If we vote for Brexit what happens

wotsthat

Yah_Boo_Sux wrote: »

Nothing at all to do with the rise in duty as well then? :whistle:

Every penny counts but you're talking about 8p in extra duty so almost nothing to do with it. If wine had only increased by 8p in the last year I'd be pretty happy.

BenjaG

I simply find it unbelievable, that the UK failed to given clear signals to investors about its future direction.


All potential investors know is that things will change, the UK will very likely leave the EU (market and jurisdiction), with no idea of its future path.


We can't even be sure Theresa May will remain in government, twelve months after the referendum...


This uncertainty is very bad and will have an impact on the job creation rate, not now, but in the coming months and years.

Yah_Boo_Sux

wotsthat wrote: »

Every penny counts but you're talking about 8p in extra duty so almost nothing to do with it. If wine had only increased by 8p in the last year I'd be pretty happy.

I was going to let this go but - well yet again you're wrong. You need to stop reading the media and believing it without question, it seems.
Read this

The WSTA said Brexit’s impact had led to a 3% increase in wine prices in the 12 weeks to 25 March, which compares with a 1% increase over the previous two years – 2015 to 2017.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jun/01/chateau-brexit-average-price-of-bottle-of-wine-reaches-record-high See that? 3%.

So a £5 bottle of wine @3% extra (less the duty, tax & vat etc, see #1 below) = 93p for wine so for the sake of argument an extra 3 pence. 3 pence extra!

On a £10 bottle the extra 3% (after duty, vat & tax come off) = 3.32 in wine so increase = 10p, give or take.

So even on a tenner bottle of wine, the increased cost according to the wine trade themselves as a result of a lower Pound is about 10p but you think that the (wrong, BTW) 8p duty rise you state isn't much in comparison?
(Wrong because the actual average rise including vat is 12p/bottle - though it depends upon the wine, fortified being 14p for example. http://www.wsta.co.uk/press/644-wsta-slams-inflation-busting-tax-hikes-on-wines-and-spirits Try reading the government duty thingy here if you're still having trouble. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/alcohol-duty-rate-changes/alcohol-duty-rate-changes )

I'm not denying wine has gone up in price, nor am I denying that it may well go up more or that Brexit could (or equally could not) have a detrimental effect in the future.
To say that current price increases are "predominantly down to exchange rates" as you did is wrong as shown above. Though that might change in the future.. . . . just as it equally might not.
Certainly the global shortage will have a greater impact http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-24753585/wine-lovers-face-global-shortage-threat
http://mail.elpost.co/article/global-wine-shortage-ahead/



1 http://www.decanter.com/learn/tax-wine-much-pay-uk-ask-decanter-357119/

And note I didn't remove packaging & transport costs from the wine so I'm being doubly generous with the cost increases.

wotsthat

Yah_Boo_Sux wrote: »

I was going to let this go but - well yet again you're wrong. You need to stop reading the media and believing it without question, it seems.
Read this https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jun/01/chateau-brexit-average-price-of-bottle-of-wine-reaches-record-high See that? 3%.

So a £5 bottle of wine @3% extra (less the duty, tax & vat etc, see #1 below) = 93p for wine so for the sake of argument an extra 3 pence. 3 pence extra!

On a £10 bottle the extra 3% (after duty, vat & tax come off) = 3.32 in wine so increase = 10p, give or take.

So even on a tenner bottle of wine, the increased cost according to the wine trade themselves as a result of a lower Pound is about 10p but you think that the (wrong, BTW) 8p duty rise you state isn't much in comparison?
(Wrong because the actual average rise including vat is 12p/bottle - though it depends upon the wine, fortified being 14p for example. http://www.wsta.co.uk/press/644-wsta-slams-inflation-busting-tax-hikes-on-wines-and-spirits Try reading the government duty thingy here if you're still having trouble. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/alcohol-duty-rate-changes/alcohol-duty-rate-changes )

I'm not denying wine has gone up in price, nor am I denying that it may well go up more or that Brexit could (or equally could not) have a detrimental effect in the future.
To say that current price increases are "predominantly down to exchange rates" as you did is wrong as shown above. Though that might change in the future.. . . . just as it equally might not.
Certainly the global shortage will have a greater impact http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-24753585/wine-lovers-face-global-shortage-threat
http://mail.elpost.co/article/global-wine-shortage-ahead/

1 http://www.decanter.com/learn/tax-wine-much-pay-uk-ask-decanter-357119/

And note I didn't remove packaging & transport costs from the wine so I'm being doubly generous with the cost increases.

Oh dear. The logic behind your sums is wrong.

According to the links a £10 bottle of wine has increased by £10 x 3% = 30p. It's not just the wine component you need to multiply by 3%.

Looking at your article it's based on survey data to March and they warn they don't include the duty increase so the duty needs to be added on (and the VAT on the duty increase).

