If we vote for Brexit what happens

wotsthat

Rinoa wrote: »

Interesting analysis on recent polls by JP Morgan.

Make of it what you will.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-17/jpmorgan-reports-3-5-lead-leave-brexit-referendum

I struggle to reconcile this analysis with the odds on betfair.

In a few days we'll know whether these polls or gamblers were correct.

prowla

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Inform us more. What's a "Typical little englander "?

Someone who can't use big letters at the start of words?

Rinoa

wotsthat wrote: »

I struggle to reconcile this analysis with the odds on betfair.

In a few days we'll know whether these polls or gamblers were correct.

The gamblers are working on the assumption that the 'don't knows' usually end up voting for the status quo.

As demonstrated perfectly in the Quebec referendum:



But every situations different so you can never be certain.

michaels

Rinoa wrote: »

The gamblers are working on the assumption that the 'don't knows' usually end up voting for the status quo.

As demonstrated perfectly in the Quebec referendum:



But every situations different so you can never be certain.

Scotland was also the same - effectively the 5% of don't knows all went for No. However I am not sure there is a direct read across as the Scotland turnout was high as both sides were motivated. I am not sure that is the case here which may make a difference.

kabayiri

Rinoa wrote: »

The gamblers are working on the assumption that the 'don't knows' usually end up voting for the status quo.
...

My guess is 2 opposite patterns :

- status quo voters
- the referendum equivalent of "shy Tories"

It's not good to admit you are a potential Leave voter. People on things like social media will lump you in the UKIP group.

My relatives who are like this just say nothing and won't even tell exit pollsters.

Rinoa

Latest Poll from Opinium has Remain and Leave level at 44% each

Perhaps the important bit is that last week they had remain 2% up, so momentum with Leave.

Arklight

Got a message from the local branch of the Labour Party that in light of Jo Cox's murder, Remain campaigning is cancelled in the town tomorrow.

So sad that the thugs and bullies are winning.

Mortgagefreeman

Arklight wrote: »

So sad that the thugs and bullies are winning.

Well it's your fault for voting for them!

chucknorris

Arklight wrote: »

So sad that the thugs and bullies are winning.

I don't know about thugs, but bullies don't win, they live incomplete unsatisfying lives, I've witnessed it so many times.

chucknorris

Rinoa wrote: »

The gamblers are working on the assumption that the 'don't knows' usually end up voting for the status quo.

As demonstrated perfectly in the Quebec referendum:



But every situations different so you can never be certain.

Ahh! That explains why the betfair price has changed so much in favour of remain, I really can't see 'leave' winning without a substantial lead at the polls, due to the fact that most unknowns are very likely to vote 'remain'.