If we vote for Brexit what happens

mrginge

Kohoutek wrote: »

So you're assuming all the negotiations / bureaucracy to implement Brexit will be over in 5 years time and Brexit won't have any significant economic impact on the UK?

Dream on. The recent past is not a guide to the future.

I refer the honourable member to the answer thrugelmir gave earlier.

Kohoutek

Thrugelmir wrote: »

I found the statement perfectly legible. Is English your first language?

I found it legible too - after all, it was written down in a typed article.

ukcarper

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Not quite what I`m saying. I am saying that many parts of the country have a long way to fall as Brexit and other EZ problems play out.

No what you should say is you are hoping that many parts of the country are going to fall a long way so you can justify renting all those years. Prices could well fall but I'd stick my neck out and say in the south east they won't fall the 70% they would need to fall to get back to 1999 prices.

Rinoa

And now those financial geniuses at the IMF have changed their tone on Brexit. It's not going to be as bad after all. :rotfl:

Given the grim protestations of the IMF prior to Brexit some might be surprised to see the forecaster’s view on the UK economy post the referendum.
Back then the IMF boss Christine Lagarde had Chancellor George Osborne at her side. His “Remain” message was very clear and Mrs Lagarde duly warned an exit would be “pretty bad to very, very bad.”
But today the tone seems to have changed.
Here’s the bad news. The IMF has downgraded its growth forecasts for the UK economy by nearly a percentage point for 2017 as well as shaving off a less severe 0.2 per cent for this year. The downgrade was the largest for any advanced economy and the organisation cut its forecast for global growth too, this year and next, but not by much. Brexit, it said, had thrown a “spanner in the works” for plans to slightly upgrade the global forecast thanks to a pick up in activity in China, Brazil and Russia.
But crucially, rather than the doom and gloom scenario some had been predicting, there was a hint of good news.
The IMF now says it’s working on a “benign” assumption for the UK economy which sees a “gradual reduction in uncertainty going forward”. The main reason for this seems to be that the financial markets — while shocked at first by Brexit — have since calmed down and any panic has been contained.
So, the IMF now believes the UK will manage to reach an agreement with Europe and the political fallout will be limited.
Of course, as with all economic predictions, the IMF adds a healthy dollop of caveats.
Notably, its “benign” outlook “may fail to materialise and….more negative outcomes are a distinct possibility.”
But the most extreme of those negative outcomes — the IMF’s so-called “severe” forecast where the UK ends up in recession, has become “less likely”.

http://blogs.channel4.com/siobhan-kennedy/benign-brexit-forecast-imf/1236

mrginge

That's right. The experts at the IMF predict a perfectly reasonable 1.3% growth in 2017. No recession in sight...

Strange that, still I guess we have to just accept it since as we all know, we must 'listen to the experts' (copyright David Cameron 2016)

Conrad

Rinoa, BBC news channel at 7.30 surpassed themselves when the presenter tried putting a negative spin on the end of every positive given by thier financial guest who was at pains to point out we will still grow and faster than Germany and the second highest in the G7

This is miles better than Remain suggested and this damned presenter kept saying "so people should still prepare for pain then"

She said it also when the interview concluded just to make sure she got accross her project fear agenda

This is what we've been up against all along

Reuters just said Kerry says informal US trade talks can begin before Brexit

What happened to project fears back of the queue?

BobQ

mrginge wrote: »

That's right. The experts at the IMF predict a perfectly reasonable 1.3% growth in 2017. No recession in sight...

Strange that, still I guess we have to just accept it since as we all know, we must 'listen to the experts' (copyright David Cameron 2016)

So last month the could not be trusted and now they are above reproach? :)

1.3% is less than we were expecting a couple of months ago but at least it is positive.

Rinoa

BobQ wrote: »

So last month the could not be trusted and now they are above reproach? :)

1.3% is less than we were expecting a couple of months ago but at least it is positive.

The point is all the post-brexit predictions of the 'experts' - including many on here, are looking embarrassingly incorrect.

mrginge

BobQ wrote: »

So last month the could not be trusted and now they are above reproach? :)

1.3% is less than we were expecting a couple of months ago but at least it is positive.

Ok I am being a bit facetious.
The point being made is that pre-brexit all predictions by experts were gospel. That was the mantra from remain.
The response to that from leave was that these experts do not always get things right and in some cases get it very wrong.

Today we have updated forecasts which demonstrate that pre-brexit predictions should definitely not be taken as gospel.

It is accepted that 1.3% is not 2.2% and no-one is expecting there to be no reduction over the short and possibly medium term. But 1.3% growth is a hell of a long way from the economic meltdown that was thrown around.
If the news continues to be as 'less-negative' (the word positive being banned from brexit discussion) then some people might start to think that these overblown estimates were actually lies. Not me though because I know that only the leave side were liars. Yeah right.

As I pointed out a few posts back, the general man in the street will neither notice nor care about 0.9% less growth.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Rinoa wrote: »

The point is all the post-brexit predictions of the 'experts' - including many on here, are looking embarrassingly incorrect.

We haven't even started to Brexit yet.

It takes a particularly special kind of Panglossian naivety to assume all is well based on the last 4 weeks when we remain in the EU and in the Single Market.