If we vote for Brexit what happens

Thrugelmir

wotsthat wrote: »

The question of the EU divides the Tories more than most.

Doesn't appear to be many Labour MP's of stature left to debate the topic in a meaningful way. All very absent last June.

wotsthat

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Doesn't appear to be many Labour MP's of stature left to debate the topic in a meaningful way. All very absent last June.

Well of course. She wouldn't have called an election if she thought labour would win. She's called an election to try and get control of her own party.

A tactic borrowed from David Cameron. How did that work out for him?

CKhalvashi

Just so that this is on record, I'm predicting a hung Parliament with major Con losses in the SW, and some gains in the North.

I think it's safe to say that this is the first election where noone knows what will actually happen for a very long time (although there are 2 likely scenarios)

I think we're going to end up with a Con minority with somewhere between 310 and 315 seats, with Labour on about 220, Lib Dems 35-40.

I could be wrong (I have been before), but it's just my gut feeling taking into account both what the polls are saying, but also that any swing to anyone will be by no means uniform.

Thrugelmir

CKhalvashi wrote: »

I think we're going to end up with a Con minority with somewhere between 310 and 315 seats, with Labour on about 220, Lib Dems 35-40.

Conservatives lose 30 and Labour only 9..........

If the axis is a leave\remain vote. Then it's Labour who'll suffer the brunt.

CKhalvashi

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Conservatives lose 30 and Labour only 9..........

If the axis is a leave\remain vote. Then it's Labour who'll suffer the brunt.

That is possibly a point, actually, it's closer the 15-20 mark though.

CK doesn't know, although looking at Stoke Central, Labour kept 94.4% of their vote. I can't really ask for a more stereotypical Labour seat to base that on. In Copeland, (another traditional Labour stronghold) it was 89.4%, so losses of about 7.5% averaged.

Cons averaged about 5% (actually 5.2%) gains between the two, however may well take hits in their own heartlands, especially the Remain-voting parts. This is taking a look at earlier results in both Witney (voted Remain) and Richmond Park (voted Remain).

So, this will be fought largely on the SW and North, with some 2/3 way marginals being up for the take could see that prediction come true.

I don't see any Labour gains, but also don't see losses as being anywhere near what you (and the polls) may predict, as the Cons are gaining less (in percentage terms) than Labour are losing. It's pointless to take a massively increased share of the vote in either a seat you hold, or one you're not within 15-20% of unless in the case of the latter you're in a position to topple that, especially through vote splitting.

In my area, there are a lot of Con Remain voters paired with Labour Leave voters, so while at the moment it's likely the Cons will keep the seat, there are many much more marginal seats where this may not be the case.

Can I just add that I live in a town with largely Con Remain voters, so this may have skewered my thinking a little.

ETA: Can I also predict that the LDs won't lose a deposit anywhere in the UK, as happened in 2010 (I believe both Labour and the Cons both lost 1)

Moby

CKhalvashi wrote: »

Just so that this is on record, I'm predicting a hung Parliament with major Con losses in the SW, and some gains in the North.

I think it's safe to say that this is the first election where noone knows what will actually happen for a very long time (although there are 2 likely scenarios)

I think we're going to end up with a Con minority with somewhere between 310 and 315 seats, with Labour on about 220, Lib Dems 35-40.

I could be wrong (I have been before), but it's just my gut feeling taking into account both what the polls are saying, but also that any swing to anyone will be by no means uniform.

I'd like to believe you were right but it is pretty clear May will have a huge majority of 80-100 seats. I'm thinking this will free her hand and get the idealogue loons of her back. She is pragmatic and will hardly want to steer us away from the huge market on our doorstep despite her 'Brexit means brexit' rhetoric!

TrickyTree83

Moby wrote: »

I'd like to believe you were right but it is pretty clear May will have a huge majority of 80-100 seats. I'm thinking this will free her hand and get the idealogue loons of her back. She is pragmatic and will hardly want to steer us away from the huge market on our doorstep despite her 'Brexit means brexit' rhetoric!

I love the way you guys think, I wouldn't want to be that way but it does amuse.

One moment you slag her off, she's a tyrant and a hater of the poor.

The next she's an insider, a closet remain supporter, manoeuvring for EEA membership by means of a GE. I see some journalists have propagated this fantasy, is that where you picked it up from?

It's far more likely and accurate given what is actually known that she wants a larger majority so the likes of Soubury, Clarke, et al can no longer be influential in rebellion.

But you carry on, please, it lightens up some dreary afternoons.

kabayiri

mrginge wrote: »

Let's be nice.

There's plenty of marginal remainers out there that aren't quite as desperate as some on here. They're the ones that have the big decision to make.
I find it actually quite refreshing. They decided to stick with the status quo before, but now they have to make an actual change decision. Back the tories who will probably deliver a hard-ish Brexit but are at least competent. Back anyone else (doesn't matter who) and risk years of ineffective coalition and economic mismanagement, while *maybe* clinging onto the Single Market.

Vote for any other mainstream party than Tory and you're essentially admitting defeat to tackling the deficit.

Our descendants will not thank us for passing on the mother of all debts.

kabayiri

CKhalvashi wrote: »

...
CK doesn't know, although looking at Stoke Central, Labour kept 94.4% of their vote. I can't really ask for a more stereotypical Labour seat to base that on. In Copeland, (another traditional Labour stronghold) it was 89.4%, so losses of about 7.5% averaged.
...

Labour has nothing to offer the people of Stoke IMO. You only have to visit the place to see that.

It's clear that Corbyn does not either understand or care about the issues people face outside London/home counties. The party campaigners would be well served by keeping off the doorsteps in places like Stoke.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

I see our usual suspect above suggests a hung parliament!
Thanks, CK - you have given me the biggest LOL I've had in a long, long time.

We know polls can be wrong.
We know opinions can change.
But to the degree you suggest is nothing short of fantasy.
Barring an as yet discovered disaster, everything points towards the Tories increasing their majority significantly.