If we vote for Brexit what happens

A_Medium_Size_Jock

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

And somehow the Brexiteers seem to think this strengthens our hand.... Amazing.

Tell that to Bavarian & French car factory workers who wonder if they will have a job soon.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

always_sunny wrote: »

What about the British manufactures? Or car will be sold elsewhere?
Half of them (or so) go to the continent.

The number sold outside the EU is increasing.
Look at the figures.


Also UK manufacturing hit a record high recently:
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-4057930/UK-car-production-smashes-17-year-record-making-1-6m-motors.html


https://www.smmt.co.uk/2017/04/best-month-since-2000-for-uk-car-manufacturing-as-exports-drive-production-demand/

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

We're not going to get the deal we currently seem to be asking for: no exit fee, full trade, full passporting, no migration, no ECJ.

I always struggle with this notion we are the little begging dog to be handed something as opposed to a counterparty looking to agree a mutually beneficial relationship.


The 27 vs 1 argument doesn't cut it either, the fact the UK is Holland's second largest export market is a huge matter for the Dutch, as but one example. (http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2016/06/dutch-earned-e20bn-on-exports-to-britain-last-year/)


I've said from day one we are not a weak petitioner to be handed down scraps.

Conrad

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

The number sold outside the EU is increasing.
Look at the figures.


Also UK manufacturing hit a record high recently:
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-4057930/UK-car-production-smashes-17-year-record-making-1-6m-motors.html


https://www.smmt.co.uk/2017/04/best-month-since-2000-for-uk-car-manufacturing-as-exports-drive-production-demand/

I'm afraid this cannot be right, our resident Remainers assured us our exports would struggle due to the rising cost of imported components.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Herzlos wrote: »

We could very well get a Canada deal eventually, but it'll still be inferior to what we have now. Or we can go full WTO and hope something works itself out.

Indeed.

So called 'Free Trade deals' are significantly worse than membership of the Single Market.

We already have the best trade deal we'll ever get with the EU - by definition any other deal will be worse than membership of the single market.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Conrad wrote: »

I've said from day one.

And you were wrong then too.

Herzlos

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Tell that to Bavarian & French car factory workers who wonder if they will have a job soon.

But if they are already losing their jobs because we are buying less, why would they give us a better deal to preserve this ~20% reduction in sales?

Or do you think the decline is going to be short lived? (Personally, I do. Not many people will have brought their sales forward by more than about a year, sales were up in the last quarter so it was probably that. Maybe some people will hold off a bit longer on new cars, but people are going to have to start buying cars again).

always_sunny

Conrad wrote: »

I'm afraid this cannot be right, our resident Remainers assured us our exports would struggle due to the rising cost of imported components.

Makes you even wonder why there's a need to have a deal with the EU!

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Tell that to Bavarian & French car factory workers who wonder if they will have a job soon.

EU sales down 6%. UK sales down 19%.

The bigger worry is quite obviously for all the British car industry workers wondering if they'll have a job soon.

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

I always struggle with this notion we are the little begging dog to be handed something as opposed to a counterparty looking to agree a mutually beneficial relationship.

1. We are, but that's not the point. We're never going to agree on that.

2. I'm not talking about our assymetric position, I'm just saying that we're asking for what we already know is impossible; we want the full benefits of being part of the club, but with none of the responsibilities (membership fees, following the rules), and we want to split up the 4 key principles of the EU. We're asking for some sort of super-special deal that is so much better (from our POV) to any other deal, which being a poor deal for the EU and would directly lead to it's downfall because everyone else would want the same cake-and-eat it deal, then with no-one paying or following the rules it'd collapse.

We can get a Canada deal, in probably the same time it took Canada to get the deal, but it's significantly worse than what we have already.

I don't have any inside knowledge of the EU, but it's so blindingly obvious.

How about this; if we get a deal that's better than the Canadian deal, I'll PM Conrad my forum account details so that he can disable my account in a way I can't restore, and I'll donate £20 to a charity of his choice.