If we vote for Brexit what happens

BobQ

mrginge wrote: »

Does being thick or gullible influence the result to a greater, lesser or equal extent than being black, gay, called Steve, living in Kent, having three kids ...etc.

If we accept the analysis that thickos predominantly voted to leave , then does it mean -
the result was wrong and we should amend it?
we should stop thick people from voting?
there are just more thick people or more of them went out and voted?
The factors being debated affected thickos more than clever people?


Surely all you clever people out there can see that it's no good just trotting out a statistic without using it to draw some conclusions...

First, I am not saying everyone who voted for Brexit was thick or gullible. Clearly many people voted for good reasons the way they did. I was just making the general point that intelligence etc is not a disqualification from voting in any election/referendum.

I note the evidence that education was a factor in the Brexit vote. Not sure if this is a fair measure since many intelligent people do not have higher educational qualifications and older people are less likely to have had higher education.

Any of the characteristics you mention are likely to have an differential distribution of the vote (apart perhaps from being called Steve!) The evidence is that the older you were the more likely you were to vote leave. If you accept that educational qualifications (which are easier to measure than intelligence) broadly equates to intelligence (which is a crude assumption I accept) then it was also the case that the better educated voted to remain. Were they right? Who knows.

My view is that a lot of people voted leave because they believed that they were be better off by doing so. It does not really matter if they were clever and doing so because they hate the EU's democracy or thick and thought that stopping immigration would prevent the common cold. The result is the same.

I do however think that the case for Brexit was won by convincing people that it would improve their lot. If it fails to improve their lot those voting leave will only have themselves to blame. Those who believed for example that it would remove the need for immigration, save the NHS, isolate us from the EU economies or come without an economic price to the UK, are in for a shock.

BobQ

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/04/more-from-my-brexit-research/

May be of interest. Extensive poll on voting patterns, policy priorities and the EU by Lord Ashcroft

davomcdave

BobQ wrote: »

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/04/more-from-my-brexit-research/

May be of interest. Extensive poll on voting patterns, policy priorities and the EU by Lord Ashcroft

Sorry to go off topic but it is interesting that he sees a relatively small shift in vote for the Tories and Labour but as they are in opposite directions it would lead to a Tory landslide.

Lord Ashcroft is great for paying for all this. He just does it for personal interest these days AIUI and then shares with the great unwashed.

davomcdave

Conrad wrote: »

'Brexit, which has made it cheaper to import groceries from the UK, is the main cause'


But, but, but..........

That's what happens when your currency falls in value: imports are more expensive for you and exports are cheaper for foreigners. Your exports increase in volume and you can't afford to buy as much from abroad so your living standards fall. We've seen it in the data: a year ago real wages (i.e. adjusted for inflation) were rising quickly and now they're stagnant. When inflation finishes off its rise as a result of Brexit over the next 6 months or so we should see living standards start to fall before they level out at a slightly lower level.

It's all going as predicted. One of the best known effects is changes in FX rates and trade volumes. Good news! Your trade deficit has been reduced because your fellow countrymen can't afford to buy as much and foreigners can afford to buy more. You've all gotten poorer.

Herzlos

BobQ wrote: »

First, I am not saying everyone who voted for Brexit was thick or gullible.

To be fair to everyone, the extent of lying in the campaigns (predominantly from the Leave side, though Remain hammed it up a bit too) was unprecedented.
It's very easy to be swayed when you assume that the arguments have some basis in fact, and everything is appealing to emotion rather than logic. Sovereignty, NHS, "taking back control", etc.

Tromking

BobQ wrote: »

I do however think that the case for Brexit was won by convincing people that it would improve their lot. If it fails to improve their lot those voting leave will only have themselves to blame. Those who believed for example that it would remove the need for immigration, save the NHS, isolate us from the EU economies or come without an economic price to the UK, are in for a shock.

The Brexit vote was a direct manifestation of 40 odd years of British and mainland European politicians failing to make the case for the UK`s inclusion within the EU. Our relationship and views on the EU did'nt just gestate a few months before the referendum. During our membership of the EU both main political parties have dabbled in Euro-scepticism and we have a mainstream media all to ready sometimes with justification to print or report an anti-EU story.
In my opinion, those doomsayers who insist that Brexit UK will go to hell in a hardcart are the ones who are in for pleasant shock.

davomcdave

Tromking wrote: »

The Brexit vote was a direct manifestation of 40 odd years of British and mainland European politicians failing to make the case for the UK`s inclusion within the EU. Our relationship and views on the EU did'nt just gestate a few months before the referendum. During our membership of the EU both main political parties have dabbled in Euro-scepticism and we have a mainstream media all to ready sometimes with justification to print or report an anti-EU story.
In my opinion, those doomsayers who insist that Brexit UK will go to hell in a hardcart are the ones who are in for pleasant shock.

I hope you are right.

Out of interest, what do you think the biggest changes will be apart from immigration?

Herzlos

Why do you think immigration is going to change?

davomcdave

Herzlos wrote: »

Why do you think immigration is going to change?

I don't I'm just bored of talking about it.

Immigration will only fall if Brexit, or something else, ruins the economy to the extent that people don't want to go to the UK any more.

Herzlos

Fair point