If we vote for Brexit what happens

Rinoa

WengerIn wrote: »

It would and while I believe trade under WTO rules is the most likely outcome there is a chance that the sovereign nations of the EU will decide to break those rules or maybe interpret them in an unusual way. Countries are being taken to arbitration at the WTO all the time, a long winded process which can seriously stuff up your economy in the meantime.



Absolutely right. As other countries that are outside the EU have never been members of the Single Market they have supply chains that are set up not to be in the Single Market.

However the UK is a member of the Single Market and the companies operating in the UK have supply chains that have developed over the last 25 years as a part of the single market.

I posted before the impact of a 10% import duty on the UK's car industry. Now the reality is a bit more complex because if you import from the EU, add value to that thing and then re-export it you only pay duty on the added value, you don't pay a second lot of duty. In some respects that's worse because a bit of tax isn't much of a problem for a company: tariffs would lead to a wind down of the UK's car industry by a lack of future investment rather than companies simply leaving.

What is a problem is a load of extra bureaucracy and paperwork. It's difficult, unpredictable and expensive.

Also don't forget that if you tailor the rules properly then you can still stitch up the UK within WTO trade rules. For example you could introduce a rule to say that 'systemically important' Euro settlement has to happen within the EU and set the rules so that only the UK-based settlers of Euro derivatives fall into them. As the LCH is by far the biggest ex-EU Central Counterparty it would be laughably simple to do it and very easy to justify.

As a remainer you're always going to find negatives if you look for them, but it's stretching it to assume the EU will break international rules to spite us. What you also fail to grasp is that not all EU countries are in the same position. Some won't be hurt by a loss of UK trade, others are virtually dependent on it. The 27 won't be united for very long if the EU starts playing games with individual members economies.

As Angela Merkel recently said '...the EU needs the UK'

WengerIn

Rinoa wrote: »

As a remainer you're always going to find negatives if you look for them, but it's stretching it to assume the EU will break international rules to spite us. What you also fail to grasp is that not all EU countries are in the same position. Some won't be hurt by a loss of UK trade, others are virtually dependent on it. The 27 won't be united for very long if the EU starts playing games with individual members economies.

As Angela Merkel recently said '...the EU needs the UK'

I agree that countries will have different levels of trade. Which one or ones do you think are virtually dependent on trade with the UK?

I can think of three EU countries that the UK is actually dependent on because we get our food from there (Spain & NL) or our electricity (France) but not one that is economically dependent on exports to the UK.

Private_Church

WengerIn wrote: »

Anyway, in actual news rather than just making stuff up:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/theresa-may-brexit-tactics-wrong-eu-former-greek-finance-minister-yanis-varoufakis-a7721151.html

Varoufakis, who has had quite a bit of experience in negotiating with the EU reckons there'll be no agreement with the UK and EU on Brexit of substance.

Quite often its not what people post its what they choose not to post as to what the real truth is.

Varoufakis also went on to say "For all their concerns with rules, treaties, processes, competitiveness, freedom of movement, terrorism etc, only one prospect truly terrifies the EU’s deep establishment: democracy. They speak in its name to exorcise it, and suppress it by six innovative tactics, as May is about to discover.

Seems you are happy to forego democracy purely on the basis of money.Maybe you personally are set to take a large financial hit from Brexit so happy to give up democracy but I'm not so if need be bring on a no deal and WTO rules.. Looking long term please enlighten me as to where the EU is going because currently is a complete shambles.

As always remain voters ignore the real problems/issues with the EU and just claim it will be worse outside ..Its laughable ,ignore the fire raging in the house and instead deal with the burst tap in the kitchen ...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/03/the-six-brexit-traps-that-will-defeat-theresa-may

WengerIn

Private_Church wrote: »

Quite often its not what people post its what they choose not to post as to what the real truth is.

Varoufakis also went on to say "For all their concerns with rules, treaties, processes, competitiveness, freedom of movement, terrorism etc, only one prospect truly terrifies the EU’s deep establishment: democracy. They speak in its name to exorcise it, and suppress it by six innovative tactics, as May is about to discover.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/03/the-six-brexit-traps-that-will-defeat-theresa-may

He definitely said that but we're only allowed by our masters to post 2 paragraphs so I posted what I felt was important.

Does that change my point in any way, my point being that the UK is likely to leave the EU with no agreement? I don't see how it does.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

WengerIn wrote: »

I agree that countries will have different levels of trade. Which one or ones do you think are virtually dependent on trade with the UK?

I can think of three EU countries that the UK is actually dependent on because we get our food from there (Spain & NL) or our electricity (France) but not one that is economically dependent on exports to the UK.

