If we vote for Brexit what happens

michaels

kabayiri wrote: »

I believe that the EU owns the massive anchors which keep the UK in close proximity to our major European market.

A Brexit vote would result in these anchors being raised, and we would float off.

On a plus note, we might float near enough to truly claim the Falklands as our own.

And yet despite never having been anchored anywhere near the EU, the US, Brazil, China, Japan nad South Korea have managed to trade into the European market....

michaels

More support for the 'Brexit is not an economic disaster' sentiment from the EU funded IFS* who find that the size of the negative impact of Brexit would only be one sixth of the GFC:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36371700

EU exit could add two years to austerity, IFS says

* As an aside - if a set of researchrs with backing from the sugar industry publish a survey saying sugar is good then the BBC is all over the funding link and yet there has been no mention of the fact that the IFS receives a good deal of funding from the EU in the BBC coverage of the IFS report.

Generali

michaels wrote: »

More support for the Brexit is not an economic disaster from the EU funded IFS* who find that the size of the negative impact of Brexit would only be one sixth of the GFC:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36371700



* As an aside - if a set of researchrs with backing from the sugar industry publish a survey saying sugar is good then the BBC is all over the funding link and yet there has been no mention of the fact that the IFS receives a good deal of funding from the EU in the BBC coverage of the IFS report.

It's hard to see how the short term impact could be anything better than horrible. Longer term I can see both arguments but short term I can't see anything apart from a cluster whatsit.

michaels

Generali wrote: »

It's hard to see how the short term impact could be anything better than horrible. Longer term I can see both arguments but short term I can't see anything apart from a cluster whatsit.

The IFS suggestion is 2 extra years of austerity - given the GFC required 10 years of austerity it sound smore like 'catch a cold' normal recession magnitude problem not a 'life-support' GFC magnitude problem. Sure recessions are unpleasant but they are not outwith the 'price worth paying' if you do think there are non-economic benefits. Did Iraq and Afganistan cost us more or less than 20 billion....each?

Filo25

My gut feeling is that if we do end up voting to leave the EU, and actually carry through with it, I suspect the most likely outcome remains membership of the EEA (Swiss, Norwegian model), which would certainly alleviate some of the negative economic impacts of Brexit, on the other hand it would still leave immigration levels basically unchanged, as freedom of movement remains integral to EEA membership.

I imagine many Brexit voters would feel a deep sense of betrayal at that outcome, but it still seems to be favoured in some Tory circles, I would imagine UKIP would also be less than pleased with it but they don't have a huge influence at present.

That would require some very fancy footwork politically to pull off though.

Crashy_Time

Filo25 wrote: »

My gut feeling is that if we do end up voting to leave the EU, and actually carry through with it, I suspect the most likely outcome remains membership of the EEA (Swiss, Norwegian model), which would certainly alleviate some of the negative economic impacts of Brexit, on the other hand it would still leave immigration levels basically unchanged, as freedom of movement remains integral to EEA membership.

I imagine many Brexit voters would feel a deep sense of betrayal at that outcome, but it still seems to be favoured in some Tory circles, I would imagine UKIP would also be less than pleased with it but they don't have a huge influence at present.

That would require some very fancy footwork politically to pull off though.

If that happened the UK government that didn`t control immigration numbers would be out of power, we don`t have that option at present?

Filo25

Crashy_Time wrote: »

If that happened the UK government that didn`t control immigration numbers would be out of power, we don`t have that option at present?

Would they?

If suddenly a lot of people who had previously shown their alleged eurosceptic credentials said it was a choice between allowing immigration or tanking the economy, surely it would be a small price to pay for a (kind of) freedom from EU regulation,

Rinoa

Vote remain and look forward to this:

The EU is laying the groundwork for new, centrally planned National Insurance-style numbers for every taxpayer in Europe. The proposal was passed by the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee last night, and chillingly calls for a ‘European Taxpayer Identification Number’ to keep track of every EU citizen. This is the European Commission text:

“Proper identification of taxpayers is essential to effective exchange of information between tax administrations. The creation of European Taxpayer Identification Number (EU TIN) would provide the best means for this identification. It would allow any third party to quickly, easily and correctly identify and record TINs in cross-border relations and serve as a basis for effective automatic exchange of information between member states tax administrations.”

Brussels wants the ability to track every EU taxpayer, laying the foundations for a new European tax…
The report also calls for the EU to take over member states’ corporate taxation powers with a common corporation tax base, banning sovereign states from increasing their competitiveness by cutting corporation tax below 15%. This is a direct attack on sovereignty and attempt to create a new, centralised EU tax system…
UPDATE: UKIP’s Steven Woolfe says:

“If we stay in the EU, we will be forced to pay a European tax. Plans for an EU taxpayer ID system – effectively a new continental National Insurance number – demonstrates their real ambitions for further integration. They are laying the foundations for an EU tax system.”

Welcome to the United States of Europe.

http://order-order.com/2016/05/25/eu-plots-europe-wide-tax-id-numbers/

Filo25

I must have missed the bit about the new European tax in the European Commission text, fortunately those clever lads at UKIP figured out that it was coming anyway.

Just to be clear the Brexit campaign has never indulged in Project Fear.

mayonnaise

order-order.com aka Guido Fawkes aka an offshore tax dodging outfit (Global & General Nominees Limited) run by Paul Staines, a guy with several convictions for drunk driving under his name.
Great source of info. :rotfl: