If we vote for Brexit what happens

Generali

Brexit negotiations:

http://polemics-pains.blogspot.com.au/2016/06/upcoming-uk-eu-trade-negotiations-monty.html?m=1

mwpt

ruggedtoast wrote: »

As Generali pointed out. If you'd actually like to read the article that you linked to:

then goes on to point out that UK exports would account for about 3% of EU total GDP.

I think you people really need to get your facts sorted out before you are allowed to go and vote on Thursday.

Facts have never mattered in this referendum. This applies to both sides in some measure but I'd say more so to the leave campaign. Most reports that have come out from any reasonably respected organisation, most business leaders, most academics, most anyone of substance really, have come out saying Britain would be better off staying in the EU. The leave campaign simply consigns these reports to the dustbin. The reason they are able to do this is because these sort of reports don't hold much emotional pull.

On the other hand:

"Immigrants stealing our jobs"
"Immigrants stealing our houses"
"Unelected bureaucrats making our laws"

These are the type of things people get swayed by and it is why the leave vote is anywhere close to remain. It is why leave campaign have purposely avoided stating the facts, they purposely avoid stating what they want Britain to look like after brexit.

The saving factor I can see for the UK if the vote is to leave is that no elected government is going to actually change much. I'd expect that we'd sign up to EU free trade, free movement and monetary contributions again, but would not have MEPs at the table. And we wouldn't be "in" Europe. At that point, most people would just get back to their regular lives, satisfied they'd got democracy back on course and Pavel could still come and build their loft conversions.

michaels

mwpt wrote: »

Facts have never mattered in this referendum. This applies to both sides in some measure but I'd say more so to the leave campaign. Most reports that have come out from any reasonably respected organisation, most business leaders, most academics, most anyone of substance really, have come out saying Britain would be better off staying in the EU. The leave campaign simply consigns these reports to the dustbin. The reason they are able to do this is because these sort of reports don't hold much emotional pull.

On the other hand:

"Immigrants stealing our jobs"
"Immigrants stealing our houses"
"Unelected bureaucrats making our laws"

These are the type of things people get swayed by and it is why the leave vote is anywhere close to remain. It is why leave campaign have purposely avoided stating the facts, they purposely avoid stating what they want Britain to look like after brexit.

The saving factor I can see for the UK if the vote is to leave is that no elected government is going to actually change much. I'd expect that we'd sign up to EU free trade, free movement and monetary contributions again, but would not have MEPs at the table. And we wouldn't be "in" Europe. At that point, most people would just get back to their regular lives, satisfied they'd got democracy back on course and Pavel could still come and build their loft conversions.

Or alternatively the majority of the leave campaign accept there may be a small hit to GDP, smaller still to GDP per head but think that democracy overrides money in some instances.

Whilst the very honest stay campaign have threatened ww3, an existential threat to the UK and an emergency budget slashing nhs spending. Which of those do you believe?

CLAPTON

mwpt wrote: »

On the other hand:

"Immigrants stealing our jobs"
"Immigrants stealing our houses"
"Unelected bureaucrats making our laws"

the vast majority of these quotes are from people like you .

it avoids having to address the actual problems
-do 3 million foreigners in London affect proprety availability and the ability of young families to live in a family sozed house?
-do 3 million foreigners in London have any impact of transport there?
-do 3 million foreigners in London impact hospitals, doctors etc ?
-do the 9 million foreigner in the UK impact on our high balance of payments deficit : although unfashionable at the moment, as the deficit is funding by selling our industry and foreign borrowing, it will come back to bite us soon.

You and the remain campaign purposely avoid stating the facts

The saving factor I can see for the UK if the vote is to leave is that no elected government is going to actually change much. I'd expect that we'd sign up to EU free trade, free movement and monetary contributions again, but would not have MEPs at the table. And we wouldn't be "in" Europe. At that point, most people would just get back to their regular lives, satisfied they'd got democracy back on course and Pavel could still come and build their loft conversions.

So your main hope after brexit is that the government will ignore the democractically expressed wish of the people.

The one thing that has really surprised me about the whole campaign, is the consistent belief of the 'remain' people that democracy doesnot matter at all and their belief that bureaucrats are better (or in some cases the racist view that EU politicians are better the those form the UK).

whatever happens I doubt this referendum will see the matter settled.

kabayiri

gfplux wrote: »

Kabayiri, When I wrote South East I could have said London. I only said it as "foreigners" see it.
Many people in the UK only see Rome for Italy, New York for America, Amsterdam for Holland. Those views are not intended to slight other parts of those countries.

...

So here in Lil' ole Luxembourg we know a thing or two about magnets.

gfx ... Luxembourg is a lovely place, whether you're a magnet or not! You have made a good choice. I do apologise if it seemed a personal dig. It's just even every housing discussion here is centred solely on London. It's a London-centric forum basically.

My worry is simple.

I suspect this referendum will show regional divisions, and it is depressing to consider that the UK government has rather forgotten about the regions.

I am still tempted to change my mind and vote Remain, but I worry that this referendum has done nothing but shown a complete lack of unity in UK to the rest of the world.

The vote on Thursday is not the end of it.

Filo25

Financial markets and Sterling rallying strongly today, betting markets also seem to be implying they believe the possibility of Brexit is falling (now at about 26%, peaked at over 40% last week)

Filo25

kabayiri wrote: »

gfx ... Luxembourg is a lovely place, whether you're a magnet or not! You have made a good choice. I do apologise if it seemed a personal dig. It's just even every housing discussion here is centred solely on London. It's a London-centric forum basically.

My worry is simple.

I suspect this referendum will show regional divisions, and it is depressing to consider that the UK government has rather forgotten about the regions.

I am still tempted to change my mind and vote Remain, but I worry that this referendum has done nothing but shown a complete lack of unity in UK to the rest of the world.

The vote on Thursday is not the end of it.

I think the vote has highlighted a lot of issues which the government would be foolish to ignore, even assuming they do eke out a win for Remain

CLAPTON

kabayiri wrote: »

It's just even every housing discussion here is centred solely on London. It's a London-centric forum basically.

are there similar problems outside London and the SE?

My worry is simple.

I suspect this referendum will show regional divisions, and it is depressing to consider that the UK government has rather forgotten about the regions.

I am still tempted to change my mind and vote Remain, but I worry that this referendum has done nothing but shown a complete lack of unity in UK to the rest of the world.

The vote on Thursday is not the end of it.

it is normal, in nearly all democratic countries, that elections of any sort, show lack of unity of purpose to the rest of the world.
The USA election spring to mind.

System

mwpt wrote: »

Facts have never mattered in this referendum. This applies to both sides in some measure but I'd say more so to the leave campaign.

This is one of the most shared posts on Facebook at the moment.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10154108358141068&id=628561067

Closely followed by this one
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10156979038385591&id=656870590

I'm grateful to the few people out there that are prepared to call out the lies and help to inform people of the facts.

kabayiri

CLAPTON wrote: »

...
it is normal, in nearly all democratic countries, that elections of any sort, show lack of unity of purpose to the rest of the world.
The USA election spring to mind.

I wish I could read a history book from 100 years in the future.

I suspect it would be able to set everything that is happening, particularly in the Western societies, into a wider context.