If we vote for Brexit what happens

Yah_Boo_Sux

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

The news recently has been full of French election woes and EU belligerence - but no-one has mentioned the election in Germany today.

In Schleswig-Holstein (Germany's most northerly state) elections today are being seen as a test to Angela Merkel's popularity; more-so since the opposition SPD have held control for the past five years.

http://www.dw.com/en/polls-open-in-schleswig-holstein-state-election/a-38738882

The CDU (Merkel's party) won with 33% of the vote.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-germany-election-schleswig-holstein-e-idUKKBN1830OK?il=0

antrobus

Yah_Boo_Sux wrote: »

The CDU (Merkel's party) won with 33% of the vote.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-germany-election-schleswig-holstein-e-idUKKBN1830OK?il=0

Curious how the headline reads "Merkel's conservatives thump rivals" and the text talks about the CDU's "decisive victory", when they are projected to get 33% of the vote. Politics must be different in Germany.:)

I believe that they are talking about the exit poll which shows that the SPD led coalition will be no more. Alternative for Germany may get some seats, FDP advanced.

http://www.dw.com/en/exit-polls-show-victory-for-christian-democrats-in-schleswig-holstein/a-38744028

gfplux

kabayiri wrote: »

What do we think is the EU's end goal here?

I'm genuinely curious.

I find the 1919-45 period of German history fascinating. I'm sure the victors from the first World War did not intend that the end goal of their policy towards Germany was to create a fascist state on their doorstep.

With this in mind, what do you actually do with a post-Brexit UK, as the EU?

With Britain moving further right I am sure that the EU must worry that during and after the negotiations Britain will move even further right.
Non of this is an intended consequence just as the allies did not expect German Nationalism to rise, but it did.
The world of unintended consequences is littered with good intentioned deals.

gfplux

antrobus wrote: »

Curious how the headline reads "Merkel's conservatives thump rivals" and the text talks about the CDU's "decisive victory", when they are projected to get 33% of the vote. Politics must be different in Germany.:)

I believe that they are talking about the exit poll which shows that the SPD led coalition will be no more. Alternative for Germany may get some seats, FDP advanced.

http://www.dw.com/en/exit-polls-show-victory-for-christian-democrats-in-schleswig-holstein/a-38744028

Politics is very different with a history of coalitions (3 since world war 2) individual party's rarely achieve huge numbers.
In 2013 Merkel won with 40% of the vote.

cogito

gfplux wrote: »

With Britain moving further right I am sure that the EU must worry that during and after the negotiations Britain will move even further right.
Non of this is an intended consequence just as the allies did not expect German Nationalism to rise, but it did.
The world of unintended consequences is littered with good intentioned deals.

It's a fallacy to say that the UK is moving to the right. It's pretty clear that the Conservatives have taken the centre ground from Labour who have moved sharply to the left.

It's only people like yourself who think that the vote to leave the EU is an outbreak of patriotic nationalism when it's nothing of the kind. The British people have simply voted to remove themselves from an organisation to which we never truly belonged and would never have joined in the first place but for mendacious politicians like Heath and Wilson.

Enterprise_1701C

cogito wrote: »

It's a fallacy to say that the UK is moving to the right. It's pretty clear that the Conservatives have taken the centre ground from Labour who have moved sharply to the left.

It's only people like yourself who think that the vote to leave the EU is an outbreak of patriotic nationalism when it's nothing of the kind. The British people have simply voted to remove themselves from an organisation to which we never truly belonged and would never have joined in the first place but for mendacious politicians like Heath and Wilson.

Very true. It has been stated that the intention to become the eu was there from the start of the common market, but simply hidden until the opportunity arose.

It has also been said that we are not legally members of the eu, that we were actually taken into the eu legally - Heath didn't have a referendum because opinion polls at the time (1972) showed that the British people were hugely opposed (by a margin of two to one) against joining the Common Market. Instead, Heath merely signed the documents that took us into what became the European Union on the basis that Parliament alone had passed the European Communities Bill of 1972.

I wonder what the eu would say about that one.

kabayiri

gfplux wrote: »

With Britain moving further right I am sure that the EU must worry that during and after the negotiations Britain will move even further right.
Non of this is an intended consequence just as the allies did not expect German Nationalism to rise, but it did.
The world of unintended consequences is littered with good intentioned deals.

...and we have scholars of history so that supposedly we can learn from the lessons of history.

I say supposedly. The last quarter of a century has seen some old habits in the Middle East return. Intervention turn sour etc. Do we really learn lessons?

Just because we have Facebook and breakfast telly, this doesn't mean that austerity Britain can not breed a new nationalism.

kabayiri

cogito wrote: »

It's a fallacy to say that the UK is moving to the right. It's pretty clear that the Conservatives have taken the centre ground from Labour who have moved sharply to the left.

It's only people like yourself who think that the vote to leave the EU is an outbreak of patriotic nationalism when it's nothing of the kind. The British people have simply voted to remove themselves from an organisation to which we never truly belonged and would never have joined in the first place but for mendacious politicians like Heath and Wilson.

I agree that you can't make direct comparison, but there is an element of populism which underpins the votes here and in Trump-led USA.

There is this "anti-establishment mantra" which people lap up. In SNP land they abbreviate this as 'Westminster'

The old right-left division lines seem inapplicable somehow.

cogito

kabayiri wrote: »

I agree that you can't make direct comparison, but there is an element of populism which underpins the votes here and in Trump-led USA.

There is this "anti-establishment mantra" which people lap up. In SNP land they abbreviate this as 'Westminster'

The old right-left division lines seem inapplicable somehow.

There is an element of populism, I agree, but what are its causes? I believe that it stems from the liberal fascists who believe that they are wholly in the right and that any disagreement with them means that whoever disagrees simply needs educating until they come around to the correct point of view. People in both the UK and USA have had their views disregared by these people and have now responded in the only way open to them at the ballot box.

We also seem to have a situation which has developed since the referendum in that those who voted leave feel vindicated by the nonsense spewed at them by the likes of Juncker and Tusk as well as quisling types likes Farron and Blair and that many who voted remain have begun to see what the EU really is. I'm not sure that this is populism as much as a people who believe that we should be in charge of our own destiny and are rallying round the government to send a message to the EU.

Arklight

cogito wrote: »

It's a fallacy to say that the UK is moving to the right. It's pretty clear that the Conservatives have taken the centre ground from Labour who have moved sharply to the left.

It's only people like yourself who think that the vote to leave the EU is an outbreak of patriotic nationalism when it's nothing of the kind. The British people have simply voted to remove themselves from an organisation to which we never truly belonged and would never have joined in the first place but for mendacious politicians like Heath and Wilson.

The majority of under 40s want the UK to be part of the EU, and nationally only 33% of those eligible to vote, voted Leave. So your claims of having the backing of "the British People" are hollow to say the least.


Brexiteers narrowly won a referendum based on misinformation and lies. Your side has an absolute mountain to climb to deliver on any of the outlandish promises made. As Liam Fox has now said there will be no new money at all for the NHS, let alone £350 million a week, and Amber Rudd has already given up on reducing immigration - one wonders what actually will be left.