If we vote for Brexit what happens

TrickyTree83

gfplux wrote: »

But surely most Brexiteers will want a hard border. That was one of the basic reasons to vote out.

I can't speak for most leave voters, just myself. And as I pointed out previously I'm closer to remain than I am the views of UKIP. An EEA/EFTA deal would be fine with me. Then people point out free movement needs to be curbed, so I reference something the German CBI once said and apparently it's for me to defend it's technicalities?

TrickyTree83

gfplux wrote: »

Well side stepped. You offered the point as if there was going to be a change.

I'd wager the German CBI equivalent has quite a good grasp on such things. Therefore if they suggest it, I would assume it's an option that could be explored.

mayonnaise

Brexit barometer: economic mood darkens

Housing market : Signal for growth : Poor

Investment intentions : Signal for growth : Poor

Job ads : Signal for growth : Neutral/Poor

Business confidence : Signal for growth : Worrying

Consumer confidence : Signal for growth : Poor

John Lewis sales : Signal for growth : Neutral

Footfall : Signal for growth : Poor

https://next.ft.com/content/b95af98a-4e5e-11e6-88c5-db83e98a590a

Rinoa

BobQ wrote: »

They did not. THat was their predication in March based on 2015 outcome for what would happen on current assumptions (ie in the EU) in 2016, 2017. The IMF made a similar forecast and now have reduced it because of Brexit.

With respect you werre commenting on a figure 1.3% just issued by IMF which is their forecast now for growth in 2017. As you said in 6618



I do not believe you can make a meaningful forecast based on 3 weeks of current market activity.

Looks like I'm not alone:

CLAPTON

It does seem that the IMF (of which I hold little regard but I know many worship at their every utterance) seems to forecast a higher 2017 GDP growth for the UK that for the rest of the EU.

gfplux

A very interesting article. I think most people will find it balanced.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/21/brexit-untangling-uk-industry-europe-german-manufacturing-single-market-bavaria


What I found surprising was this statement within the article.

"Free movement also matters to Bavarian industry because the region has a shortage of skilled labour. With 37,000 empty Bavarian apprenticeship posts, one of the few silver linings that many German business leaders see in Britain’s vote to leave is that it may drive eastern European talent to Germany that has previously opted for the UK."

Two parts
37,000 empty apprentiships in Bavaria alone. Is this a misprint! Does anyone know how it compares with the U.K.
And
Perhaps good news for the Brexiteers the possibility that workers from the east will go to Germany rather than the UK.

It has been reported elsewhere that Germany is very short of labour and is one of the reasons Merkel is keen to encourage inward immigration.

indianabones

Well prices are going down in Birmingham. A lot quicker than in the past.

Some houses coming back on the market.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-54240598.html
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-59969567.html
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-59995349.html

Generali

Germany already has very high immigration:

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2016/07/PE16_246_12421.html;jsessionid=49CB6BB6255D6C6B984446FAC63B50B9.cae1

WIESBADEN – In 2015, immigration to Germany was higher than ever before; this is reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) on the basis of provisional results. In the reference year, a total 2,137,000 people immigrated to Germany. This was an increase of 672,000 arrivals, or +46%, on 2014. In 2015, a total of 998,000 people departed from Germany, 83,000 (+9%) more than in the previous year. The resulting net immigration of 1,139,000 people, the balance of arrivals and departures across Germany's borders, is the highest in the history of the Federal Republic.

That's about 3.5x the UK's net migration rate.

CLAPTON

gfplux wrote: »

A very interesting article. I think most people will find it balanced.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/21/brexit-untangling-uk-industry-europe-german-manufacturing-single-market-bavaria


What I found surprising was this statement within the article.

"Free movement also matters to Bavarian industry because the region has a shortage of skilled labour. With 37,000 empty Bavarian apprenticeship posts, one of the few silver linings that many German business leaders see in Britain’s vote to leave is that it may drive eastern European talent to Germany that has previously opted for the UK."

Two parts
37,000 empty apprentiships in Bavaria alone. Is this a misprint! Does anyone know how it compares with the U.K.
And
Perhaps good news for the Brexiteers the possibility that workers from the east will go to Germany rather than the UK.

It has been reported elsewhere that Germany is very short of labour and is one of the reasons Merkel is keen to encourage inward immigration.

nothing 'balanced' about the article:
the facts are either true or false and it has no bearing on the UK.

TrickyTree83

gfplux wrote: »

A very interesting article. I think most people will find it balanced.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/21/brexit-untangling-uk-industry-europe-german-manufacturing-single-market-bavaria


What I found surprising was this statement within the article.

"Free movement also matters to Bavarian industry because the region has a shortage of skilled labour. With 37,000 empty Bavarian apprenticeship posts, one of the few silver linings that many German business leaders see in Britain’s vote to leave is that it may drive eastern European talent to Germany that has previously opted for the UK."

Two parts
37,000 empty apprentiships in Bavaria alone. Is this a misprint! Does anyone know how it compares with the U.K.
And
Perhaps good news for the Brexiteers the possibility that workers from the east will go to Germany rather than the UK.

It has been reported elsewhere that Germany is very short of labour and is one of the reasons Merkel is keen to encourage inward immigration.

David Davis does have a point in that article which is at odds with the statements from the German manufacturer. There will be someone else somewhere in the rest of the world that makes complex dashboards to the same standard you would think, and if there isn't well then there's a business opportunity for someone in the developing world or even the UK to supply the UK market. That is a consequence of globalism, the tangled supply chain web he talks of is actually remarkably fluid (I develop statistical analysis software on supply chains as a job).