If we vote for Brexit what happens

Herzlos

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

EU sales down 6%. UK sales down 19%.

The bigger worry is quite obviously for all the British car industry workers wondering if they'll have a job soon.

Sales seem to be growing faster in the 8 newest EU countries, for which I suspect EU car manufacturers will be better placed to capitalize on.

vivatifosi

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

EU sales down 6%. UK sales down 19%.

The bigger worry is quite obviously for all the British car industry workers wondering if they'll have a job soon.

Out of interest over what period? We had recorded much higher sales in March due to an anomaly as a result of massive increases in VED, which has reduced April sales. If over a year, that would be more worrying.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Herzlos wrote: »

Sales seem to be growing faster in the 8 newest EU countries, for which I suspect EU car manufacturers will be better placed to capitalize on.

Let's see if they can replace the lost British sales and at competitive pricing.
I suspect that Lithuania, Latvia, Slovakia etc. will not pay the premiums achieved in the UK car market.;)

Herzlos wrote: »

But if they are already losing their jobs because we are buying less, why would they give us a better deal to preserve this ~20% reduction in sales?

Or do you think the decline is going to be short lived? (Personally, I do. Not many people will have brought their sales forward by more than about a year, sales were up in the last quarter so it was probably that. Maybe some people will hold off a bit longer on new cars, but people are going to have to start buying cars again).

Nice attempt to twist what was actually said.
Who said they are already losing their jobs?


I think the decline will indeed be short-lived - but where are these EU-made cars going that were not sold in the UK, then?
Lithuania and such, eh?
:rotfl:

I have shown how UK is making record numbers and selling more outside the EU.
The lower pound makes UK-made cars more attractive.
If the EU tries to change this through (lack of?) trade agreements it will affect them too.
Because one in three UK car sales are from Germany; what about France & the others?

gfplux

Rinoa wrote: »

We'll be dragged down with this for years if we negotiate. Even if we do end up with some kind of deal there will be endless conditions attached

The one thing business likes is certainty. Far better to bite the bullet now, leave in 2019 with no divorce bill, no further payments to the EU ever, no ECJ telling us what we can and can't do.

UK business and UK govt. know exactly where they stand and can make plans accordingly.

That is one strategy although I think it unlikely.
However leaving without having sorted the financial settlement while an option would lead to court action and all the mess of Britain being chased through the courts.
UK Business would particularly dislike having goods seized by bailiffs acting on behalf of the EU.
Of the first three things on the agenda during the "divorce" process the financial settlement will be the easiest to negotiate and agree. Perhaps Britain could walk after that had been pencilled in.

gfplux

Barnier has made clear his (EU) first items on the agenda of the Brexit negotiations in June will be:-

EU and UK citizens rights
Irelands border
Financial settlement.

Those are his (EU) first three things. We think we know that Britains first item Would also be:-
EU and UK citizens rights.

What opinions do people have on the order of the agenda, will negotiations go on in parallel and most important WHAT will be on the agenda, how many points are there to discuss after the first three?

I have one
European Atomic Energy Community. This is governed by the European Court of Justice. Britain has to leave as the ECJ is a red line for Britain.

Any others. It will be interesting (fun) to make a list.
If anyone happens to speak to any potential Tory candidate they (the candidate) might have items to add to the list having been briefed by party headquarters.

LHW99

However leaving without having sorted the financial settlement while an option would lead to court action

Not sure if this is the case, as both sides seem to have doubts that any bill is enforceable
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/04/uk-could-quit-eu-without-paying-a-penny-say-lords
http://metro.co.uk/2017/05/07/even-eu-lawyers-say-e100bn-brexit-bill-is-legally-impossible-to-enforce-6621018/

For example, we took on payment responsibiities for past EU workers' pensions when we joined, even though when those people were employed the UK had not been a member. Which tends to imply those bills have to be paid by the current members of the club. From 2019, or thereabouts, we will not be a member, so our responsibility ends.

LHW99

Also interesting
https://www.theguardian.com/law/2017/may/16/uk-brexit-boost-ecj-rules-trade-deals-parliament-ratification

Rinoa

gfplux wrote: »

That is one strategy although I think it unlikely.
However leaving without having sorted the financial settlement while an option would lead to court action and all the mess of Britain being chased through the courts.
UK Business would particularly dislike having goods seized by bailiffs acting on behalf of the EU.

So you think EU bailiffs will sail across the channel, enter UK factories, seize plant and machinery and sail back to the EU?

It's an interesting thought gflux

Rinoa

LHW99 wrote: »

Also interesting
https://www.theguardian.com/law/2017/may/16/uk-brexit-boost-ecj-rules-trade-deals-parliament-ratification

Hmmm. Curiously reports from various sources differ on interpretation. Some believing it helps negotiations others saying it hampers them.

cogito

gfplux wrote: »

Barnier has made clear his (EU) first items on the agenda of the Brexit negotiations in June will be:-

EU and UK citizens rights
Irelands border
Financial settlement.

Those are his (EU) first three things. We think we know that Britains first item Would also be:-
EU and UK citizens rights.

What opinions do people have on the order of the agenda, will negotiations go on in parallel and most important WHAT will be on the agenda, how many points are there to discuss after the first three?

I have one
European Atomic Energy Community. This is governed by the European Court of Justice. Britain has to leave as the ECJ is a red line for Britain.

Any others. It will be interesting (fun) to make a list.
If anyone happens to speak to any potential Tory candidate they (the candidate) might have items to add to the list having been briefed by party headquarters.

Citizens' rights should be first on the list if only because it should be the easiest to resolve. Or it would be but for the EU's insulting demand that the ECJ should have jurisdiction. Just another indication that the EU aren't all that interested in an agreement but are happy to use their citizens as pawns.