If we vote for Brexit what happens

vivatifosi

Generali wrote: »

As Leavers were warned previously, the EU will not make leaving the EU an easy or happy process.

There's going to be a pyrrhic victory here, by the UK and/or by Europe. Clause 50 has yet to be triggered. There is scope for a moratorium, a regroup, a rethink re terms.

If the UK joins with the EFTA/EEA countries that WILL by default become a much larger kid on the block and the EU, slowly, won't be the only option. It is not beyond the realms of possibility that a couple of small states come out and you'll have EFTA with 100m occupants and the EU with 300m. At what point will it no longer be possible to dictate terms to the EFTA countries?

mwpt

prowla wrote: »

Well, I would put myself at about 51% leave, 49% remain, so not particularly strong, and good to go with either outcome.

As far as the campaign went, all I heard from Remain was mudslinging and scaremongering; after I stripped that away there was nothing, apart from some HR rules which the UK exceeds anyway. So from my perspective there was no Remain campaign; nada, zilch.

As for your questions:

I believe that immigration is a good thing, but within limits; the current levels are simply unsustainable and the EU's response was just to say that free movement is part of the deal. I think we should have a points system for immigration, and I have said this for many years; if we assign points to skills in demand, then we can welcome the people we need in.

I believe that the EU is run by a politburo who do not think themselves answerable to the people they are supposed to represent. Their arrogance is stupefying and they are still trying to dictate to us after the vote.

Regarding trade with the EU, the EU needs us more than we need the EU; people refer to Norway and Switzerland, but is that the only model? If the EU wishes to impose trade tariffs against the UK, then the UK should reciprocate like-for like.

On trade with the rest of the world, we are no longer bound by the EU tariffs and quotas; if we can import bananas cheaply from across the ocean, then why not other foods?

On to food: we currently pay farmers not to grow produce and instead import inferior quality items from other EU countries (tasteless vegetables, water-injected meats); perhaps this could (re)juvenate farming in this country.

The EU needed the UK more than the UK needed the EU; it is telling that the Polish PM said that the result meant that the poorer countries would not be able to get so much money now... (That was our money being fed in!)

Thank you for taking the time to formulate some answers. You did directly address the question of immigration. Since you favour the points based system I assume that means no free movement of people which also means no membership of the EEA or other such arrangements as Norway and Switzerland have.

I think there will be many in the leave camp who will be of similar mind to you. However, what strikes me is that your campaign leaders at no point told you what they thought. They did not say what deal they would attempt to pursue. We obviously still do not know, and it could be an EEA type deal where we still accept free movement of people for access to the EU market.

I'm not sure many leave voters are going to be happy with that, but what choice do they have, democracy will have spoken. I guess they can attempt to vote in a new government next time, but not sure how much success that will have.

Rinoa

Generali wrote: »

As Leavers were warned previously, the EU will not make leaving the EU an easy or happy process.

Indeed. Similar to M afia leaders who order hits on those members who don't follow orders.

Great to be free at last.

gardner1

Yolina wrote: »

But there never was a particularly good reason to do so, there's paperwork and it costs money... It's not a question of foot out of the door.
To be honest if I had to choose right now this instant, I'd rather leave than become a British Citizen.

Bye Bye then:wave:

Generali

vivatifosi wrote: »

There's going to be a pyrrhic victory here, by the UK and/or by Europe. Clause 50 has yet to be triggered. There is scope for a moratorium, a regroup, a rethink re terms.

If the UK joins with the EFTA/EEA countries that WILL by default become a much larger kid on the block and the EU, slowly, won't be the only option. It is not beyond the realms of possibility that a couple of small states come out and you'll have EFTA with 100m occupants and the EU with 300m. At what point will it no longer be possible to dictate terms to the EFTA countries?

What makes you think that you will be allowed by the EU to join EFTA/EEA?

There has been a huge amount of misplaced complacency about the UK's place in a post-Brexit Europe.

ruggedtoast

Generali wrote: »

Ruggedtoast on Friday morning:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPbjPOgRtyA

SFW

Hahah you're not far off actually.

Thrugelmir

Generali wrote: »

As Leavers were warned previously, the EU will not make leaving the EU an easy or happy process.

Fortunately people with common sense aren't drawn into scaremongering claims.

Already.......

GERMANY has joined the United States and Canada in reaching out to Britain to stress the importance of trade deals with the UK outside of the European Union

Self interest rules. Always has always will.

CLAPTON

mwpt wrote: »

Thank you for taking the time to formulate some answers. You did directly address the question of immigration. Since you favour the points based system I assume that means no free movement of people which also means no membership of the EEA or other such arrangements as Norway and Switzerland have.

I think there will be many in the leave camp who will be of similar mind to you. However, what strikes me is that your campaign leaders at no point told you what they thought. They did not say what deal they would attempt to pursue. We obviously still do not know, and it could be an EEA type deal where we still accept free movement of people for access to the EU market.

I'm not sure many leave voters are going to be happy with that, but what choice do they have, democracy will have spoken. I guess they can attempt to vote in a new government next time, but not sure how much success that will have.

I don't remember that the 'remain' campaign clearly spelled out their immigration proposals either:
At no time did their leaders tell us what they thought although some are committed to bringing immigration down to 10s of thousand, some unlimited but most silent

vivatifosi

Generali wrote: »

What makes you think that you will be allowed by the EU to join EFTA/EEA?

There has been a huge amount of misplaced complacency about the UK's place in a post-Brexit Europe.

I don't for one minute think we won't be allowed to join. What I'm saying is that it will change the dynamic. EFTA is essentially a very small bloc, the part of the EEA outside of the EU is a small bloc. They will both get a heck of a lot bigger if the UK join.

I think that EFTA could well end up UK + the Scandis (less Finland as in Euro) and that the EEA sans EU will equal those countries + Switzerland.

It will be a lot harder to tell a non-EU EEA of 100m people what to do than it is a non-EU EEA of less than 20m.

prowla

mwpt wrote: »

Thank you for taking the time to formulate some answers. You did directly address the question of immigration. Since you favour the points based system I assume that means no free movement of people which also means no membership of the EEA or other such arrangements as Norway and Switzerland have.

I think there will be many in the leave camp who will be of similar mind to you. However, what strikes me is that your campaign leaders at no point told you what they thought. They did not say what deal they would attempt to pursue. We obviously still do not know, and it could be an EEA type deal where we still accept free movement of people for access to the EU market.

I'm not sure many leave voters are going to be happy with that, but what choice do they have, democracy will have spoken. I guess they can attempt to vote in a new government next time, but not sure how much success that will have.

I don't actually know what the outcome will be re. immigration, but I do know that it was not going to change one jot whilst we were in.

I've spent time in Norway and there is huge resentment from people there towards immigration; people saying they could leave their skis out, doors unlocked, etc. but now they cant, the taxi drivers having been displaced by immigrants, and so-on. We really should not look to their arrangement as a model for us.

Switzerland recently voted against a universal income and reasons voiced for this were based on the rights of immigrants to just stroll up and say "I'll have some of that, please".

Free movement is fine as an abstract concept, but the reality is that people will gravitate towards certain locations and will take from or even destroy the communities upon which they descend.

Limited immigration and integration is a good thing, but an unfettered gold-rush is not in our interests. We can all be a good Citizen of The World without destroying our own communities.

Incidentally, I wouldn't say the Leave campaigners are my Leave campaigners; I just found their case less un-believable and frankly shocking than Remain's and preferred the option of leaving to the EU's disdainful "take it or leave it that's all you're getting" attitude.