If we vote for Brexit what happens

Generali

Rinoa wrote: »

Latest Poll from Opinium has Remain and Leave level at 44% each

Perhaps the important bit is that last week they had remain 2% up, so momentum with Leave.

Polls like this have a 3% margin of error so a 2% change in a single poll tells us precisely nothing. That all of the polls have moved towards Leave is highly significant however.

It'll be interesting to see the Jo Cox effect. I think that poor woman's death will swing it for Remain.

BobQ

Mail on Sunday comes out for Remain

Meanwhile BoJos been drafting a letter to Dave

Boris Johnson is to publicly disavow any bid to oust David Cameron following Thursday’s referendum.
Mr Johnson and fellow Leave campaigner Michael Gove are to write to the Prime Minister pledging to stay loyal to him even if the referendum results in Brexit.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3648549/Boris-Johnson-pledges-loyalty-PM-Britain-votes-leave-EU.html

wymondham

Generali wrote: »

It'll be interesting to see the Jo Cox effect. I think that poor woman's death will swing it for Remain.

Do you think that will change peoples minds? It will be sad if it does as the guy is not representative of any normal person or view..

ruggedtoast

Generali wrote: »

Polls like this have a 3% margin of error so a 2% change in a single poll tells us precisely nothing. That all of the polls have moved towards Leave is highly significant however.

It'll be interesting to see the Jo Cox effect. I think that poor woman's death will swing it for Remain.

It would be some kind of justice if its pointed out to that psycho fascist who killed her that the only thing he achieved was to keep the UK in the EU.

Generali

wymondham wrote: »

Do you think that will change peoples minds? It will be sad if it does as the guy is not representative of any normal person or view..

The single problem that Brexit has always faced is that Brexit = Reactionary Nutter. This sad incident will underline that in many people's minds.

Moby

michaels wrote: »

Obviously it wasn't a conspiracy but in terms of if you were looking for a way to change the result with a week to go and the polls against you this might well be what you would come up with.

I am not sure if there are people in the EU passionate about it enough to think the end would justify the means especially if they thought Brexit might lead to an EU breakup and a return to warring nation states in Europe.

Edit: i am not sure if this inappropriate topic for discussion, if people think so let me know and I will delete.

Theres no conspiracy. Its simply that this referendum debate was always going to bring into focus the issues of nationalism and immigration. Certain politicians leading the debate then link the grievances that people feel to these issues and this is exploited by the far right who attract people such as him. Its an emotional response as old as the human race itself. You have a grudge/issue........its easier to blame someone else for it, ( immigration) than to look at yourself. Look at Farage and his ilk.......they are grudge bearing one issue politicians. The tories agreeing with them are right wing populists using the EU enemy as a means of introducing their own peculiar brand of English nationalism.

wotsthat

I think the Jo Cox accused giving his name as 'Death to traitors, freedom for Britain' has done it for the leave campaign. Johnson and Gove know the game's up hence the last minute cosying up to Cameron.

The campaigns have been really quite poor. I've learnt nothing new and don't recall anyone with a new take on existing information. The polls have been kind to leave (people are biased towards doing what they think most other people will do) and they've done a sterling job keeping the nutters in their boxes. Hardly heard from Farage and his followers who aren't racist but..

This referendum should've been done and dusted months ago. An event or mistake was always going to swing it. Leave have suffered an awful piece of bad luck.

posh*spice

wymondham wrote: »

Do you think that will change peoples minds? It will be sad if it does as the guy is not representative of any normal person or view..

You think?

Google UKIP and Nazis

CLAPTON

ruggedtoast wrote: »

It would be some kind of justice if its pointed out to that psycho fascist who killed her that the only thing he achieved was to keep the UK in the EU.

I struggle with the concept that it would be 'justice'

if it were the other way round would you call it 'justice'?

setmefree2

wymondham wrote: »

Do you think that will change peoples minds? It will be sad if it does as the guy is not representative of any normal person or view..

Interesting analysis in the shift in the polls from The UK Polling Report

Like the Survation poll in the Mail on Sunday, YouGov in the Sunday Times show Remain ahead again following the pro-Leave polls a week ago. Topline figures are REMAIN 44%, LEAVE 43%, with fieldwork conducted on Thursday and Friday (full tabs are here). Almost inevitably people are going to look at these polls and assume that the murder of Jo Cox on Thursday has caused the move back towards remain.

My own view is that Jo Cox’s death probably isn’t the cause of the reverse. YouGov also conducted a poll on Wednesday-Thursday for ITV, and that already showed Leave’s lead falling (and indeed, a third of the fieldwork for this poll was conducted before Jo Cox’s death was announced). Looking at the rest of the questions, there is also a marked shift in people’s views on how they think leaving the EU would impact their finances – 33% of people now think that they would be worse off outside the EU, compared to 23% a fortnight ago.

The historic trend in referendums is for people to move towards the status quo. In Scotland a couple of years ago a couple of polls a fortnight out were neck-and-neck, but moved back to a clear NO lead by the final polls (and there was a further swing on the day itself). In the EU referendum polls have consistently shown that people think leave is the riskier choice and that people think it will damage the economy. While it was never inevitable, this has always suggested that late movement towards Remain was quite likely. If people are increasingly worried about Brexit’s impact on their own personal finances, then even more so.

Of course, we will never know for sure. The reality is that we can see changes in headline voting intention in polls, but we can never be certain what causes them: all we can do is look at what events happened at the same time and at what changes there have been in other questions in the poll that might have driven a shift. What we do know is that, whatever the reason, we’ve got four new polls tonight – some before Jo Cox’s death, some after – with three of them showing a shift back towards Remain.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/