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If we vote for Brexit what happens
Comments
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We haven't left the EU, how can the prediction be wrong when it has not happened yet?0
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TrickyTree83 wrote: »How can they possibly know the outcome of negotiations though?
The IMF downgrading the risk of their very own armageddon scenario is an early indication they they believe it is becoming less likely. The BoE is also saying the same.
They produced forecasts based on two scenarios: 1. the UK negotiates a deal like Norway's 2. the UK trades under WTO rules.0 -
They produced forecasts based on two scenarios: 1. the UK negotiates a deal like Norway's 2. the UK trades under WTO rules.
Assuming no trade deals were struck with other areas on the planet, which is totally justifiable since how could they possibly know that.
We're aiming to have 12 seperate deals set up alongside whatever we get from the negotiations with the EU.
It isn't as simple as they've forecast, that much is clear right now.0 -
The point is this is a further example of 'experts' saying one thing before Brexit, and then having to backtrack when their predictions turn out way off the mark.
Did the IMF predict GDP for a period that the UK Government hasn't made a release for yet and got it wrong?
Seems a bit mad in your world Rinoa.
In my world someone gets something wrong once they have actually got it wrong.0 -
Did the IMF predict GDP for a period that the UK Government hasn't made a release for yet and got it wrong?
Seems a bit mad in your world Rinoa.
In my world someone gets something wrong once they have actually got it wrong.
Well, they've clearly got the initial impact wrong, who's to say the rest of their predictions aren't also incorrect.
I note the BoE, contrary to their earlier forecasts, see "no sign of a sharp Brexit hit yet" Of course they still maintain the pain will come later, but they have acknowledged the initial post brexit signs are not as bad as they had feared.If I don't reply to your post,
you're probably on my ignore list.0 -
Well, they've clearly got the initial impact wrong, who's to say the rest of their predictions aren't also incorrect.
Did they? GDP figures are normally produced quarterly so it seems a bit early to pronounce. What exactly did the IMF get wrong do you think?
From what I see of their predictions I think the IMF is wrong on the upside. I'm a mere expert though so I would be interested in the viewpoint of the more talented amateur.I note the BoE, contrary to their earlier forecasts, see "no sign of a sharp Brexit hit yet" Of course they still maintain the pain will come later, but they have acknowledged the initial post brexit signs are not as bad as they had feared.
Well of course the UK remains part of the EU so there hasn't been a Brexit yet so no Brexit hit. As we have no clue what the Brexit plan is it's pretty hard to make a prediction as to what the impact will be.
Let's discuss the plan when there is one.0 -
Well, Mrs May is out visiting Frau Merkel today.
It won't harm Merkel's future election credentials in Germany if she is seen in a pivotal role in the future negotiations.
I for one am happier that it is May out there, than David Cameron.0 -
He may have misspoken about Ireland but it will be a tricky problem.
When we are out of the EU we Britain will have a LAND border with the EU between Northern Ireland and the Republic.
As I understand it this border of 499km is presently VERY porous. After leaving the EU (AEU) this will have to become much, much tighter.
That will be very costly and might upset a lot of people's way of life who have lived on that border.
Just to repeat a LAND BORDER 499km or 311 miles.
We have had free movement in Ireland & Northern Ireland since 1922 - long before we joined the EU. As long as the ports and airports into main land UK are checked - I don't see why you would think this can't continue.0 -
Did they?
Yes. They said ftse would fall to 4900, but instead it reached an 11 month high.
They said sterling would fall 20% to around $1.10. It fell 6% from when that forecast was made to $1.32
Everything that can be measured thus far has proved your experts wrong.If I don't reply to your post,
you're probably on my ignore list.0
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