If we vote for Brexit what happens

david1951

Crashy_Time wrote: »

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/comment/article-3699739/Osborne-house-price-addiction-worse-Hammond-stop-it.html


The "Price Police" are all over the comments of course, but a sensible article nonetheless. Brexit is perfect cover to let UK property pop, letting banks lend more at safer multiples. Bloomberg yesterday had some discussion where they seemed to conclude that low rates for too long and PTB interference in markets have led to political effects like Trump and Brexit (which are bad results for "elites") Watch them try to tweak rates up in the near future.

I wouldn't mind an interest rate rise, but how would that reduce house prices (out of interest)?

Crashy_Time

david1951 wrote: »

I wouldn't mind an interest rate rise, but how would that reduce house prices (out of interest)?

First you have to ask yourself why they cut interest rates in the first place.

StevieJ

Forecasters at LMC Automotive in a report last week said GM was the most likely automaker to cease production in Britain if costs rise at its plants in England.
LMC said the shuttering of the Ellesmere Port plant would likely happen in 2021 when the new version of the Vauxhall Astra is planned. The Astra has been built there for 37 years.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/opel-ceo-says-brexit-not-120314014.html

david1951

Crashy_Time wrote: »

First you have to ask yourself why they cut interest rates in the first place.

Because prior to 2008 the banks were lending money to people like my friend Steve, who should never have been allowed to buy a bicycle on credit, let alone a house.

setmefree2

Generali wrote: »

We've apparently got a referendum coming up on gay marriage in Aus and TBH I'm dreading it. I can think of no better way to foment hatred against gay people.

Agree. I don't think that should be a referendum issue.

Generali wrote: »

In a representative Parliamentary system we vote for people to represent us and make decisions. If you stand under that system and aren't prepared to make a decision you're a bottler and should be kicked out.

I do think John Major and his cabinet were wrong to take the UK into the EU without a referendum. I also think it was wrong that he tried to take us into the Euro without a referendum (thank god that failed). I actually think John Major owes this country an apology (well that's imho).

StevieJ

setmefree2 wrote: »

Agree. I don't think that should be a referendum issue.



I do think John Major and his cabinet were wrong to take the UK into the EU without a referendum. I also think it was wrong that he tried to take us into the Euro without a referendum (thank god that failed). I actually think John Major owes this country an apology (well that's imho).

The top slot is reserved for Major who negotiated an opt out from the single currency during the Maastricht treaty negotiations in 1991. This has meant that Britain and Denmark, which negotiated a similar opt out, are the only two members of the 27-strong EU with a legal right to stay outside the euro. Even Sweden, which rejected the euro in a referendum, is technically bound to sign up.
Major is a modest chap. So when Sir David Frost asked him on Al Jazeera English last week why he had kept Britain out of the single currency, the former prime minister simply listed three reasons:

We were very concerned that there wouldn't be convergence, by which piece of jargon we meant that the southern European states wouldn't be able to compete with Germany within a single currency on a level basis. Of course in 1991 Germany was still unifying; but we looked forward to when she'd have a much more powerful economy and ask ourselves whether the southern states would compete. We didn't think so, and we thought that would be chaotic.
The second reason was that we thought having a unification of monetary policy without a unification of fiscal policy would be likely to end in difficulties. We thought countries wouldn't control their deficits in essence and that's exactly what happened. We tried to cover that – a British suggestion by proposing in the Maastricht Treaty that no country should have a fiscal deficit above 3% of GDP. That was agreed, but alas it wasn't kept to. Germany broke that, France broke that everybody else broke it and then you got huge debt beginning to build up.
The real crisis period where this occurred was between 1999 when the Euro started. It actually started in the wrong circumstances because the pre-conditions we had [agreed] at Maastricht weren't met. But between 1997 and 2007 public deficits swelled, public debts swelled. Private debts swelled there was no regulation to control it. And the governments in power then have passed a very bleak legacy onto their successors.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/wintour-and-watt/2011/nov/24/john-major-davidcameron

setmefree2

The Economists for Brexit Group has called on Theresa May to unilaterally abolish tariffs and embrace free trade without striking time-consuming deals, treaties and agreements. “Unilateral liberalisation would be the quickest and easiest policy reform to adopt, and it would pay dividends quickly. The advantages to UK exporters [in lower prices and the possibility to attract investment] would be considerable,” Ikenson said.
It would also get round the need for more negotiators.

http://www.cityam.com/245875/brexit-make-britains-eu-retreat-treat-trade-deals

Thoughts?

setmefree2

StevieJ wrote: »

T

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/wintour-and-watt/2011/nov/24/john-major-davidcameron

But he did try to take us into the Euro without a referendum - just because he failed doesn't excuse him in my eyes.

setmefree2

Economists For Brexit Link

http://www.economistsforbrexit.co.uk/

http://www.economistsforbrexit.co.uk/a-vote-for-brexit

Crashy_Time

david1951 wrote: »

Because prior to 2008 the banks were lending money to people like my friend Steve, who should never have been allowed to buy a bicycle on credit, let alone a house.

So would Steve find it easier to pay his massive mortgage at 0.5% base or 6%, and are the class of investors like Steve going to be bailed out again or left to take the consequences of their actions?