If we vote for Brexit what happens

Generali

posh*spice wrote: »

I don't understand your thinking - you describe yourself often as a Libertariian but want the UK to be shackled to the protectionist EU. Back in 1975 the EU was the only free trade game in town in a protectionist world. But this is 2016. The world is our oyster!

Are you a Liberatian who only wants to free trade in ETA? Nafta?

I describe myself, or at least think of myself, as libertarian lite.

Philosophically I believe that generally speaking as we move away from a free economy we become poorer. Sometimes that's a trade off that's worth it but it's rarely the case.

Similarly I generally feel that socially people should be able to do what they want if they're not hurting anyone else. If you want to marry a goat go ahead. Then the lite bit comes in when it comes to consummation.

When I look at the world as it is rather as I'd have it be I see the EU as being a pretty amazing thing as a huge single market that covers freedoms in trade, capital and labour. Yes the member Governments of the EU have some stupid ideas about Socialism but frankly those ideas are held in the UK almost as strongly as in much of the EU.

You quit the EU and the T&Cs are only going to move against you (how long do you reckon you'll be able to buy a pint for if you give up influence in the single market for example?). The UK has been a Liberalising force in the EU and has given up that voice for...

...

...

...

For what?

I honestly can't see a single gain from quitting the EU. They'll impose all the rubbish that the UK has vetoed for decades and then they'll impose a bunch more stuff just to annoy you.

I wouldn't argue for a moment that the EU is perfect or something that I would aspire to with a blank slate but I don't have a blank slate, we have hundreds of millions of people living imperfect lives in their imperfect way that are trying to rub along as best they can, hopefully without starting another massive and terrible war (Europe including the UK has form here).

Crashy_Time

ukcarper wrote: »

If in 1999 you had bought that £50k property and paid that £400 rent on a mortgage instead rent you would have owned the property outright 5 years ago.

Do you have any idea what you could get for 50k in Edinburgh in 1999?

Rinoa

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Fixed that for you.

Made all the more appealing by the British Pound's sudden resemblance to a Banana Republic currency.:rotfl:

As Generali stated they were looking to buy before the referendum.

The important fact you are attempting to gloss over is that they still want to do business in London and are clearly confident of the City's future after Brexit.

In other news the ftse hit an 11 month high yesterday. Quite a way from the post Brexit Armageddon envisaged by remain.

Crashy_Time

lydriver wrote: »

this is what I don't get...even if there is a crash, it's not going to be as big in Edinburgh as it would/will be in London
what are you hoping for?

London crash, Aberdeen crash, Brexit, China etc it all takes it`s toll. I am hoping for a total sentiment change towards debt and property.

ukcarper

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Do you have any idea what you could get for 50k in Edinburgh in 1999?

No but if you spent a bit more you would still have paid for most of it by now.

Crashy_Time

ukcarper wrote: »

No but if you spent a bit more you would still have paid for most of it by now.

How much more?

nubbins

Still ticking along nicely...

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-house-price-index-england-may-2016

ukcarper

Crashy_Time wrote: »

How much more?

What would a reasonable flat cost in 1999, where I am it would be about £70k same flat now about £250k.

Generali

Rinoa wrote: »

As Generali stated they were looking to buy before the referendum.

The important fact you are attempting to gloss over is that they still want to do business in London and are clearly confident of the City's future after Brexit.

In other news the ftse hit an 11 month high yesterday. Quite a way from the post Brexit Armageddon envisaged by remain.

1. The Wells Fargo deal has probably been 12-18 months in the offing at least. Seriously, you don't blow £400 million on a building because the OH likes the view or something. It's meaningless in Brexit terms. There is perhaps a significance in that Brexit didn't prevent the deal going ahead but it's quite possible that break clauses made it impossible to stop. Or not.

2. The FTSE 100 is not a vote on the future GDP of the UK. The biggest companies in the FTSE 100 are:

Royal Dutch Shell
HSBC Holdings
British American Tobacco
BP
GlaxoSmithKline
SABMiller
Vodafone Group
AstraZeneca
Diageo
Reckitt Benckiser Group

At a very well informed guess you've got 80-85% of the FTSE100 weight in those stocks.

These are companies for whom the UK is not a highly material part of earnings apart from HSBC most likely (I'd describe material as 20% and highly material as 33%). For most of these companies if the quid drops by 1% their share price should rise by perhaps 0.5-0.75% in quid terms.

Anyhoo, just some grist for the mill peeps.

Crashy_Time

ukcarper wrote: »

What would a reasonable flat cost in 1999, where I am it would be about £70k same flat now about £250k.

Nothing special flats in Morningside were about 200k in the early 2000`s so I have no idea, true value was being distorted even back then and Edinburgh was definitely one of the biggest property bubbles outside London. Where you are is obviously being fuelled by the secondary London bubble that all the government/central bank intervention has caused, and just as obviously, IMO, is going to crash very hard when London pops.