Are you deliberately being disingenuous or merely ignorant of the facts?
You think the UK dependent as above?

Food imports:
From Spain 5.1% and from Holland 5.9%
See page 6 here: www.leeds.ac.uk/download/481/british_food_makers_report

Do you not remember the recent crisis? The Spanish crop failures?
Did YOU go without anything, because we didn't here. Imports came from elsewhere, just as we could easily replace Dutch & Danish bacon if we wanted or needed to.


Electricity?
Between both France and Holland imports amounted to 5.8% in 2015.
http://www.energy-uk.org.uk/energy-industry/electricity-generation.html
Hardly what could be described as "dependent" then.

I have no problem with you having an opinion or with you having a point of view.
But if you are going to bandy about suggestions (as in that the UK is dependent) you could at least be accurate.

WengerIn

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Are you deliberately being disingenuous or merely ignorant of the facts?
You think the UK dependent as above?

Food imports:
From Spain 5.1% and from Holland 5.9%
See page 6 here: www.leeds.ac.uk/download/481/british_food_makers_report

Do you not remember the recent crisis? The Spanish crop failures?
Did YOU go without anything, because we didn't here. Imports came from elsewhere, just as we could easily replace Dutch & Danish bacon if we wanted or needed to.


Electricity?
Between both France and Holland imports amounted to 5.8% in 2015.
http://www.energy-uk.org.uk/energy-industry/electricity-generation.html
Hardly what could be described as "dependent" then.

I have no problem with you having an opinion or with you having a point of view.
But if you are going to bandy about suggestions (as in that the UK is dependent) you could at least be accurate.

Great. So we've established that you're happy to reduce your dinner by 11% and your electricity consumption, concentrated at peak times because that's when we import power, by 6%.

Do you expect everyone else to do the same? If not what's the plan? British winters are cold, brrrrr. A cold shower in the morning isn't very appealing.

Pro-Brexit posters here do seem to keep making my point for me. Yeah, if you cut off food and power imports from Europe they'll be a little bit poorer but you'll be very cold and very hungry.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

WengerIn wrote: »

Great. So we've established that you're happy to reduce your dinner by 11% and your electricity consumption, concentrated at peak times because that's when we import power, by 6%.

Do you expect everyone else to do the same? If not what's the plan? British winters are cold, brrrrr. A cold shower in the morning isn't very appealing.

Pro-Brexit posters here do seem to keep making my point for me. Yeah, if you cut off food and power imports from Europe they'll be a little bit poorer but you'll be very cold and very hungry.

Pro-Brexit my doo-dah.
Whether pro- or anti- has nothing at all to do with the facts facing you.
None of the facts suggest that anyone will " reduce your dinner by 11% and your electricity consumption, concentrated at peak times because that's when we import power, by 6%."
Provide links please of where suggests these?

So, HAVE you been short of food during the recent Spanish crisis?
Do you seriously believe you will as a result of Brexit become deprived of either food OR electricity?
You're simply being alarmist.
Would you like us all to wear a tinfoil hat?

kabayiri

What do we think is the EU's end goal here?

I'm genuinely curious.

I find the 1919-45 period of German history fascinating. I'm sure the victors from the first World War did not intend that the end goal of their policy towards Germany was to create a fascist state on their doorstep.

With this in mind, what do you actually do with a post-Brexit UK, as the EU?

Tromking

kabayiri wrote: »

What do we think is the EU's end goal here?

I'm genuinely curious.

I find the 1919-45 period of German history fascinating. I'm sure the victors from the first World War did not intend that the end goal of their policy towards Germany was to create a fascist state on their doorstep.

With this in mind, what do you actually do with a post-Brexit UK, as the EU?

The end goal was and probably still is to create a supranational federal European state that the UK would find really difficult not to be a part of.
It remains to be seen as to whether their current trevails re. the UK are terminal.
I think its stretching the concept too far to describe what is in my opinion a relatively benign entity (the EU) as a fascist state.
My issues with the EU are its lack of politcal accountability and its recent apparent dominance by one nation, namely Germany.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

The news recently has been full of French election woes and EU belligerence - but no-one has mentioned the election in Germany today.

In Schleswig-Holstein (Germany's most northerly state) elections today are being seen as a test to Angela Merkel's popularity; more-so since the opposition SPD have held control for the past five years.

Observers say there is a good chance a different coalition will be voted in, with possibilities including a partnership between the SPD, the Greens and the Free Democratic Party (FDP), or a coalition of the CDU, the Greens and the FDP.

http://www.dw.com/en/polls-open-in-schleswig-holstein-state-election/a-38738882