If we vote for Brexit what happens

mrginge

Kohoutek wrote: »

Don't you think that it's a little premature to say everything will be rosy before we've even formally decided to leave the EU, let alone actually left?

I think the experts were making predictions based on the scenario where the UK actually leaves the EU.

Are you suggesting that these experts failed to factor in a (minimum) two year exit process into their calculations?

mrginge

Generali wrote: »

Maybe things will go on to be amazing from here, maybe not. Nobody knows and it seems to me to be an odd decision to make to leave the EU when you have no idea of what you are going to move on to.

well yes that might be the sensible way to do it, but its not really that practical.
Firstly, how would you come up with a mode that was credible without going through a negotiation process?
Secondly, if the options are then status quo or move to X model, what voice do the people who want neither option have?
Thirdly, why would a govt who didn't want to have a referendum in the first place waste time and effort devising and promoting alternative models that would just make more people vote against their position?

The whole process was flawed right from the start, but it was purposely flawed in that way to try and avoid a particular outcome. The fact that the 'wrong' result was delivered is a failing of the Tories not the people who had to make judgements on the information they were given.

The sooner we move on from constantly analysing which groups voted which way the better.

Generali

mrginge wrote: »

well yes that might be the sensible way to do it, but its not really that practical.
Firstly, how would you come up with a mode that was credible without going through a negotiation process?
Secondly, if the options are then status quo or move to X model, what voice do the people who want neither option have?
Thirdly, why would a govt who didn't want to have a referendum in the first place waste time and effort devising and promoting alternative models that would just make more people vote against their position?

Perhaps the people that were suggesting that the UK move from a status quo that saw the UK become one of the richest countries in the world to another model could have taken the time to come up with a vague plan.

mrginge wrote: »

The whole process was flawed right from the start, but it was purposely flawed in that way to try and avoid a particular outcome. The fact that the 'wrong' result was delivered is a failing of the Tories not the people who had to make judgements on the information they were given.

Yet the majority still managed to vote for this apparently deliberately flawed outcome.

The whole thing is ridiculous really. The majority of Britons thought it was a good idea to tear up the economic model that has made the UK one of the richest countries in the world with absolutely no idea what comes next. I would say that the whole thing was risible but the fact that GDP and health outcomes are so closely linked makes this not a laughing matter.

mrginge wrote: »

The sooner we move on from constantly analysing which groups voted which way the better.

I like psephology.

Generali

If anyone's interested, despite a failed coup, GBP/TRY is still lower than it was before Brexit!

Conrad

Kohoutek wrote: »

Don't you think that it's a little premature to say everything will be rosy before we've even formally decided to leave the EU, let alone actually left?

I think the experts were making predictions based on the scenario where the UK actually leaves the EU.

Experts that did not take account of the fact well assemble a load of free trade deals with growing parts of the globe, that assumed we'd for some odd reason trade less with the EU, that forgot we hold several aces when negotiating with the EU, that didn't allow for the fact were even safer now compared with the EU and US from an investors view, that the BOE would not pull any of its levers, that we would not reduce corporation taxes.

Honestly die hard Remainers coming accross hysterical, and almost like people being encouraged to leave a mind bending cult

Generali

Conrad wrote: »

Experts that did not take account of the fact well assemble a load of free trade deals with growing parts of the globe, that assumed we'd for some odd reason trade less with the EU, that forgot we hold several aces when negotiating with the EU, that didn't allow for the fact were even safer now compared with the EU and US from an investors view, that the BOE would not pull any of its levers, that we would not reduce corporation taxes.

You seem very certain that as a rank amateur you have better predictive powers than the experts you dismiss so easily.

Curse those experts. Know nothing big mouths are the way forwards.

wotsthat

As a victory the IMF saying Brexit will be less bad seems; I don't know; hollow?

TrickyTree83

Kohoutek wrote: »

Don't you think that it's a little premature to say everything will be rosy before we've even formally decided to leave the EU, let alone actually left?

I think the experts were making predictions based on the scenario where the UK actually leaves the EU.

How can they possibly know the outcome of negotiations though?

The IMF downgrading the risk of their very own armageddon scenario is an early indication they they believe it is becoming less likely. The BoE is also saying the same.

CLAPTON

Generali wrote: »

If anyone's interested, despite a failed coup, GBP/TRY is still lower than it was before Brexit!

which presumably shows that the markets prefer ruthless autocratic near dictatorships rather than democracies : a bit like some people on this board.

Rinoa

wotsthat wrote: »

As a victory the IMF saying Brexit will be less bad seems; I don't know; hollow?

The point is this is a further example of 'experts' saying one thing before Brexit, and then having to backtrack when their predictions turn out way off the mark.