It's laughable that you think you've proved me wrong when your article contains examples of exactly what I've suggested and you've got the maths completely wrong.

Specialist wine retailer Naked Wines, owned by Majestic, upped the price of half of its wines by 5% last autumn, adding about 50p to some of its most popular wines, due to the weaker pound.

For example, Bordeaux chateau owner Gavin Quinney has increased the price of his 2015 Trois Hectares Blanc to £11 from £9.95 last December.

The average 75cl bottle topped £5.50 for the first time towards the end of last year, and hit £5.56 in the first quarter of 2017, according to the Wine and Spirit Trade Association (WSTA).

Yah_Boo_Sux

Oh dear, how sad it is that these threads seem full of belligerent posters just spoiling for disagreement. Responses highlighted in red below.

wotsthat wrote: »

Oh dear. The logic behind your sums is wrong.
Wrong. Yours is.

According to the links a £10 bottle of wine has increased by £10 x 3% = 30p. Really - then show us where in my links says that? It's not just the wine component you need to multiply by 3%.
Wrong. The increase is on the wine not on the duty, VAT and tax. Or do you somehow think that any exchange rate difference applies to these too even though they are purely UK levied?

Looking at your article it's based on survey data to March and they warn they don't include the duty increase so the duty needs to be added on (and the VAT on the duty increase).
As I said above, so you're getting there slowly.

It's laughable that you think you've proved me wrong Until you provide evidence as highlighted above, you are when your article contains examples of exactly what I've suggested Again, where? Links? Evidence? and you've got the maths completely wrong.
No, you have and you won't admit it. Unless you provide proof from the linked evidence which I provided - in which case I will admit error. Will you now?

wotsthat

Here you go

The WSTA said Brexit’s impact had led to a 3% increase in wine prices in the 12 weeks to 25 March

That's 3% on the price of a bottle. Not sure why you think it's just on the wine component.

There's a sense check we can do. Say the whole of the exchange rate change has been passed on then the link suggests 11% on the FX priced components i.e. wine, bottle & filling (although some is shipped in bulk and filled here), some of the transport, etc.

You had £3.32 as the wine component of a £10 bottle of wine so let's go with that and multiply by 11% = an increase of around 36p . That's pretty close to £10 x 3%.

Yah_Boo_Sux

wotsthat wrote: »

Here you go



That's 3% on the price of a bottle. Not sure why you think it's just on the wine component.

There's a sense check we can do. Say the whole of the exchange rate change has been passed on then the link suggests 11% on the FX priced components i.e. wine, bottle & filling (although some is shipped in bulk and filled here), some of the transport, etc.

You had £3.32 as the wine component of a £10 bottle of wine so let's go with that and multiply by 11% = an increase of around 36p . That's pretty close to £10 x 3%.

No link then? No proof?

AGAIN - it very clearly says "3% increase in wine prices". IT DOES NOT SAY "a 3% increase on a bottle of wine". So half an hour gone and still no proof of your mistaken assumptions yet, but I'm not impatient. I can wait ........ for proof.

tracey3596

wotsthat wrote: »

Here you go



That's 3% on the price of a bottle. Not sure why you think it's just on the wine component.

There's a sense check we can do. Say the whole of the exchange rate change has been passed on then the link suggests 11% on the FX priced components i.e. wine, bottle & filling (although some is shipped in bulk and filled here), some of the transport, etc.

You had £3.32 as the wine component of a £10 bottle of wine so let's go with that and multiply by 11% = an increase of around 36p . That's pretty close to £10 x 3%.

No, it does not say that it is 3 percent on a bottle of wine at all.
As I imagine you know after reading again and attempting to prove yourself correct and failing but refusing to accept.
I can imagine you being a believer that when a sale says "up to 75% off" you must complain when what you want isn't reduced at all.
Interpreting what is written to suit yourself does not make your deductions correct.

wotsthat

Yah_Boo_Sux wrote: »

No link then? No proof?

AGAIN - it very clearly says "3% increase in wine prices". IT DOES NOT SAY "a 3% increase on a bottle of wine". So half an hour gone and still no proof of your mistaken assumptions yet, but I'm not impatient. I can wait ........ for proof.

Here's the source report..

http://www.wsta.co.uk/press/847-brexit-pushes-up-the-price-of-a-bottle-of-wine-to-an-all-time-high-wsta-market-report-reveals

The WSTA Market Report Q2 2017 (in the 12 weeks to 25th of March), released today, shows the average priced bottle of wine is up 19p a bottle compared to £5.37 during the same 12 weeks of 2015 and up 16p from £5.40 during the same period in 2016.

Increase of 16p from £5.40 during the same period in 2016.

£0.16/ £5.40 = 3%

ThinkingOutLoud_2

So with inflation above 2% - wine is almost on a par with the average.

Yawn.