If we vote for Brexit what happens

Conrad

The polls last year gave us Trumps '25% ceiling', subsequently revised to 30%, then 35%, and of course all wrong.


If Boris can get Churchillian, Brexit could win, but Remain will win as things stand currently..

Conrad

mayonnaise wrote: »

Yes, a trade deal between the UK and the remaining 26 members of the EU will be swift. Weeks probably.

Totally different to an EU / US trade deal, as we are already aligned in terms of regs and rules and general tone, and are the EU's biggest export market and right next door.


No trade deal will make EU unemployment even worse - and as such is unthinkable.
Why would the EU seek to make things rocky and problematic, when it is teetering on a knife edge?


Even without one we'd be fine and could buy cheaper from elsewhere (as not subject to customs union prices), but that's an irrelevance as we would get one.

Generali

Conrad wrote: »

The polls last year gave us Trumps '25% ceiling', subsequently revised to 30%, then 35%, and of course all wrong.


If Boris can get Churchillian, Brexit could win, but Remain will win as things stand currently..

Whether it's a good or a bad thing I leave for others to judge but I think you're right. Unless the Brexitiers can pull something big out of the bag, or more likely events run in their favour, it's highly likely that the Remainiacs will win.

The timing being as it is, even an EU catastrophe might well not lead people to switch to Brexit as the first reaction in a crisis is to grab on to the familiar.

CLAPTON

Filo25 wrote: »

Our democratically elected British government has been one of the biggest cheerleaders for Turkey joining the EU for many years now, to the best of my knowledge anyway.

I was questioning mayo's total commitment to being a world citizen and his belief in the total unrestricted free movement of people and his advocacy of Turkey joining the EU asap.
In fact he is a hypocrite who likes to 'grand stand' about, what he thinks are fashionable liberal views, whilst hanging onto those white christian apron strings.

BobQ

Sapphire wrote: »

Just an observation, but I think you may be breaching copyright law by posting these extensive quote from outside sources here without permission of the copyright holder.

The document does not have a Copyright Marking on it and claims to be a quote from an EU document.

However, take your point so have abbreviated the list.

That said the Telegraph presumably sponsored the report in the hope that it would be widely read.

Rinoa

mayonnaise wrote: »

Yes, a trade deal between the UK and the remaining 26 members of the EU will be swift. Weeks probably.

Why not.The EU/Canada deal's already sorted. We'll just have the Canada deal. It's simply a matter of substituting UK for Canada on the word processor and the deals waiting to be signed.

mayonnaise

Conrad wrote: »

The polls last year gave us Trumps '25% ceiling', subsequently revised to 30%, then 35%, and of course all wrong.


If Boris can get Churchillian, Brexit could win, but Remain will win as things stand currently..

There is not, and never will be anything Churchillian about Boris.
He's completely out of his depth in the EU debate and is rapidly coming off the rails. Equating the EU with Hitler, dismissing Obama's views because he's black or rehashing populist catchphrases on bananas, hoovers and kettles. It will appeal to a small portion of the populace, but it's all getting rather boring in my opinion.

CLAPTON

Generali wrote: »

The TPP took 8 years to negotiate:

http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/tpp-what-the-trade-pact-means-for-australia-20151005-gk20h9.html

One assumes these countries already trade between each other?
One assumes they are not all basket cases due to the lack of TPP.

If TPP never actually comes to fruition, will you be returning to the UK because of the collapse of the Aus economy?

CLAPTON

mayonnaise wrote: »

There is not, and never will be anything Churchillian about Boris.
He's completely out of his depth in the EU debate and is rapidly coming off the rails. Equating the EU with Hitler, dismissing Obama's views because he's black or rehashing populist catchphrases on bananas, hoovers and kettles. It will appeal to a small portion of the populace, but it's all getting rather boring in my opinion.

next some-one will be suggesting WW3 and the total victory of ISIL over europe

How is your total commitment to being a world citizen and believing in the total freedom of movement of people, coming on?

Conrad

mayonnaise wrote: »

There is not, and never will be anything Churchillian about Boris.
He's completely out of his depth in the EU debate and is rapidly coming off the rails.

Again you ignore the lessons from history, I don't know why you would do this? People aren't 'set in stone', things can and do change otherwise we'd literally never change anything. Have you not seen the films about Bill Gates and Steve Jobs (thousands of other examples) that single handedly reshaped events, overturning orthodoxy?


Time and again people have turned the course of history by surprising everyone and pulling off a great things everyone said were silly / irrelevant / never gonna happen / too unknown / dangerous.

Seriously try watching a few BBC4 documentaries, you'll see what I mean.