?

Unless peak bubble is 2018. Or 2019. Or 2020.

ukcarper

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Not hard to see we are at peak bubble now though is it?

But you've been saying that for years.

jimbog

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Not hard to see we are at peak bubble now though is it?

Why did you sell in 1998 then?:huh:

Crashy_Time

jimbog wrote: »

Why did you sell in 1998 then?:huh:

Not aware of doing that, you must be thinking of someone else?

Crashy_Time

http://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/mortgages/2016/08/just-five-big-mortgage-lenders-commit-to-cutting-their-svr-after-base-rate-drop?_ga=1.36639268.543644067.1388891385