If we vote for Brexit what happens

A_Medium_Size_Jock

By around 7pm our time the outcome of the first round of the French Presidential Election should become apparent.
The Spectator acknowledges that - regardless of outcome - the French system is in deep trouble:

So is France in crisis? It remains one of the world’s richest, most powerful and most active states, which should make us beware excessive pessimism. The historian Emile Chabal has noted that the French often talk up crisis as ‘a key catalyst’ for change. But this time the crisis is more than just rhetoric: many voters really have lost faith in the established parties and see change as coming from outside the system.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/02/frances-long-stalemate-is-on-the-verge-of-a-complete-breakdown/#

CKhalvashi

Love how the Torygraph and Daily Heil are convincing themselves that Le Pen will win.

Just so you heard it here first, it's very unlikely

Filo25

CKhalvashi wrote: »

Love how the Torygraph and Daily Heil are convincing themselves that Le Pen will win.

Just so you heard it here first, it's very unlikely

It would be a big shock if the second round was even close!

Macron should win pretty comfortably unless some shocking event happens in the next couple of weeks.

CKhalvashi

Filo25 wrote: »

It would be a big shock if the second round was even close!

Macron should win pretty comfortably unless some shocking event happens in the next couple of weeks.

Agreed.

I think the issue we're seeing closer to home is the 'best of a bad bunch'. In normal circumstances in this election, I'd err on the side of the Conservatives, however I think we agree that we don't live in normal times.

I'm also personally finding that I'm finding no political party to neatly fit into. I will back the Lib Dems as far as an EEA agreement goes (outside the customs union if this is all about trade as UKIP and the Conservatives say), plus the tax rise for the NHS, however I don't agree in other areas.

For balance on an earlier point made, I also agree with the EU that this is May's opportunistic power grab, but I also think that they shouldn't have said it.

Interestingly too, the Express (well known for Euroscepticism) is putting the Tories on 49%, Lib Dems on 33% and Labour on just 10% (poll currently around 90k). This poll isn't going to be representative of the country, I get that, I'm just pointing out that it's interesting.

I note the Conservatives are refusing to clarify their tax policy, refusing to rule out attacks to the incomes of pensioners and are having problems with Boris again. How well this will or won't work when it comes to taking Labour Leave seats (which lets face it, they're going to need for their plan to work) is going to be interesting, too.

vivatifosi

I heard on R4 over the weekend that the triple lock, rather than being meticulously researched, was made up on the hoof by Cameron and his gang at a time that they had a gap in the agenda and wanted something new to announce.

There's an interesting paper on the cost of the Triple Lock which was accidentally released and then quickly taken down in 2015. It is reproduced in full here:

http://paullewismoney.blogspot.co.uk/2015/10/gad-on-triple-lock.html

CKhalvashi

vivatifosi wrote: »

I heard on R4 over the weekend that the triple lock, rather than being meticulously researched, was made up on the hoof by Cameron and his gang at a time that they had a gap in the agenda and wanted something new to announce.

There's an interesting paper on the cost of the Triple Lock which was accidentally released and then quickly taken down in 2015. It is reproduced in full here:

http://paullewismoney.blogspot.co.uk/2015/10/gad-on-triple-lock.html

Will take a look later; going to a meeting very soon and haven't actually been to bed due to various work reasons (although aiming to be done and dusted for the day by 12).

There was something else regarding a 'capped drawdown' pension where pensioners could lose a further 10%ish of their income IIRC as a result of a potential rate change by HMRC. No idea how many of these are in circulation, but that could turn nasty in the short term.

No idea why HMRC would want to do this though at a time they're going to need all the money they can get. Maybe the idea is to save from the state pension what they'd ordinarily be losing in tax?

Another point to highlight is the 10% income drop of many NHS workers (possibly police and councils too) in real terms. MPs voted for a rise to £74000 (more than 10%) plus annual inflation since then.

mrginge

vivatifosi wrote: »

I heard on R4 over the weekend that the triple lock, rather than being meticulously researched, was made up on the hoof by Cameron and his gang at a time that they had a gap in the agenda and wanted something new to announce.

Pretty much all Cameron's policies were made this way.

antrobus

mrginge wrote: »

Pretty much all Cameron's policies were made this way.

According to the HoC Briefing paper Number CBP-07812, 24 February 2017 - State Pension triple lock;

"In its election manifesto, the Conservative Party said it would restore the earnings link. The Liberal Democrats said they would uprate the state pension annually by “whichever is the higher of growth in earnings, growth in prices or 2.5 per cent.”

Thus it was in the Coalition Agreement, but it was a Liberal Democrat policy, not Cameron's.

davomcdave

antrobus wrote: »

According to the HoC Briefing paper Number CBP-07812, 24 February 2017 - State Pension triple lock;

"In its election manifesto, the Conservative Party said it would restore the earnings link. The Liberal Democrats said they would uprate the state pension annually by “whichever is the higher of growth in earnings, growth in prices or 2.5 per cent.”

Thus it was in the Coalition Agreement, but it was a Liberal Democrat policy, not Cameron's.

The Lib Dems got to make some policy, even if it was bad policy. Who knew?

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Well the markets etc. have all rallied as a result of Macron's result in the French presidential election and it does look increasingly unlikely that Le Pen will win against him, so the powers that be within the EU are no doubt also breathing a large sigh of relief.

But there are two good reasons a Macron win could still be good for the UK in its Brexit negotiations.

there is less reason to punish the UK in upcoming negotiations as a deterrent to other would-be leavers.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39691352

So what has the French presidential election told us that we did not already know?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39691111