If we vote for Brexit what happens

Generali

A couple more polls on Brexit are out:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9634

There are two new polls on the EU referendum today. While the YouGov and ComRes polls conducted after the draft renegotiation showed a sharp movement towards LEAVE, these two paint a far steadier picture (though given one is online and one was conducted by phone, their overall figures contrast with each other!). ICM’s last poll had shown LEAVE nudging ahead, today’s new online figures are back to REMAIN 43%, LEAVE 39% (tabs here). Ipsos MORI’s latest telephone figures are REMAIN 54%, LEAVE 36% – virtually unchanged from their previous poll (tabs here).

It's not looking good for Brexiteers although I would caveat that by saying that it is hard to produce a poll for a one-off event.

CLAPTON

one thing is for certain : if/when we vote to stay in, our future negotiating strength is destroyed.

Graham_Devon

Not sure if this has been mentioned.

However, this week there was the announcement of a new plan (still in discussion) for the EU to divert gas supplies to countries which have the highest requirement for it within the EU.

In almost every circumstance, this would mean gas supplies being diverted from us to somewhere in Europe. We'd also have the pleasure of paying for such a plan.

I must admit, I thought it had to be the worst possible timing to announce that to us. However, in my mind, this is a taste of the stuff to come should we remain in the EU. I believe the EU will also take it as a mandate that we are happy with such arrangements.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/12160417/UK-business-gas-supplies-could-be-diverted-to-households-in-Europe-under-EU-crisis-plan.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

gfplux

I was just thinking about the hot topic of the day, CHILD BENEFIT.
I have personal experience of cross border Child Benefit payments.
For a certain period of time in the 90's I worked in the UK but my wife and daughter lived in Luxembourg. I claimed UK child benefit in the UK, however as this was LOWER than the payments available in Luxembourg we were then paid a "top up" by the Luxembourg state each month to bring it up to the correct level.
Luxembourg has about 120000 people who cross the borders (France, Germany and Belgium) every day to work. Any of these who have children at home will be claiming child benefit from Luxembourg. So these "potential" changes will have a short term benefit for Luxembourg. Wether it has any long term effects on the attractiveness of working in Luxembourg will have to wait to play out.
A further point to consider. I understand that child benefit is HIGHER in France, Germany, Belgium and Luxembourg than the UK.

mayonnaise

gfplux wrote: »

A further point to consider. I understand that child benefit is HIGHER in France, Germany, Belgium and Luxembourg than the UK.

True.
Looking at countries like The Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, France, Germany, what we call 'Old Europe', you'll find that:
- their child benefits are higher
- their pensions are more generous
- their out of work benefits are higher
- their maternity/paternity rights and pay are better
- their healthcare is better
Kind of blows the argument out of the water that immigrants come to the UK for our excellent benefits.

Generali

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Not sure if this has been mentioned.

However, this week there was the announcement of a new plan (still in discussion) for the EU to divert gas supplies to countries which have the highest requirement for it within the EU.

In almost every circumstance, this would mean gas supplies being diverted from us to somewhere in Europe. We'd also have the pleasure of paying for such a plan.

I must admit, I thought it had to be the worst possible timing to announce that to us. However, in my mind, this is a taste of the stuff to come should we remain in the EU. I believe the EU will also take it as a mandate that we are happy with such arrangements.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/12160417/UK-business-gas-supplies-could-be-diverted-to-households-in-Europe-under-EU-crisis-plan.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Presumably the UK Government has a similar action plan to force factories to close and have gas diverted to hospitals and homes in the face of a crisis and even to direct gas to colder parts of the country.

I don't see what the problem is with this really. It's just another stick to beat the EU with. It's not like the EU doesn't do a bunch of actually dumb stuff that people that want shot of the EU could point to.

The only argument if there isn't enough gas is what area gas should be rationed over. Do we take it from Devon to support Surrey? What about to support Scotland? What about to support a Scotland with more devolution or even (heaven forbid) independence? What about France or Sweden?

mayonnaise

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Not sure if this has been mentioned.

However, this week there was the announcement of a new plan (still in discussion) for the EU to divert gas supplies to countries which have the highest requirement for it within the EU.

In almost every circumstance, this would mean gas supplies being diverted from us to somewhere in Europe. We'd also have the pleasure of paying for such a plan.

I must admit, I thought it had to be the worst possible timing to announce that to us. However, in my mind, this is a taste of the stuff to come should we remain in the EU. I believe the EU will also take it as a mandate that we are happy with such arrangements.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/12160417/UK-business-gas-supplies-could-be-diverted-to-households-in-Europe-under-EU-crisis-plan.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

More scaremongering.
It's basically a framework to ensure gas supplies to households and essential social services, such as healthcare and security services are secured, in the case of a severe supply crisis.
I believe there are similar contingency plans already in place on a UK level to reduce supply to high energy industry users in order to safeguard supply to households.
It's common sense.

Generali

mayonnaise wrote: »

More scaremongering.
It's basically a framework to ensure gas supplies to households and essential social services, such as healthcare and security services are secured, in the case of a severe supply crisis.
I believe there are similar contingency plans already in place on a UK level to reduce supply to high energy industry users in order to safeguard supply to households.
It's common sense.

I can say with certainty that there is for the electricity market.

One of the benefits of being in the EU is that there are more shoulders to lean on in a crisis. If there was a crisis in the UK I would hope and expect that the rest of the EU would come to their assistance just as the UK would join in an EU-wide crisis plan.

prosaver

mayonnaise wrote: »

True.
Looking at countries like The Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, France, Germany, what we call 'Old Europe', you'll find that:
- their child benefits are higher
- their pensions are more generous
- their out of work benefits are higher
- their maternity/paternity rights and pay are better
- their healthcare is better
Kind of blows the argument out of the water that immigrants come to the UK for our excellent benefits.

does the opposite really


as I dont see many people coming here to work from these country's

France, Germany, Belgium and Luxembourg

Sapphire

Generali wrote: »

…the UK would join in an EU-wide crisis plan.

This is what I'm afraid of – pure common sense tells me that there are several areas where the EU is clearly dysfunctional and likely to fail in a big way. It's also why the EU is so keen for the UK to be in the EU – then it can be ordered about, made to pay for other countries' failures, and forced to accept rules that impinge on its sovereignty and are incompatible with it. Absurd. :cool: