If we vote for Brexit what happens

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Filo25 wrote: »

The UK's best hope is that EU unity starts to crumble as we get into the nitty gritty of negotiating a deal, and we start to see clearer divisions between the various nations in how they approach the deal.

If that doesn't happen though people can talk about the trade surplus for the EU with the UK as much as they like, but in terms of size of economies the boot is very much on the EU's foot (we are more exposed to the EU economy than they are to the UK one) and due to the red lines we have drawn, it may come down to a choice between a bad deal and no deal, and I haven't seen much sign of realism from anyone on how disruptive no deal would be to the UK economy (and to a lesser extent parts of the EU economy as well).

Nobody is saying we won't continue to trade with the EU in the absence of a deal, but that trade will become more expensive and more bureaucratic, and current supply chains will be disrupted, Ireland is the obvious EU country which will suffer major negative consequences as well.

Just to reiterate, like pretty much everyone else here I am hoping we achieve a good deal, I have just never shared the optimism that it is likely to be achieved given the red lines we have seemingly drawn in negotiations.

I would counter that with that it is perhaps in the EU's best interests that their unity starts to crumble since this at least would provide some degree of leeway for discussions going forward, rather than the immovable stance so far being presented.

If that doesn't happen - and whilst it may indeed be correct that the UK is more exposed to the EU economy than the EU are to the UK's - a no-deal Brexit might in the short term indeed cause problems for the UK economy.
What you do not however consider is that the UK would be free of EU restrictions and so be able to adapt much more quickly and freely than the remaining EU27.

For example we may use USA pork and bacon rather than Dutch and Danish, but how soon will these Dutch and Danes be able to compensate for the loss of UK trade within the constraints of EU guidelines?
We may source Egyptian & other north African fruit and vegetables rather than Spanish, and again how soon will Spain be able to compensate for the loss of British trade?

We would be free to barter and trade with whoever we wish ........ whilst the EU will have to abide by their own overly-bureaucratic rules.

As you say, I too hope that agreement is forthcoming.
I do not however share the deep pessimism displayed by so many because although I accept (as I have said many, many times before) that there may indeed be difficult times ahead, the UK can and will flourish once freed of the constraints of the EU.

That is not based upon blind belief.
It is based upon evidence so far.

WengerIn

vivatifosi wrote: »

I didn't get the impression (rightly or wrongly on my part) from reading the notes from FAZ and Forbes that she was saying that she could get a deal in a couple of months, more that she would have liked to have solved one particular part: ie the rights of emigrants and immigrants, in June.

Given that there is supposedly willingness on both sides for this and comments by both that they would like it resolved sooner rather than later, I don't see why that is an unreasonable timescale

One way to refuse to negotiate is simply to let the clock run out. We're through 4.7% of the negotiating period and have agreed......nothing! We can't even agree on what we're negotiating yet. By the time the election happens we're about 10% of the way through the negotiating period.

The EU wants agreement on 2 things: EU citizens living in the UK having proper rights to remain and future UK payments into the EU budget and frankly the second of those two is optional. Beyond that I don't think they want an agreement.

Try to think about this using game theory. If you're a Spanish politician do you think there's more to be gained from taking a hard line approach to Brexit or a soft one? Spain's exports to Britain, including tourism, might be a couple of percent of GDP and a fair chunk of that spend goes to British-owned businesses in Spain. Against that 2% or something is Gibraltar which is incredibly important to the Spanish and that most of that 2% is earned by a very small number of people in southern Spain.

Go through the 27 one by one. Some will gain from voting with Britain but don't forget that with QMV Britain needs representatives of 70% of the population of the EU to vote Si!. It doesn't take a lot of Non! for there to be no agreement. Also Britain has basically nothing to offer the single EU member states. Britain has no chance of reciprocation in this deal.

From a deal-making point of view this is horrible.

Rinoa

Interesting discussion on TalkRadio claiming Juncker was the source of the leak and that individual heads of government aren't too impressed.

Many countries have a lot riding on a successful conclusion to Brexit and the discussion suggested Juncker hasn't done himself any favours. Negotiating power could now possibly shift to the council of ministers ie heads of member states.

http://talkradio.co.uk/news/jean-claude-juncker-has-damaged-himself-leaking-brexit-dinner-details-press-says-trade

mystic_trev

Rinoa wrote: »

Interesting discussion on TalkRadio claiming Juncker was the source of the leak and that individual heads of government aren't too impressed.

Perhaps he'd overdone the Cognac?

kabayiri

Herzlos wrote: »

Because it's been public knowledge for a long time that Mays team don't seem to understand the scale of things. You can go in with an open mind, as well as bringing along some evidence that things aren't the way your counterparts seem to think it is.

I mean, should be just bumble about as unprepared as May is?

There's no public knowledge whatsoever.

The government do not have to tell you; I; or Joe Jacks anything about the detailed discussions.

This leaves the dripfeed of information via leaks and rumour.

If you don't like this, vote for a party which will take video camers and web access in to all the meeting rooms.

(You won't find one which would entertain anything like that)

TrickyTree83

Filo25 wrote: »

The UK's best hope is that EU unity starts to crumble as we get into the nitty gritty of negotiating a deal, and we start to see clearer divisions between the various nations in how they approach the deal.

If that doesn't happen though people can talk about the trade surplus for the EU with the UK as much as they like, but in terms of size of economies the boot is very much on the EU's foot (we are more exposed to the EU economy than they are to the UK one) and due to the red lines we have drawn, it may come down to a choice between a bad deal and no deal, and I haven't seen much sign of realism from anyone on how disruptive no deal would be to the UK economy (and to a lesser extent parts of the EU economy as well).

Nobody is saying we won't continue to trade with the EU in the absence of a deal, but that trade will become more expensive and more bureaucratic, and current supply chains will be disrupted, Ireland is the obvious EU country which will suffer major negative consequences as well.

Just to reiterate, like pretty much everyone else here I am hoping we achieve a good deal, I have just never shared the optimism that it is likely to be achieved given the red lines we have seemingly drawn in negotiations.

Have to issue a correction there, the part in bold is not correct when you look at the impact on the individual member states. Particularly those who are net contributors to the EU budget, therefore those who are net beneficiaries are also subject to a decrease in wealth under WTO terms indirectly by a large risk presented to the net contributing economies within the EU.

Neither party holds sway over the other in my view. It's in our mutual interest (as nation states) to have as good a deal as possible, particularly with the net contributors to the EU budget. The institutions that stand in the way of such an agreement are those of the EU itself.

Fella

Rinoa wrote: »

Interesting discussion on TalkRadio claiming Juncker was the source of the leak and that individual heads of government aren't too impressed.

Many countries have a lot riding on a successful conclusion to Brexit and the discussion suggested Juncker hasn't done himself any favours. Negotiating power could now possibly shift to the council of ministers ie heads of member states.

http://talkradio.co.uk/news/jean-claude-juncker-has-damaged-himself-leaking-brexit-dinner-details-press-says-trade

Highly plausible. The tough talk re Brexit has always been from the EU officials such as Juncker in contrast to the dialog from Merkel etc who have a voting public to keep happy.

This is a bit of mischief from the EU, clearly prompted by dismay on their part at the prospect of a UK election result which might allow May to negotiate as she likes, versus the previous prospect of her every turn being hamstrung by her slim commons majority & the scandalous behaviour of the Lords.

Rinoa

Theresa May will lead UK Brexit negotiations.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-may-idUKKBN17Y11X?rpc=401&

I'm happy with that.

Quasar

Rinoa wrote: »

Theresa May will lead UK Brexit negotiations.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-may-idUKKBN17Y11X?rpc=401&

I'm happy with that.

I do think that we are still just at the stage of posturing and sabre-rattling. Comes the time to get down to business, both sides will be keen to agree on the many things (and there ARE many) that will ensure a smooth Brexit and feasible deals. Whatever one may think of the EU negotiators and their UK counterparts, they are all far from stupid and not all gung-ho-whatever like so many Leavers and Remainers.

Rinoa

Meanwhile.

Manufacturing growth at 3 year high.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39777755